ATL: HARVEY - Models

[shah83]

Note the sheer size of the flood zone.

[SoupBone]

Sooo the million dollar question. How well do models forecast weaknesses and troughs? None of these model outcomes are good. Not a single one.

[Kingarabian]

How long it stays over water is so key on whether it will be a destructive hurricane or not. Still, it's such a slow mover that almost all of Texas counties near the shoreline and most of Lousiana will get flooded

[Kingarabian]

Sooo the million dollar question. How well do models forecast weaknesses and troughs? None of these model outcomes are good. Not a single one.

When they're in agreement like this, their depictions are usually solid. As for handling troughs, it's tough. Thankfully we have G-IV planes that do synoptic missions and obtain raw data that is then inputted into these models for the best results.

[hd44]

If we get these rainfall totals over Houston metro , we could be in serious trouble. That's the trend, so the worst case is possible.

[Cpv17]

Well if all that flooding verified this storm would go down in the history books.

[hd44]

Well if all that flooding verified this storm would go down in the history books.

Could go down top 5 for costliest storms because water kills the most and is almost most dangerous storm surge or fresh water.

[Kingarabian]

00z EPS will be interesting. Will be out soon.

[ROCK]

Not liking the EURO run at all...so much water and no where to go.

[ROCK]

Not liking this at all..

https://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/pls/portal/ ... RM_DISPLAY

[South Texas Storms]

Looks like the 0z Euro Ensemble mean is close to the operational run.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Masive area there boarder to boarder with heavy precip.Myself i don't take that much notice
of GFS hpa plots.But i always look at the precip.

[hd44]

Ukmet

[hd44]

Eps favors Texas close to op.

[TheStormExpert]

00z UKMET days 2-4.

[Cpv17]

00z UKMET days 2-4.

Can't quite tell for sure, but that looks like a Freeport landfall.

[ROCK]

Yeah Freeport would put Galveston in the right front quad which would be the most damaging especially for West End and Cities south of Houston. It's the perfect angle and NE trek...pretty much the most frightening thing ever imagaablr...yep

[hd44]

Can't figure out actually pressure... but Ukmet clearly has a hurricane on it. I would lean hurricane as of now probably just west of Galveston.

[ROCK]

06Z NAM is running

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Tend to think the storm will initially move NNE. The weakness appears on the 500mb to be where the dashed ---- lower height is meeting the ridge atm.