ATL: HARVEY - Models

[Dean4Storms]

Noticed a good bit of ECM EPS members with a stall right at the TX Coast then a movement generally NE toward LA Coast. Talk about a bad scenario, heavy rains from central TX Coast to Mobile, AL if that comes to fruition. Not to mention if Harvey was to get back over water long enough what could transpire and what if the track moved even more ENE raking the whole upper Gulf Coast?

[BigB0882]

I will be keeping a close eye. My worry is this hooks NE at the end and gives Louisiana more rain than currently forecast. I don't expect this to come close to a SELA hit but the rain could still be bad if it gets close enough to the upper TX coast.

[cajungal]

I live 60 miles southwest of New Orleans. Lots of flooding when Rita hit.

[ROCK]

all I can say is unbelievable...strengthening TC up into landfall..horrible scenario and not one local TV MET has said anything this am.

[ROCK]

06z 84hrs

Over the course of the last couple of days models have shifted north and east. Is that model trend completed? Maybe. 84 hours model reliability much stronger. But still a very delicate situation with the ULL shift and the strength of the ULL. My gut tells me we might see another shift north and east. Not radical, but we are getting close to landfall. Somewhere around the Galveston to Port Arthur area for actual landfall of a slow moving system with the attended move more NE over the next couple of days. I think would put the system very near that original Euro wake up call from about 4 days ago when it had a substantial hurricane off the upper Texas coast with not a lot of movement at that time. So that would be my best call. Galveston to Golden Triangle. Flooding rains depending on that landfall.

The Euro threw up that anamouls run a few days ago and flipped back. Now flipped again. It's that one run that caught my eye as well. Euro did the same with IKE.

[stormreader]

Noticed a good bit of ECM EPS members with a stall right at the TX Coast then a movement generally NE toward LA Coast. Talk about a bad scenario, heavy rains from central TX Coast to Mobile, AL if that comes to fruition. Not to mention if Harvey was to get back over water long enough what could transpire and what if the track moved even more ENE raking the whole upper Gulf Coast?

This is pretty much my thinking right now. Mentioned earlier that I think a landfall most likely between Galveston and Port Arthur (even Sabine Pass). The storm would approach the coast as expected, but slow moving and begin to "wobble" north and NNE right about the landfall. Continued NE inland along Tex-La border. Would be my best call right now.

[SouthDadeFish]

00Z Euro ensembles, from Dr. Brian Tang's page:



Quite a range of possible solutions.

[Pearl River]

The Euro, even though it has Harvey inland, kind of reminds me a little of Hurricane Edith back in '71, although it was the Mexican coast she stalled on, she then took off to the NE into SWLa.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Euro has me the most concerned, although both models have been pretty bad to downright horrible this year. That stall then pushed back east to reintensify in the gulf for two runs now should wake a lot more people up. The GFS is starting to lean with the same idea just moved it inland too far north when it stalls, then gets kicked ene into LA, still potentially a lot of flooding for both states regardless which is correct. IMO if there any big shifts left in them it would be with the 12z models today. If they are still showing the same scenario it will be time to for y'all in tx to get after it with a quickness.

[ATCcane]

all I can say is unbelievable...strengthening TC up into landfall..horrible scenario and not one local TV MET has said anything this am.

True...you'd think the NHC would start PTC advisories later today. That should get some attention.

[Blown Away]

06z 84hrs

Over the course of the last couple of days models have shifted north and east. Is that model trend completed? Maybe. 84 hours model reliability much stronger. But still a very delicate situation with the ULL shift and the strength of the ULL. My gut tells me we might see another shift north and east. Not radical, but we are getting close to landfall. Somewhere around the Galveston to Port Arthur area for actual landfall of a slow moving system with the attended move more NE over the next couple of days. I think would put the system very near that original Euro wake up call from about 4 days ago when it had a substantial hurricane off the upper Texas coast with not a lot of movement at that time. So that would be my best call. Galveston to Golden Triangle. Flooding rains depending on that landfall.

The Euro threw up that anamouls run a few days ago and flipped back. Now flipped again. It's that one run that caught my eye as well. Euro did the same with IKE.

Ex Harvey likely a high end TS or Cat 1 at Tx landfall, but intensifies over land which is interesting.

[TheStormExpert]

This is possibly a worst nightmare seeing that just two days ago probably not a single model showed little of anything heading for Texas or the continental U.S., now you have all the global models and hurricane models showing at least a strengthening strong TS/minimal hurricane making landfall by late Friday/early Saturday along the central Texas coastline then potentially reemerging into the extreme NW Gulf of Mexico and making a second landfall possibly in SW Louisiana. Just think how much rainfall would occur and then there is the potential of wind as well depending which model comes close to being right. What has me more concerned is the NHC hasn't even started initiating Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories on Harvey and hopefully once they do they go ahead and put up watches and warnings.

[ronjon]

all I can say is unbelievable...strengthening TC up into landfall..horrible scenario and not one local TV MET has said anything this am.

True...you'd think the NHC would start PTC advisories later today. That should get some attention.

i think in this case they don't even have an established COC so I doubt they'll pull the trigger on that until that happens.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

People living anywhere from South Padre ISLAND to Galveston island need to watch this closely !!!!

[cycloneye]

Latest Guidance.

[jaguars_22]

IMO I firmly believe this is going to continue trending east and hit louisiana!! Im in Victoria- MID Texas Coast and it feels like it will move slower and feel the effects of the front and pull north east earlier than models are forecasting.

This is just a guess but im feeling a little better here... All we need is the Euro to jump north and i believe the trend will continue

I could be totally wrong

[CYCLONE MIKE]

While we're in a lull waiting on more model runs want to ask about the chances of this getting back out into the gulf and making a second landfall somewhere in LA. I know it will come down to the speed of the shortwave dropping south into the trough and high building out over the SW US. But what are the chances this does what the euro shows or even worse, stalls closer to the coast and spends more time out over the gulf? The GFS is showing the same idea but it's much further north and inland with the system before it turns it east into central/northern LA. Will it start leaning to euros solution or vice versa?

[gatorcane]

Another view of the 06Z HWRF.

[Tireman4]

all I can say is unbelievable...strengthening TC up into landfall..horrible scenario and not one local TV MET has said anything this am.

True...you'd think the NHC would start PTC advisories later today. That should get some attention.

Brooks Garner, pro met at KHOU, has. It is on his Facebook page and at the KHOU Weatherboards.

[JtSmarts]

all I can say is unbelievable...strengthening TC up into landfall..horrible scenario and not one local TV MET has said anything this am.

True...you'd think the NHC would start PTC advisories later today. That should get some attention.

Brooks Garner, pro met at KHOU, has. It is on his Facebook page and at the KHOU Weatherboards.

He's great, he was one of my favorites when he was here in Columbia back in the late 2000s.