ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

Just saw this: "NHC will be re-initiating advisories at 10 AM CDT on Tropical Depression Harvey, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico."

Yeah I saw this too the cone and discussion will be interesting for sure !

[Steve]

Yeah I am a bit surprised at how well this looks and seems to be organizing this morning. Hopefully it doesn't go too crazy. I'm still concerned about it moving more slowly westward into texas, which would give the high more time to build in for the block and in turn send it back ese into the gulf. Of course that would mean more time over water before it comes our way.

Agreed. Last night it looked like (and we called) there would be a temporary interruption on the west side with the dry air coming off Mexico and the Bay of Campeche around the flow of the Upper Low which appeared to be sort of stuck in place. The weight of the next air mass moving south still is holding that in place. But I think in the long run, this makes the circulation a little more vigorous after the pattern flips. I still don't know what's going to happen with the Upper Low though. It can't really go much farther north or west. I guess it could fill in, but they usually leave a ghost behind for a few days. I don't know.

[jaguars_22]

Is there still a chance this goes into corpus giving Victoria the worse effects? Or are you guys leaning towards Port O Connor??

[cycloneye]

Aric Dunn,here is what you mentioned about the center being pulled eastward.

[galvbay]

[Tweet]prepping as I type. Generators started, ditches:culverts cleaned, supplies double checked. We are located at Smith Point on the north side of Galveston Bay. Will keep updates. Galvbay[/Tweet]

[psyclone]

I wonder if the NHC will go with hurricane watches as they (ultimately correctly) did with Hermine last year when it was a sickly looking depression. Regardless, this looks to be a big freshwater flood threat for many.

[TheStormExpert]

You can clearly see the anti-cyclone that has built itself over now reborn TD Harvey. Once that ULL leaves the picture it will be go time for Harvey! Hopefully folks in Texas are taking this SERIOUSLY and preparing now.

[wicked_wx_watcher]

It's times like this I'm glad my house sits 6-7 feet above street level, may need every inch for this one if some of the rainfall forecasts materialize. Everyone on TX coast should get supplies together quickly, media will go nuts shortly if this continues to get its act together and strengthen.

I'm in south Harris County (Clear Lake/Webster) Got up bright and early to get supplies. Local stores are well stocked right now, however this afternoon might be a different story. Go early!

We went through Rita and Ike in Jefferson County and this potential storm has us more worried because there's so much unknown. Models are everywhere and keep changing along with strength predictions.

We're on the border of the new evacuation zone. Harris County Judge has said no more mass evacs unless you're in the zone. No more sitting in cars 18+ hours trying to go 200 miles or less. With Rita, it took us 7 1/2 hours to drive 70 miles from home.

[GCANE]

Wow, don't see this often.
Towers firing off with cirrus building on top of towers that fired off just a few minutes earlier.
Developing really fast.

[wicked_wx_watcher]

For those in Harris County, TX, there's a new free app called "Ready Harris". It has a lot of good information. It's tied to local emergency management offices. You get alerts, evacuation maps, emergency plan management, etc.

[galaxy401]

Hurricane watches issued for Texas...

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Harvey Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

...HARVEY REGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
TEXAS COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 92.5W
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM SE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the coast of Texas from
Port Mansfield to High Island.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the coast of Texas from north
of Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the coast of Texas from
the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield and from north of
San Luis Pass to High Island.

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
coast of Mexico from Boca De Catan to the Mouth of the Rio Grande.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to High Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Boca De Catan Mexico to Port Mansfield Texas
* North of San Luis Pass to High Island

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Harvey Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data indicate that Harvey has
regenerated in the Bay of Campeche, with a closed circulation
noted and a central pressure of about 1006 mb. The initial wind
speed is 30 kt based on SFMR data from the aircraft.

Harvey is not well organized at the moment, with an asymmetric cloud
pattern and a large radius of maximum wind. The environment,
however, is conducive for intensification while Harvey moves over
the very warm Gulf of Mexico waters in light-to-moderate shear. The
biggest hindrance to intensification in the short term is the poor
structure. Thus the NHC forecast will only show a gradual increase
in wind speed during the first day, with a more significant
intensification after that time. Although not explicitly forecast
below, we are anticipating Harvey being a hurricane at landfall
after the 48 hour forecast point. This forecast agrees well with
the guidance, almost all of which shows a quickly intensifying
cyclone approaching the Texas coast.

Since the center has just recently formed, the initial motion is
difficult to estimate, but the long-term motion is 310/8. Harvey is
expected to move more slowly toward the northwest or north-
northwest as it enters a weakness in the Atlantic subtropical ridge
during the next day or so. The ridge slightly strengthens by late
Thursday, which should cause a faster northwestward motion by then.
Around the time of landfall, however, Harvey should enter an area of
weaker steering currents near the upper Texas coast as high pressure
rebuilds over the southwestern United States. The storm should slow
down markedly over southeast Texas, and there is considerable
uncertainty on exactly how fast Harvey moves out of that state ahead
of the next mid-latitude trough. For now the NHC forecast will just
drift Harvey generally toward the east at days 4 and 5, on
the slow side of the model consensus. Hopefully later G-IV flights
and special soundings over the southern United States will help
clarify the long range forecast.

Key Messages:

1. Harvey is likely to bring multiple hazards to portions of the
Texas coast beginning on Friday.

2. Several days of heavy rainfall are likely across portions of
eastern Texas, Louisiana, and the lower Mississippi Valley from
Friday through early next week. This rainfall could cause life-
threatening flooding. Please refer to products from your local
National Weather Service office (www.weather.gov) and the NOAA
Weather Prediction Center (www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov) for more
information on the flooding hazard.

3. The National Weather Service has issued a Storm Surge Watch
from Port Mansfield to High Island, Texas. There is the possibility
of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from
the coastline during the next 48 hours in these areas. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

4. The Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map will also be available on
the NHC website by 1200 PM CDT. Remember that the Potential Storm
Surge Flooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected
inundation, but rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario -
the amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being
exceeded at each individual location. Because the Flooding Map is
based on inputs that extend out only to about 72 hours, it best
represents the flooding potential in those locations within the
watch area.

5. Hurricane conditions are possible along the Texas coast from
Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 21.5N 92.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 22.3N 93.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 23.8N 93.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 25.2N 94.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 26.7N 96.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 29.0N 97.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 27/1200Z 29.8N 96.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 28/1200Z 30.0N 95.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Blake

[GCANE]

Outflow from Harvey looks like its about to take out the ULL

[cycloneye]

[Kazmit]

Decreasing shear in the western and southern GOM.

[SoupBone]

Decreasing shear in the western and southern GOM.

What am I missing here?

[MississippiWx]

Outflow from Harvey looks like its about to take out the ULL

Water vapor really shows the stretched out nature of the system. Will take the rest of the day to shed those negative effects, but it will take off after.

[cycloneye]

This thread is for those Storm2k members who live in the watch and warning areas of Texas and extends to Louisiana when system slows down and moves eastward.Post Web Cams,Observations local NWS statements etc.

[HouTXmetro]

How confident are we that this will only be a strong TS or very weak Hurricane?