ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1241 Postby Blown Away » Fri Sep 01, 2017 4:09 pm

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Irma is expected to be a major hurricane when it approaches the
Lesser Antilles early next week, producing rough surf and rip
currents. Irma could also cause dangerous wind, storm surge, and
rainfall impacts on some islands, although it is too soon to specify
where and when those hazards could occur. Residents in the Lesser
Antilles should monitor the progress of Irma through the weekend and
listen to any advice given by local officials.

2. It is much too early to determine what direct impacts Irma will
have on the continental United States. Regardless, everyone in
hurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their hurricane
plan in place, as we are now near the peak of the season
.


From 5pm Disco, usually don't see this message for a system so far away...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1242 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Sep 01, 2017 4:10 pm

Based on short term trends in eye temperature following eyewall replacement, I have a feeling that Irma has the possibility of reaching 115 kt approximately 114 hours earlier than the official forecast. Overall forecast philosophy looks sound though, and I like the idea of Irma maintaining a category 3 or lower end category 4 intensity for most of the next few days.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1243 Postby Michele B » Fri Sep 01, 2017 4:10 pm

weathaguyry wrote:
Michele B wrote:
weathaguyry wrote:Just going through some stuff in my head...
I'll probably order another flashlight off of amazon later, since in sandy we had nothing but a broken, pink flashlight. Maybe we'll get another case or two of water, and maybe have the gardeners trim back any tree branches that are dead or sticking out.


I don't buy flashlights....

I buy MORE solar lawn lights! This way, I don't have a need to keep enough batteries, and they stay ready to use as long as the sun comes up!


That's a good idea, I never thought of that!


:wink:
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1244 Postby Blown Away » Fri Sep 01, 2017 4:15 pm

Image
Last visible...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1245 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Sep 01, 2017 4:16 pm

the theme from nhc for two days straight has been south and west of consensus..keep in mind they rarely bite on one model run especially gfs so it would take a few cycles of north and east for them to nudge tracks, also they only go out 120h and right now that's fairly straight forward..enjoy your labor day weekend of bashing your head against the model walls, there will be no immediate gratification regardless of your desired outcome because the models will continue to be at odds, the flow pattern is too complicated beyond 5 days especially with the unusual early season trough, seems very deep for early sept
Last edited by jlauderdal on Fri Sep 01, 2017 4:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1246 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Sep 01, 2017 4:18 pm

Wow! Great satellite presentation!! Classical tropical cyclone!
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Recon Discussion Thread

#1247 Postby Bad_Hurricane » Fri Sep 01, 2017 4:19 pm

898 to 903 mb.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1248 Postby eastcoastFL » Fri Sep 01, 2017 4:24 pm

Blown Away wrote:Image
The 5pm Disco has Irma at 19N/61W in 5 days... This map represents all named systems that moved within 65 miles of this location...


The positive side of me is glad to see most have headed out to Sea. The realistic side of me says crap still decent odds for Florida.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1249 Postby CycloneCaptain » Fri Sep 01, 2017 4:30 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:
Blown Away wrote:Image
The 5pm Disco has Irma at 19N/61W in 5 days... This map represents all named systems that moved within 65 miles of this location...


The positive side of me is glad to see most have headed out to Sea. The realistic side of me says crap still decent odds for Florida.


Agreed, Florida is an, albeit small, possibility.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1250 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Fri Sep 01, 2017 4:31 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:
Blown Away wrote:Image
The 5pm Disco has Irma at 19N/61W in 5 days... This map represents all named systems that moved within 65 miles of this location...


The positive side of me is glad to see most have headed out to Sea. The realistic side of me says crap still decent odds for Florida.


Yeah, 3 day, 4 day and 5 day plots of storms like that have South FL and Eastern NC as the most hits. You can bet we're watching Irma. Classic CV Hurricane and September set up. It's all about that trough.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Recon Discussion Thread

#1251 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Fri Sep 01, 2017 4:32 pm

919mb; highest FL wind of 144kts, highest SFMR of 128kts.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1252 Postby hohnywx » Fri Sep 01, 2017 4:36 pm

Blown Away wrote:
KEY MESSAGES:

1. Irma is expected to be a major hurricane when it approaches the
Lesser Antilles early next week, producing rough surf and rip
currents. Irma could also cause dangerous wind, storm surge, and
rainfall impacts on some islands, although it is too soon to specify
where and when those hazards could occur. Residents in the Lesser
Antilles should monitor the progress of Irma through the weekend and
listen to any advice given by local officials.

2. It is much too early to determine what direct impacts Irma will
have on the continental United States. Regardless, everyone in
hurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their hurricane
plan in place, as we are now near the peak of the season
.


From 5pm Disco, usually don't see this message for a system so far away...


The NHC must be getting innundated with requests for information regarding Irma.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1253 Postby RL3AO » Fri Sep 01, 2017 4:37 pm

hohnywx wrote:
Blown Away wrote:
KEY MESSAGES:

1. Irma is expected to be a major hurricane when it approaches the
Lesser Antilles early next week, producing rough surf and rip
currents. Irma could also cause dangerous wind, storm surge, and
rainfall impacts on some islands, although it is too soon to specify
where and when those hazards could occur. Residents in the Lesser
Antilles should monitor the progress of Irma through the weekend and
listen to any advice given by local officials.

2. It is much too early to determine what direct impacts Irma will
have on the continental United States. Regardless, everyone in
hurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their hurricane
plan in place, as we are now near the peak of the season
.


From 5pm Disco, usually don't see this message for a system so far away...


The NHC must be getting innundated with requests for information regarding Irma.


There's been a quite a few "fake news" forecasts going around on social media. NHC and NWS have tried to respond but it's hard to get that horse back in the barn.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1254 Postby BYG Jacob » Fri Sep 01, 2017 4:38 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:Image

T5.5.

She is completely insulated in moisture, wow.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1255 Postby meriland29 » Fri Sep 01, 2017 4:38 pm

I like the way NHC started their 5pm discussion ...


000
WTNT41 KNHC 012050
TCDAT1

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 PM AST Fri Sep 01 2017

Well, that eyewall replacement cycle didn't last long.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Recon Discussion Thread

#1256 Postby Kazmit » Fri Sep 01, 2017 4:39 pm

924 mb
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1257 Postby storm_in_a_teacup » Fri Sep 01, 2017 4:45 pm

BYG Jacob wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:https://i.imgur.com/LJOYHhq.gif

T5.5.

She is completely insulated in moisture, wow.


"Irma used Aqua Veil!"

...Sorry, Pokémon reference. But I mean, insulating yourself in a veil of water straight up is something I would do if I had the water-moving power of a hurricane.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1258 Postby RL3AO » Fri Sep 01, 2017 4:46 pm

meriland29 wrote:I like the way NHC started their 5pm discussion ...

Well, that eyewall replacement cycle didn't last long.


Now that James Franklin is retired, maybe Eric Blake will take the mantle for witty comments in the discussion.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1259 Postby BYG Jacob » Fri Sep 01, 2017 4:48 pm

storm_in_a_teacup wrote:
BYG Jacob wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:https://i.imgur.com/LJOYHhq.gif

T5.5.

She is completely insulated in moisture, wow.


"Irma used Aqua Veil!"

...Sorry, Pokémon reference. But I mean, insulating yourself in a veil of water straight up is something I would do if I had the water-moving power of a hurricane.

Its not something that every hurricane gets to do though.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1260 Postby Steve H. » Fri Sep 01, 2017 4:48 pm

Is Stacey Stewart still there?
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