ATL: HARVEY - Models

[Kingarabian]

Bad ugly devestating run..not over a major city like Galveston / Houston but any deviation north and wow...

Yeah everyone here should start prepping now and beat the rush. The 00z Euro run will be the nail in the coffin and the TWO track will shift considerably. Pretty sure PTCs will begin after the 00z Euro is out.

[sphelps8681]

The models still going north, and trending stronger. That is not a good sign.

No not good at all for where ever it lands.

[tailgater]

Bad news for Most of SE Texas strong storm creeping northward

[ROCK]

I'll be back after dinner to post the 00z Euro.

King you are the man!!

[AxaltaRacing24]

After seeing that I bet the NHC is typing out that PTC advisory for 2 A.M. as we speak.

[Bhuggs]

That intensity on this run.....whew. Any deviation south or north brings that into a heavily populated area....with 3 days notice. Where GFS just took it is one of the least populated spots on the gulf

[Kingarabian]

After seeing that I bet the NHC is typing out that PTC advisory for 2 A.M. as we speak.

They're going to wait for the 00z Euro as the 12z EPS were considerably further south.

[ColdMiser123]

GEM is coming north at 0z. Strong. Can't tell exact pressure off of the WSI maps.

[Alyono]

GEM is coming north at 0z. Strong. Can't tell exact pressure off of the WSI maps.

through 54 hours it is east of the 12Z, but 5mb weaker. That said, I expect it will end up stronger this run

[ColdMiser123]

Landfall just north of Brownsville on the 0z GEM.

[PTrackerLA]

Given that we are so close to this event if the Euro trends towards the GFS the western GOM could be in trouble. It sure has been a while but wow I was not expecting that GFS run .

[Steve]

Corpus Christi is the largest city in that area with close to a half million people in the MSA. I haven't been down that way since 1990. But I'd be on alert for that Euro if I'm down that way and figure out some early plans tomorrow.

[Kingarabian]

Given that we are so close to this event if the Euro trends towards the GFS the western GOM could be in trouble. It sure has been a while but wow I was not expecting that GFS run .

Not trying to freak anyone out, but if Harvey gathers itself quicker than expected after it splashes back into the water, it can come in even stronger. The GOM can support that with no problem.

[ROCK]

After seeing that I bet the NHC is typing out that PTC advisory for 2 A.M. as we speak.

Um yeah I would hope so..

[Wx_Warrior]

Most were laughing at the GFS...now it's king? Slow down until EURO hulks up.

[Kingarabian]

Most were laughing at the GFS...now it's king? Slow down until EURO hulks up.

I don't think anyone is favoring any particular model on here...

[Steve]

Most were laughing at the GFS...now it's king? Slow down until EURO hulks up.

Haha no. That's your mind in that eternal defense of the Euro. No one said it was king. It was the model running and being discussed until the CMC. And I'd guess someone will post the navgem next then the Euro.

[mcheer23]

CMC shift north. Looks like Brownsville.

[Hammy]

NAM starting to get stronger.

[Siker]

UKMET with basically a Cat 3 into Galveston:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY ANALYSED POSITION : 18.4N 85.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 22.08.2017 0 18.4N 85.6W 1008 26
1200UTC 22.08.2017 12 19.9N 87.9W 1009 25
0000UTC 23.08.2017 24 21.2N 90.2W 1009 24
1200UTC 23.08.2017 36 22.5N 91.4W 1006 25
0000UTC 24.08.2017 48 23.4N 92.1W 1001 32
1200UTC 24.08.2017 60 24.5N 92.6W 994 39
0000UTC 25.08.2017 72 25.8N 93.5W 981 53
1200UTC 25.08.2017 84 27.2N 94.5W 971 59
0000UTC 26.08.2017 96 28.7N 94.9W 961 69
1200UTC 26.08.2017 108 30.0N 94.7W 962 65
0000UTC 27.08.2017 120 31.1N 94.1W 979 40
1200UTC 27.08.2017 132 31.9N 93.0W 987 34
0000UTC 28.08.2017 144 33.5N 92.3W 991 27