ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ColdFusion]

Hope for New Orleans sake that this does not shift more east, their pumps are not functioning to well at the moment.

Still a possibility but trend seems to be back south and west this afternoon.

Oh? I had not heard that, guess I need to go back and read some earlier pages.

[xironman]

Nice towers for dmin

[cycloneye]

@NASA_SPoRT
#Lightning starting to increase in last 20 mins to the east of TD #Harvey's center. Image at 1158 am from #GOES16/#GLM

 https://twitter.com/NASA_SPoRT/status/900403741286961152

[stormreader]

Well to me it doesn't look to be in a hurry to go anywhere....

The NAM has forecast the slow movement quite well IMO. Although many are discrediting it since it's not really that great at the tropics, I have found it can do pretty well with track within 48 hours. It takes more of a UKMET track but stalls it so that might lend some credence to the UK having the right idea. It also gives it more time over water which would be bad.

Been doing well now for last few days. Staying with it and UK until further notice.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Harvey Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
100 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

...HARVEY MOVING LITTLE BUT EXPECTED TO RESUME A NORTHWESTWARD
COURSE SOON...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 92.5W
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM SE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

[stormreader]

One other thing to keep in mind, in my experience storms with weak steering currents tend to drift with erratic behavior and wobbles. If near land, the frictional effects will tend to cause the eye to stay just along the coast and crawl up it slowly. Hurricane Ophelia is one I remember quite well, models kept trying to bring it inland but the weak steering currents ended up with a storm that just stayed along the coast and traveled slowly up it. Not saying this will happen here, but it is something to keep an eye on when this nears land and IMO anyone in SE Texas needs to prepare for widespread flooding.

Yes. So that the motion you are talking about becomes more likely---wobbling along the coast.

[Steve]

People are listening and watching. I was at the grocery store this morning at 830am and it was packed with people buying supplies. I am in Katy 1.5 hours from the coast so I am sure people closer are even more aware. I just pray its not an Allison rain event, we can handle wind and some rain, but 40+ inches is a no go.

For sure. As someone who lost it all once in a flood, let me remind everyone that the one thing you absolutely cannot replace (besides your life) are your photographs, negatives and videos. My dad lost them all when he forgot to pack his photo box when he booked it out of town for Katrina. That was about 5 generations worth of photos , negatives, VHS, 8mm and 16mm film destroyed. Please trust me on this unless you have all your old stuff digitally scanned. We maybe salvaged about 15 smeared pictures out of thousands. You have options:

1) Buy a plastic bin that seals tightly and that will float.
2) Put them in a plastic bin in your attic
3) Take them with you

For other belongings, put your valuable stuff up as high as you can. For instance if you have antiques, get them up off the ground, in the attic or the second floor. Same for other furniture you don't want to lose!

[ScottNAtlanta]

This still has an elongated look to it. Until it sheds some of the northern convection that is competing with the center, this wont be in a hurry to get stronger

[otowntiger]

@NASA_SPoRT
#Lightning starting to increase in last 20 mins to the east of TD #Harvey's center. Image at 1158 am from #GOES16/#GLM

 https://twitter.com/NASA_SPoRT/status/900403741286961152

Is lightning a sign of strengthening, or weakening or RI? I forget.

[cycloneye]

TXZ229>234-239>247-240145-

Tropical Depression Harvey Local Statement
Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX AL092017
1237 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

This product covers SOUTH TEXAS

**TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY CONTINUES TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST**


NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Bee, Goliad, Jim Wells, Live
Oak, and Victoria
- A Storm Surge Watch and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
Aransas, Calhoun, Kleberg, Nueces, Refugio, and San Patricio

* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 520 miles southeast of Port Aransas TX or about 540 miles
south-southeast of Port Oconnor TX
- 21.5N 92.5W
- Storm Intensity 35 mph
- Movement Stationary

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Hurricane hunter aircraft have found a closed circulation in what
was the remnants of Harvey, and have found strong enough winds to
categorize Harvey as a tropical depression. Harvey is expected to
continue to strengthen as it approaches the Texas coast Thursday into
Friday. Tropical storm force winds could approach coastal areas in the
Coastal Bend as early as Thursday night or Friday morning.

Heavy rainfall is expected through much of the area with rainfall
totals of 6 to 12 inches possible along the middle Texas coast and
Victoria Crossroads. Lesser amounts are expected further west. These
numbers and locations are subject to change depending on the exact
point of landfall along the Texas coast. Flash flooding is possible
with these high rainfall totals. The heaviest rains will occur
Thursday night through Saturday.

Storm surge inundation is generally expected to be 4 to 6 feet along
the islands and into the bays. Isolated locations could see slightly
higher inundation.

