ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[slamdaddy]

Hope for New Orleans sake that this does not shift more east, their pumps are not functioning to well at the moment.

[stormreader]

Sometimes like to step back and just look at the big picture. Perspective.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Looks to me that the LLC is starting to win the battle against dry air just to the west of it. That convection burst will help it organize better, also, the ULL near LA seems to be moving away and shrinking.

[tropicwatch]

Since the llc has consolidated in its current position. There has been little to no movement since around 4 this morning. Guessing the timetables will need to be adjusted if it doesn't start moving.

[hd44]

It cannot be said enough. A potentially catastrophic flooding event is setting up for SE TX, mid-TX coast, and SW LA. Prepare now if you live in that area. Rainfall totals could exceed Allison.

Much stronger Allison too. This is late August where you can get rapid intensification in the gulf... I believe Allison was in June.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Harvey Local Statement Advisory Number 12
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX AL092017
1049 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

This product covers SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS

**Harvey to bring Heavy Rainfall and Tropical Storm Force Winds to
South Central Texas**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for De Witt, Fayette,
Gonzales, Karnes, Lavaca, and Wilson

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for De Witt, Fayette,
Gonzales, Karnes, Lavaca, and Wilson

* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 610 miles south-southeast of Hallettsville TX or about
640 miles south-southeast of La Grange TX or about 600 miles
south-southeast of Cuero TX
- 21.5N 92.5W
- Storm Intensity 35 mph
- Movement Northwest or 310 degrees at 9 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Harvey regenerates into a tropical depression across the Gulf of
Mexico waters. Harvey is expected to move to the northwest and approach
the Texas coast Friday. The tropical system will bring tropical storm
winds and heavy rain across South Central Texas beggining Friday and
continuing into the weekend. Flash flooding and river flooding is
possible, mainly across the Tropical Storm Watch area.

Storm Total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches are expected east of
Interstate 35 with isolated 10 inches across counties in the Tropical
Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Monday afternoon. It should
be stressed that there is the potential for much higher amounts across
South Central Texas as they will be highly dependent on the track and
intensity of Harvey.

There is a low risk of brief tornadoes east of Interstate 35 Friday
evening into the weekend associated with tropical rain bands.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible limited
impacts across areas in the Tropical Storm Watch. Potential impacts
include:
- Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
- Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter currents.
Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos, and ditches may become
swollen and overflow in spots.
- Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually
vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water
occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become
near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge
closures.

Elsewhere across South Central Texas, little to no impact is
anticipated.

* WIND:
Prepare for dangerous wind having possible significant impacts across
the Tropical Storm Watch area. Potential impacts in this area include:
- Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
objects become dangerous projectiles.
- Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
fences and roadway signs blown over.
- Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
routes impassable.
- Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
in areas with above ground lines.

* TORNADOES:
There is a low risk for tornadoes late Friday east of Interstate 35.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and take necessary
actions to secure your home or business. Deliberate efforts should be
underway to protect life and property. Ensure that your Emergency
Supplies Kit is stocked and ready.

If you live in a place that is particularly vulnerable to high wind,
such as a mobile home, an upper floor of a high rise building, or on
a boat, plan to move to safe shelter. Take enough supplies for you
and your family for several days.

If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
near the ocean or a large inland lake, in a low lying or poor
drainage area, in a valley or canyon, or near an already swollen
river, plan to move to safe shelter on higher ground

Be a Good Samaritan and check on those who may not be fully aware of
the situation or who are unable to make personal preparations.

Closely monitor NOAA Weather Radio or other local news outlets for
official storm information. Listen for possible changes to the
forecast.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Austin/San Antonio TX around 5 PM CDT, or sooner if
conditions warrant.

[MississippiWx]

Hope for New Orleans sake that this does not shift more east, their pumps are not functioning to well at the moment.

Still a possibility but trend seems to be back south and west this afternoon.

[tarheelprogrammer]

I believe this storm could make a run at a category 3 or 4. Just a feeling, and nothing more. So, I would prepare for any possibility. Rain will be biblical. I keep praying that something changes, but the system seems to be getting organized better than models are showing, but again just an opinion.

[Frank P]

Well to me it doesn't look to be in a hurry to go anywhere....

[RL3AO]

It cannot be said enough. A potentially catastrophic flooding event is setting up for SE TX, mid-TX coast, and SW LA. Prepare now if you live in that area. Rainfall totals could exceed Allison.

Much stronger Allison too. This is late August where you can get rapid intensification in the gulf... I believe Allison was in June.

Yes, but the rainfall is still the biggest threat to the largest area.

[stormreader]

Weakening ULL still very apparent. Retrograde motion west has continued. Further west than storm now. Looks like center of ULL about or very close to due south of Lake Charles, La. Exact angle of initial steering NW to be influenced by this feature. Afterward, high pressure to build back in. All west movement forecast to come to a halt at that time. Then more NE or so (easterly component).

[txwatcher91]

Well to me it doesn't look to be in a hurry to go anywhere....

The NAM has forecast the slow movement quite well IMO. Although many are discrediting it since it's not really that great at the tropics, I have found it can do pretty well with track within 48 hours. It takes more of a UKMET track but stalls it so that might lend some credence to the UK having the right idea. It also gives it more time over water which would be bad.

[MississippiWx]

Well to me it doesn't look to be in a hurry to go anywhere....

Center hasn't moved anywhere since the sun came up. Maybe a drift to the south and east underneath the thunderstorms.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/900404577819918336

[txwatcher91]

One other thing to keep in mind, in my experience storms with weak steering currents tend to drift with erratic behavior and wobbles. If near land, the frictional effects will tend to cause the eye to stay just along the coast and crawl up it slowly. Hurricane Ophelia is one I remember quite well, models kept trying to bring it inland but the weak steering currents ended up with a storm that just stayed along the coast and traveled slowly up it. Not saying this will happen here, but it is something to keep an eye on when this nears land and IMO anyone in SE Texas needs to prepare for widespread flooding.

[hd44]

Could landfall in 48 hours.. I worry about the Ukmet verifying with the stronger hurricane idea. I don't know if 48 hours is enough to evacuate if it really starts to intensify. The idea of the storm ramping up within a few hours of landfall is always bad news for coastal residents.

[galvestontx]

People are listening and watching. I was at the grocery store this morning at 830am and it was packed with people buying supplies. I am in Katy 1.5 hours from the coast so I am sure people closer are even more aware. I just pray its not an Allison rain event, we can handle wind and some rain, but 40+ inches is a no go.

[Ken711]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/900393714551541760

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The ULL moving further away causing the storm to stall?

Center is bubbling up to.

[cycloneye]

There is a thread to post local observations,Web Cams,Local NWS Statements that the members in the Texas and Louisiana states can post.Link below.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=119021&p=2606360#p2606360