ATL: EMILY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TheStormExpert]

So it strengthened 10kts in just 2hrs.

never forget ts emily that experienced RI to get us to a named system

Yep!

Either way seeing the name "Emily" again makes me wonder why the heck it wasn't retired when it made history as the earliest Cat.5 on record back in '05!? Btw, this is the seventh iteration of Emily with the majority of storms with this name being hurricanes or even majors for that matter. This likely rivals 1999's version for the most hideous version of it.

[Ivanhater]

And I remember some posting not a chance with 40-50 knots of shear

But here we are

[tolakram]

I need a few more monitors.

 https://twitter.com/NWSNHC/status/891998139925889024

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I need a few more monitors.

 https://twitter.com/NWSNHC/status/891998139925889024

My dream TC monitoring setup, lol.

[jlauderdal]

So it strengthened 10kts in just 2hrs.

never forget ts emily that experienced RI to get us to a named system

Yep!

Either way seeing the name "Emily" again makes me wonder why the heck it wasn't retired when it made history as the earliest Cat.5 on record back in '05!? Btw, this is the seventh iteration of Emily with the majority of storms with this name being hurricanes or even majors for that matter. This likely rivals 1999's version for the most hideous version of it.

its making a run at retirement today..our friends on the SW coast better not let their guard down for these precarious next few hours until this thing comes roaring onshore

[tolakram]

What is that area in yellow moving towards the lesser Antilles in this graphic.

Thread here: viewtopic.php?f=31&t=118895&p=2594217#p2594217

[Aric Dunn]

I cant say Im overly surprised. this happens more often than not near land. its clearly at TC on radar, however from satellite appearnace this would never have been upgraded ( hence my humberto post yesterday). I wonder how many countless MRD TD's that were qctually TS and how many invests were atuaclly TS...

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

HUH?! This storm is being named Emily?! I am shocked that is named after that! Oh god, please knock out Emily from the NHC's lists for the last time! I don't want to wait for six years for seeing that name again. Oh my god, but now (ah...) i had my must-be-retired bets now in Gert and also Harvey.

[Wakeknight]

NorthJax, I'm a good 14 miles inland from the coast so I'm sure that my friends and family closer to Siesta Key and Casey Key are getting a bit more of a lashing. I think pressures will drop fast enough to get named then be ashore by 6 p.m. tonight. It is going to be one heck of a rain maker and I'm afraid we're so saturated that the flooding will be unreal. I'll try to take pictures while I'm out making sales calls if there is anything notable.

Edit to add: Oh, and the center is now hitting the 87-89 degree water temps off our coast.

I can confirm this. I am .8 miles from Casey Key, west of 41. Heavy on and off all night.

[ronjon]

Emily is racing east - could be onshore by 12 noon.

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=TBW&loop=yes

[caneman]

That escalated quickly.

Here in Fort Myers. This thing is amazing. Fired up fast with no real warning. Some nasty squalls overnight now a huge rain shield. Tampa may get landfall but we are getting all the rain. Fire danger today: -9.

We're getting hammered pretty good along st. Pete and Clearwater beaches

[Emmett_Brown]

One thing to remember about the Florida peninsula is that storms can retain organization while crossing it, or even form over it as we saw last year with TS Julia. Local daytime convection can play a role as well. It will be interesting to see how Emily interacts with very moist FL landmass today.

[wxman57]

Looks like I failed to account for the NHC shift rotation in my development chances. Stacy Stewart is know for being a bit liberal when classifying a system. There are a lot of obs across the eastern Gulf. Peak winds I've found so far are 25 kts SE of the center. Remember, it was upgraded based on Doppler-estimated winds at up to 6500 ft above the surface, not on true surface obs. What squalls there were near the center have since dissipated, which should prohibit any strengthening. The only threat to Florida will be heavy rainfall today

[Patrick99]

Was not expecting this, but I guess this is what can happen when you get a stalled front during hurricane season.

[Ivanhater]

5 named storms before Aug 1st and some are posting season cancel posts.

[jlauderdal]

Looks like I failed to account for the NHC shift rotation in my development chances. Stacy Stewart is know for being a bit liberal when classifying a system. There are a lot of obs across the eastern Gulf. Peak winds I've found so far are 25 kts SE of the center. Remember, it was upgraded based on Doppler-estimated winds at up to 6500 ft above the surface, not on true surface obs. What squalls there were near the center have since dissipated, which should prohibit any strengthening. The only threat to Florida will be heavy rainfall today

i demand recon

[tolakram]

Station VENF1 showing sustained 30MPH winds now.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=venf1

or

https://www.wunderground.com/MAR/buoy/VENF1.html

[Stormcenter]

So I guess the million dollar models missed this one.

[Aric Dunn]

Low level "steering" this morning is a little odd. not sure I see a large counter clockwise low to mid level flow in the western gulf? in any account this has a very narrow window to escape with building hights to the north it can really only folow the weakness left along through axis. I have seen a few of the models stall out which would make a major rain issues at the least.

[tolakram]

Saved radar image. Looks like it will be onshore very soon.