Tornadoes are possible as rainbands move onshore Thursday night
through Saturday.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Prepare for dangerous wind having possible significant impacts across
the Coastal Bend. Potential impacts in this area include:
- Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
objects become dangerous projectiles.
- Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
fences and roadway signs blown over.
- Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
routes impassable.
- Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
in areas with above ground lines.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts across SOUTH TEXAS. Potential impacts include:
- Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
- Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter currents.
Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may become swollen
and overflow in spots.
- Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually
vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water
occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become
near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge
closures.

* SURGE:
Prepare for life-threatening surge having possible significant
impacts across the middle Texas coast and the barrier islands.
Potential impacts in this area include:
- Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
- Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
spots.
- Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
numerous rip currents.
- Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
unprotected anchorages.

* TORNADOES:
Little to no impacts are anticipated at this time across SOUTH TEXAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:

WATCH/WARNING PHASE - If you are exceptionally vulnerable to wind or
water hazards from tropical systems, consider voluntary evacuation.
Relocate to a predetermined shelter or safe destination.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and take necessary
actions to secure your home or business. Deliberate efforts should be
underway to protect life and property. Ensure that your Emergency
Supplies Kit is stocked and ready.

If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
near the ocean or a large inland lake, in a low lying or poor
drainage area, in a valley or canyon, or near an already swollen
river, plan to move to safe shelter on higher ground

Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with any orders
that are issued. Do not needlessly jeopardize your life or the lives
of others.

Closely monitor NOAA Weather Radio or other local news outlets for
official storm information. Listen for possible changes to the
forecast.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Corpus Christi TX around 4 PM CDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

[Steve]

LOCATION...21.5N 92.5W

https://www.bing.com/maps?q=21.5N+92.5W ... ORM=HDRSC4

That's farther south than I thought it was and more in line with the NAM showing a stall down there for a day or so. It's also where the strongest convection is firing at the moment.

https://www.bing.com/maps?q=21.5N+92.5W ... ORM=HDRSC4

[hd44]

@NASA_SPoRT
#Lightning starting to increase in last 20 mins to the east of TD #Harvey's center. Image at 1158 am from #GOES16/#GLM

 https://twitter.com/NASA_SPoRT/status/900403741286961152

Is lightning a sign of strengthening, or weakening or RI? I forget.

When lightning is firing over the core... it can indicate strengthening and sometimes rapid intensification. If it is not over the center I wouldn't say for sure. Btw this is not YET rapidly intensifying as it remains broad and elongated as Levi at Tropical Tidbits agrees right now.

[hohnywx]

@NASA_SPoRT
#Lightning starting to increase in last 20 mins to the east of TD #Harvey's center. Image at 1158 am from #GOES16/#GLM

 https://twitter.com/NASA_SPoRT/status/900403741286961152

Is lightning a sign of strengthening, or weakening or RI? I forget.

Lightning is definitely a sign of a storm strengthening.

[txwatcher91]

Lightning in a TC can indicate either dry air in the core or that it is organizing and producing some deep convection. I would say it is probably due to a little dry air being mixed out and the recent explosion of deep convection.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Its also still just barely sitting on top of the cooler shelf water. It hasnt tapped the higher heat content of the waters just to its north and west.

[tarheelprogrammer]

This slower movement is helping it organize a little better as it is distancing itself from the ULL to its NW. It needs to get moving soon, or this could get bad quickly.

[MaineWeatherNut]

This slower movement is helping it organize a little better as it is distancing itself from the ULL to its NW. It needs to get moving soon, or this could get bad quickly.

If it stalls and sits there for too long though upwelling could become an issue...

[txwatcher91]

This slower movement is helping it organize a little better as it is distancing itself from the ULL to its NW. It needs to get moving soon, or this could get bad quickly.

If it stalls and sits there for too long though upwelling could become an issue...

With winds of 35mph there won't be too much of an upwelling issue, especially since recon found winds near the center fairly light at 15-25mph max.

[tarheelprogrammer]

This slower movement is helping it organize a little better as it is distancing itself from the ULL to its NW. It needs to get moving soon, or this could get bad quickly.

If it stalls and sits there for too long though upwelling could become an issue...

True, but it will eventually start moving. If it is better organized it will take better advantage of the warm SSTs in the NW GOM. Just an opinion though, for now.

[RL3AO]

This slower movement is helping it organize a little better as it is distancing itself from the ULL to its NW. It needs to get moving soon, or this could get bad quickly.

If it stalls and sits there for too long though upwelling could become an issue...

It's too weak for that to be an issue. The warm water is quite deep there. A weak TD/TS isn't going to be efficiently mixing 100 meters of ocean.