ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[stormlover2013]

lol u got that right aric

[stormlover2013]

models going to get this right, the system is sloppy sloppy, models did good on harvey and irma.....this is a sloppy sloppy system...could get to cat 1 but 50/50

[JarrodB]

On track, yes but on intensity that remains to be seen. Models have struggled all year with intensity and this could easily end up far stronger than modeled. It's quite possible this could strengthen all the way up until landfall similar to Harvey, but not as strong.

I was thinking worst case, similar to Charlie wgen he strengthen rapidly and turned easr earlier than expected. (But still a NE gulf landfall)

Historically Nate is in a place where storms rapidly intensify.

Hopefully it won't evolve that way but I have my concerns.

[Bamagirl2408]

Don't blast me. I am just going to throw out there what an average joe (or in my case Jane) thinks. Hurricane watch just extended to Escambia. New Orleans to Pensacola landfall is 200 miles. 4 states. I just want to think in 2017 we are better than that 36 miles out. When you cancel trips, make preps, no one wants damage but you also get aggrevated when you start to think it is for nothing.

[Bamagirl2408]

Don't blast me. I am just going to throw out there what an average joe (or in my case Jane) thinks. Hurricane watch just extended to Escambia. New Orleans to Pensacola landfall is 200 miles. 4 states. I just want to think in 2017 we are better than that 36 hours out. When you cancel trips, make preps, no one wants damage but you also get aggrevated when you start to think it is for nothing.

[gatorcane]

Sloppy to say the least though this image is after landfall:

[Aric Dunn]

Don't blast me. I am just going to throw out there what an average joe (or in my case Jane) thinks. Hurricane watch just extended to Escambia. New Orleans to Pensacola landfall is 200 miles. 4 states. I just want to think in 2017 we are better than that 36 hours out. When you cancel trips, make preps, no one wants damage but you also get aggrevated when you start to think it is for nothing.

The problem is in the math... we understand what the dynamics are for the most part but we do not have the equations refined enough to model on the small scales globally. So we do what we can with truncated solutions that are probabilistic/statistical.

In theory we could take our current models and drastically improve them with the limitng "unsolved" equations for fluids but that would require massive abouts of data that cant be simulated in a reasonable amount of time yet..

[taveanator]

Don't blast me. I am just going to throw out there what an average joe (or in my case Jane) thinks. Hurricane watch just extended to Escambia. New Orleans to Pensacola landfall is 200 miles. 4 states. I just want to think in 2017 we are better than that 36 miles out. When you cancel trips, make preps, no one wants damage but you also get aggrevated when you start to think it is for nothing.

I think you also have to take into account the speed at which the storm is moving, and how far away it is from the Gulf Coast (I'm assuming you meant 36 hours, not miles, out). A slower moving storm would give us a lot more model runs and more time to predict an accurate landfall. Right now I'm on the fence about canceling a trip to Destin with my wife & kids, so I know exactly what you are talking about as far as uncertainty is concerned.

[FLpanhandle91]

Based on recent satellite presentation and current, what I assume is, strengthening, I believe GFS, Euro, CMC, UKMET, and JMA are way off on intensity and NHC's forecast supports that.

[NDG]

12z Euro has landfall near Grand Isle LA, then straight north towards New Orleans, then NNE towards Slidell LA and Pearl River MS.

[stormlover2013]

yeah cat 1 at best.. it looks sloppy on radar/sat right now..

[Aric Dunn]

Sloppy to say the least though this image is after landfall:

the thing is.. shear is not the big factor in the "sloppiness". shear really only increases just prior to landfall ( per latest models).. it is mostly the interaction with the other system that causes the pressure field to be stretched and "energy" to be lost.

[hurricaneCW]

I've seen way worse systems than this, my opinion only but feel probable LF intensity will be 90-95 mph (Cat 2 possible) and strengthening up till LF

[HenkL]

URNT12 KNHC 061723 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL162017
A. 06/16:56:20Z
B. 19 deg 05 min N
085 deg 10 min W
C. 850 mb 1401 m
D. 39 kt
E. 228 deg 11 nm
F. 294 deg 32 kt
G. 228 deg 19 nm
H. 996 mb
I. 17 C / 1524 m
J. 19 C / 1519 m
K. 9 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 08
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF308 0516A NATE OB 25 CCA
MAX FL WIND 49 KT 112 / 68 NM 12:47:00Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 47 KT 359

[taveanator]

I usually hate these questions, but now find myself in a position of understanding why people ask them:

--I'm supposed to travel to Holiday Isle in Destin, Fl in about 5 hours to stay through Monday and I can't decide if I should cancel the trip or not. I've rode out plenty of storms here in NOLA, but never in a beachfront location before. Part of me thinks we could go there, ride out the worst part on Saturday afternoon through Sunday, and then just try and salvage what's left. The other part of me thinks that, especially being on the east side of the storm we could really get walloped even if it's a low CAT 1. They already canceled the seafood festival, and I'd have to imagine a fair amount of other places might close up, to say nothing of not being able swim in the gulf.

If anyone else on here is from the Destin area and could give me some guidance on what it'll be like should we decide to stay in Destin I'd be very appreciative. Just PM me if you don't want to clog up this thread.

[stormlover2013]

I don't think cat 2 is even in possible with this, the no name system is making this sloppy sloppy

[emeraldislenc]

Looks like it is getting more organized

[BYG Jacob]

I don't think cat 2 is even in possible with this, the no name system is making this sloppy sloppy

Stop it

[FLpanhandle91]

I don't think cat 2 is even in possible with this, the no name system is making this sloppy sloppy

You're just bouncing around the model and discussion threads talking about a "sloppy sloppy" system and and making sweeping assumptions about how this won't intensify. Meanwhile satellite presentation improves my the hour.

[stormlover2013]

no I am looking at everything as possible, floaters, radars, and etc....the system doesn't look good, max winds at 50 mph right now, I am going to say cat 1 , max winds 80-85 mph its a sloppy system so many people won't see winds that high...