ATL: GERT - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

Love is in the air!

[GCANE]

Long-duration tower firing off 23.0N 68.5W

[OuterBanker]

To me it looks as if it is wrapping up nicely. Actually surprised it would look this good. Only around 10 hrs ago it was still a ragged mess. Looks like it's attempting to align and form some symmetry. Looks like they are gonna fly on Sunday and expect it to be around 73.5 w 29 n. That would be around 310 to 320 from it's present position, so the north turn is built into it. Only fly in the ointment is if any more west component works in which I really can't see happening. But, as we all know never say never.

[cycloneye]

First mission on Monday afternoon

NOUS42 KNHC 121447
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT SAT 12 AUGUST 2017
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 13/1100Z TO 14/1100Z AUGUST 2017
TCPOD NUMBER.....17-073

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 31.5N 72.0W AT 14/1900Z.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml

[NDG]

This is where I see the LLC, near 23N & 69W, just west of convection to SW of the MLC.
Maybe a little closer to the convection near 68.9W instead.

[NDG]

The steering currents appear to be from the east and northeast in that GFS run?
The GFS closely matches the current water vapor loop.
Where is the digging front that is going to pull 99L north?
Typically tropical systems pump an anticyclone up over them and start gaining latitude as they reach the western periphery of that high pressure dome.
Makes sense that there will be a trough between that high and the high centered over Texas unless it bridges.

The mid level energy that will keep a general troughiness across the NE US is near Montana right now, there this a weakness between the strong Bermuda ridge and the ridge of TX, the storm will start feeling it soon and will start moving poleward over the ne xt few days around the Bermuda ridge.

[AutoPenalti]

Looks like as soon as this stacks up, we'll see the poleward movement.

[Alyono]

tomorrow's recon cancelled

[weathaguyry]

If this moves more west than forecasted, would the track move west, or stay the same?

[Hurricaneman]

What I see is multiple vortices and the main one is sheared with it being well sw of the MLC

[OuterBanker]

tomorrow's recon cancelled

I think it was scheduled for Sunday at the 8 am pod. Still listed as an invest possible at 19z. on Sunday.

But it also lists the invest at 31.5 72w earlier it was 73.5 29. Further north and east than at 8 am.

Not really sure if it is a time thing or faster and more east scenario.

[Alyono]

tomorrow's recon cancelled

I think it was scheduled for Sunday at the 8 am pod. Still listed as an invest possible at 19z. on Sunday.

But it also lists the invest at 31.5 72w earlier it was 73.5 29. Further north and east than at 8 am.

Not really sure if it is a time thing or faster and more east scenario.

maybe a Monday mission

I do not see them flying this storm at all given there is no USA threat

[Sanibel]

Maybe a climatology boost...

[Emmett_Brown]

If this moves more west than forecasted, would the track move west, or stay the same?

Well, probably not, since the steering currents will be out of the S/SE starting tomorrow, so it will track N/NW soon. I guess if it really went far W today, it might take a closer swipe, but the trough in the NE will be shallow, the flow is zonal, so a tight recurve moving from NW quickly turning to NE looks pretty reasonable.

The only fly in the ointment in these situations, is if the steering currents slacken dramatically, and it stalls until the pattern changes or something like that. But that isn't shown by any models.

[GCANE]

In feed from the south seems to be ramping up with an associated increase in convection.

[GCANE]

700mb vort improving

200mb vort clearing out as well.

Overall vorts looking better.

Stronger convection could start to push out shear.

[GCANE]

That big tower this morning seems to have helped get this spinning.

[cycloneye]

2 PM EDT TWO: 60%-70%

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The area of disturbed weather associated with a low pressure
system located a couple of hundred miles northeast of the Turks and
Caicos Islands continues to show some signs of organization, but
there is no evidence of a closed surface circulation. Conditions
remain conducive for development, and a tropical depression could
form during the next day or two. The low is forecast to move
northwestward and northward through the weekend, and then turn
to the northeast away from the United States early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila

[Hammy]

I wonder if the shear is higher than analyzed because this still looks quite tilted, with any axis well to the west of the convection.

[NDG]

Too bad ASCAT missed most of 99L this morning.