ATL: IRMA - Models

[Bocadude85]

Well if the GFS ends up being correct and Irma misses the Caribbean to the north then that would be a pretty big bust for the Euro in the midrange.

That would be more than a bust by the Euro. It would be a straight up Coup for the GFS. More often than not the Euro is more correct than the GFS. At this time I think the key threat to the CONUS if there is one is Florida to the Carolinas. I think the Euro was too far South on the 00z and the GFS is too far NE on the 12z. You put it in the middle and you end up with Savannah, Georgia give or take a few miles. Floyd has been my analog all along.

If the Euro is correct with the steering patterns then I think another good analog could be Hurricane Donna.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Donna#/media/File%3ADonna_1960_track.png

[gatorcane]

That is a huge shift west by the CMC. The GFS has been way too inconsistent for me. I would not be surprised in the Euro continues to show a similar solution. You have to admit it has been pretty consistent with the track even though 10 days the past couple of days of runs. The Aussie ACCESS model and NASA models are with the Euro.

[WeatherEmperor]

Euro will probably come around next few runs this hurricane isn't gonna close to the SE with that trof there

The 12z Canadian shifted a good 300+ miles further West. Perhaps this is the first clue that future runs will come closer to the Euro?


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[JPmia]

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/903237626941059072

[Bocadude85]

That is a huge shift west by the CMC. The GFS has been way too inconsistent for me. I would not be surprised in the Euro continues to show a similar solution. You have to admit it has been pretty consistent with the track even though 10 days the past couple of days of runs. The Aussie ACCESS model and NASA models are with the Euro.

That is a huge shift by the 12z Canadian, now brings Irma into the NE Caribbean islands.

[tolakram]

I had to delete a bunch of posts. Please remember this is the models thread and keep discussion to models AND avoid comments that do not add to the discussion. Most questions are OK as long as they are pertinent to a model run.

Thanks for your cooperation. Discussion thread is here: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=119058&p=2618082#p2618082

[sma10]

That is a huge shift west by the CMC. The GFS has been way too inconsistent for me. I would not be surprised in the Euro continues to show a similar solution. You have to admit it has been pretty consistent with the track even though 10 days the past couple of days of runs. The Aussie ACCESS model and NASA models are with the Euro.

And to some extent the UK, which unfortunately only goes out 6 days. Would nice to know what the UK thinks from days 6-10 once it's at 19.5 60.5. Does it continue on a WNW heading or immediately jump out towards Bermuda like GFS?

[chaser1]

I'd almost be curious as to what the "old" GFS model would have come out with (okay, I did say "almost )

[Blown Away]

That is a huge shift west by the CMC. The GFS has been way too inconsistent for me. I would not be surprised in the Euro continues to show a similar solution. You have to admit it has been pretty consistent with the track even though 10 days the past couple of days of runs. The Aussie ACCESS model and NASA models are with the Euro.

Notice the HWRF/HMON models all running about 1 degree S of previous run...

[HurricaneFrances04]

No model is right or wrong 10 days out. Irma is still 5 days a way before it begins to even start impacting any land. There is going to be a week of major model swings, and even within 48 hours they can be off by a hundred miles.

[Bocadude85]

Does anyone have the text output from the 12z UKMET?

[RL3AO]

Still a long ways out, but the GFS might have the right idea. Troughs have saved the US East Coast a lot recently. ECMWF should come around to this solution eventually in my opinion.

I'd like to see the GFS get the motion of Irma right in 12 hours before I start buying into it getting day 10 right.

[Frank2]

Current spaghetti models still showing a recurve - right now Irma is at 17N, far too north for anything but an eventual recurve. My guess the NHC will soon back away from forecasting a southerly motion.

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hur ... odel-plots

P.S. This far out the models will diverge, but the opinion has always been the farther north the cyclone is at the point of initial formation the more prone it is to the coriolis effect, especially if it intensifies rapidly.

Frank

[RL3AO]

Current spaghetti models still showing a recurve - right now Irma is at 17N, far too north for anything but an eventual recurve. My guess the NHC will soon back away from forecasting a southerly motion.

Frank, except the only things on that spaghetti plot that matters, is the UKMET, TVCN, TVCX, NHC, HWRF, and GFS. The first of five of those six show a major threat.

[txwatcher91]

Current spaghetti models still showing a recurve - right now Irma is at 17N, far too north for anything but an eventual recurve. My guess the NHC will soon back away from forecasting a southerly motion.

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hur ... odel-plots

P.S. This far out the models will diverge, but the opinion has always been the farther north the cyclone is at the point of initial formation the more prone it is to the coriolis effect, especially if it intensifies rapidly.

Frank

I'd have to respectfully disagree. Those plots don't show the Euro and it's ensembles, the two most important and best performing ones IMO. The strong ridge may very well push this through the Herbert Box and if that occurs the chance for a FL to NC impact go way up.

[WeatherEmperor]

Current spaghetti models still showing a recurve - right now Irma is at 17N, far too north for anything but an eventual recurve. My guess the NHC will soon back away from forecasting a southerly motion.

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hur ... odel-plots

P.S. This far out the models will diverge, but the opinion has always been the farther north the cyclone is at the point of initial formation the more prone it is to the coriolis effect, especially if it intensifies rapidly.

Frank

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/903278178768183296





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[tolakram]

Current spaghetti models still showing a recurve - right now Irma is at 17N, far too north for anything but an eventual recurve. My guess the NHC will soon back away from forecasting a southerly motion.

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hur ... odel-plots

P.S. This far out the models will diverge, but the opinion has always been the farther north the cyclone is at the point of initial formation the more prone it is to the coriolis effect, especially if it intensifies rapidly.

Frank

Frank, I know you and I both don't want a US hit but right now all reliable models are showing the southerly dip. The problem with just looking at the spaghetti plots is they give equal weight to the good and bad models. Just promise us you are prepared for the worst and keep your eye on this thing. Ike was suppose to recurve as well and missed Florida to the south ... still too early.

[Blown Away]

The 11am NHC has Irma at 16N/55.5 west in 120 hours... The 12z GFS has Irma at 17N/52.5W in 120 hours... That means the 12z GFS is @180 miles ENE/slower than the NHC 120 hour position...

[jlauderdal]

Current spaghetti models still showing a recurve - right now Irma is at 17N, far too north for anything but an eventual recurve. My guess the NHC will soon back away from forecasting a southerly motion.

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hur ... odel-plots

P.S. This far out the models will diverge, but the opinion has always been the farther north the cyclone is at the point of initial formation the more prone it is to the coriolis effect, especially if it intensifies rapidly.

Frank

frank, nhc is forecasting a sw dip to a full degree south to 16 and 22 degrees west of its current location..would you say recurve if we were at 16n 55 w today heading 280

[tolakram]

I think we've bugged Frank enough for now.