ATL: MARIA - Models
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models
Not much run to run difference from the 18z
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models
tolakram wrote:Not much run to run difference from the 18z
yeah.. interesting.. still way too strong for jose.. just does not make sense..
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models
Aric Dunn wrote:tolakram wrote:Not much run to run difference from the 18z
yeah.. interesting.. still way too strong for jose.. just does not make sense..
Aric, I'm beginning to wonder if Jose truly becomes blocked at that forecasted latitude, that it just barely remains south of the quickly falling isotherms??
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models
tolakram wrote:Not much run to run difference from the 18z
Nope, none that I can see either
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models
Only significant difference I see through 72 hours is the mid low to the east of Maria is weaker.
MW
MW
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models
MWatkins wrote:Only significant difference I see through 72 hours is the mid low to the east of Maria is weaker.
MW
Jose is further west.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models
Pretty good shift east at 96 hours,feeling better at least here in south florida
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models
AtlanticWind wrote:Pretty good shift east at 96 hours,feeling better at least here in south florida
South Florida yes, Carolinas no. Jose is weaker and further west this run. The ULL in the Gulf is also stronger. These are not trends that are good to see. If this keeps up models will be showing landfall within the next few days.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models
FlyMolo wrote:AtlanticWind wrote:Pretty good shift east at 96 hours,feeling better at least here in south florida
South Florida yes, Carolinas no. Jose is weaker and further west this run. The ULL in the Gulf is also stronger. These are not trends that are good to see. If this keeps up models will be showing landfall within the next few days.
GFS even further East at 144hrs.
Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models
WeatherEmperor wrote:FlyMolo wrote:AtlanticWind wrote:Pretty good shift east at 96 hours,feeling better at least here in south florida
South Florida yes, Carolinas no. Jose is weaker and further west this run. The ULL in the Gulf is also stronger. These are not trends that are good to see. If this keeps up models will be showing landfall within the next few days.
GFS even further East at 144hrs.
Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk
I'm more interested in the overall trend than one GFS run.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models
FlyMolo wrote:AtlanticWind wrote:Pretty good shift east at 96 hours,feeling better at least here in south florida
South Florida yes, Carolinas no. Jose is weaker and further west this run. The ULL in the Gulf is also stronger. These are not trends that are good to see. If this keeps up models will be showing landfall within the next few days.
It's possible , but have a better feeling as we go on that there is a good chance this will miss the US ,
Know it's not anyway a sure thing but crossing fingers and toes after Harvey and Irma.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models
FlyMolo wrote:AtlanticWind wrote:Pretty good shift east at 96 hours,feeling better at least here in south florida
South Florida yes, Carolinas no. Jose is weaker and further west this run. The ULL in the Gulf is also stronger. These are not trends that are good to see. If this keeps up models will be showing landfall within the next few days.
Agreed. I was noticing at 114 hr. how much weaker Jose was as compared to prior runs for the same time frame. In addition to that, the Great Lakes ridging appeared to be a bit stronger than prior runs for the same time frame also. Need to look out for any quicker weakening (or pulling out entirely) of Jose as potential harbinger of future westward track adjustments
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: MARIA - Models
AtlanticWind wrote:FlyMolo wrote:AtlanticWind wrote:Pretty good shift east at 96 hours,feeling better at least here in south florida
South Florida yes, Carolinas no. Jose is weaker and further west this run. The ULL in the Gulf is also stronger. These are not trends that are good to see. If this keeps up models will be showing landfall within the next few days.
It's possible , but have a better feeling as we go on that there is a good chance this will miss the US ,
Know it's not anyway a sure thing but crossing fingers and toes after Harvey and Irma.
I'm with you 100%. Watching those images of Dominica earlier was enough for me. I want OTS as much as the next person. Fingers crossed!
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models
chaser1 wrote:FlyMolo wrote:AtlanticWind wrote:Pretty good shift east at 96 hours,feeling better at least here in south florida
South Florida yes, Carolinas no. Jose is weaker and further west this run. The ULL in the Gulf is also stronger. These are not trends that are good to see. If this keeps up models will be showing landfall within the next few days.
Agreed. I was noticing at 114 hr. how much weaker Jose was as compared to prior runs for the same time frame. In addition to that, the Great Lakes ridging appeared to be a bit stronger than prior runs for the same time frame also. Need to look out for any quicker weakening (or pulling out entirely) of Jose as potential harbinger of future westward track adjustments
I think we're on the same page! Looks like I'm staying up for the Euro again to check for agreement. I swear I never get any sleep come hurricane season.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models
look jose will keep maria between Bermuda and outterbank maybe bermuda could get windy day depend how east go ts wind i do not see them getting hurr gust their may need watch her on friday incase
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models
AtlanticWind wrote:Pretty good shift east at 96 hours,feeling better at least here in south florida
Honestly, South Florida should have steadily felt better over the past several days as the models have consistently shown no danger for us.
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models
fci wrote:AtlanticWind wrote:Pretty good shift east at 96 hours,feeling better at least here in south florida
Honestly, South Florida should have steadily felt better over the past several days as the models have consistently shown no danger for us.
I was just worried about how the models were possibly handling (or mishandling) jose
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Re: ATL: MARIA - Models
Last minute turn on gfs saves New England ,well not exactly last minute but too close for comfort
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