ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[otowntiger]

NHC discussion mentioned the northward motion mentioned earlier tonight, and they noted the GFS northward turn. Don`t be surprised if this continues. It is similar to Frances many years ago - everyone was flipping over a major hurricane so far east but it never made landfall. Interesting to note it was a 968 in the same place as Irma tonight and recurved soon after.

I agree. I believe continued north shifts will eventually lead to an out to sea track.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Some confident people in here for a storm 8 days out

[SapphireSea]

NHC discussion mentioned the northward motion mentioned earlier tonight, and they noted the GFS northward turn. Don`t be surprised if this continues. It is similar to Frances many years ago - everyone was flipping over a major hurricane so far east but it never made landfall. Interesting to note it was a 968 in the same place as Irma tonight and recurved soon after.

I agree. I believe continued north shifts will eventually lead to an out to sea track.

I spoke on this on the models discussion, and I don't really buy the WSW shift. Generally these materialize ahead of time and notable flow somewhere indicating the path. I believe this will continue Wward / WNW and end up further north than expected. Climo and odds back this pretty heavily. This should recurve.

[RL3AO]

and I don't really buy the WSW shift.

You'll be proven very wrong on that within 48 hours.

[eastcoastFL]

NHC discussion mentioned the northward motion mentioned earlier tonight, and they noted the GFS northward turn. Don`t be surprised if this continues. It is similar to Frances many years ago - everyone was flipping over a major hurricane so far east but it never made landfall. Interesting to note it was a 968 in the same place as Irma tonight and recurved soon after.

Are you talking about a different Frances than the one that hit Florida about 14 years ago?

[Aric Dunn]

I sure hope no one is actually relying on the models at this point. They do not know whats happening down stream at the moment. .. let alone the next 3 days.. lets just focus on some short term trends please.

[eastcoastFL]

NHC discussion mentioned the northward motion mentioned earlier tonight, and they noted the GFS northward turn. Don`t be surprised if this continues. It is similar to Frances many years ago - everyone was flipping over a major hurricane so far east but it never made landfall. Interesting to note it was a 968 in the same place as Irma tonight and recurved soon after.

I agree. I believe continued north shifts will eventually lead to an out to sea track.

I spoke on this on the models discussion, and I don't really buy the WSW shift. Generally these materialize ahead of time and notable flow somewhere indicating the path. I believe this will continue Wward / WNW and end up further north than expected. Climo and odds back this pretty heavily. This should recurve.

I hope that happens but I don't see any reason to not believe the wsw bend. Are you saying you don't believe the ridge will build in that far south?

[NDG]

NHC discussion mentioned the northward motion mentioned earlier tonight, and they noted the GFS northward turn. Don`t be surprised if this continues. It is similar to Frances many years ago - everyone was flipping over a major hurricane so far east but it never made landfall. Interesting to note it was a 968 in the same place as Irma tonight and recurved soon after.

I agree. I believe continued north shifts will eventually lead to an out to sea track.

I spoke on this on the models discussion, and I don't really buy the WSW shift. Generally these materialize ahead of time and notable flow somewhere indicating the path. I believe this will continue Wward / WNW and end up further north than expected. Climo and odds back this pretty heavily. This should recurve.

Climatology is not always the answer, otherwise we would had not needed computer models.
The WSW heading is not supposed to start happening until tomorrow.

[eastcoastFL]

I sure hope no one is actually relying on the models at this point. They do not know whats happening down stream at the moment. .. let alone the next 3 days.. lets just focus on some short term trends please.

I totally agree. Models are all over the place and continue to change each run. We need to deal with the current situations in place right now and how they are affecting the storm and it's path.

[Blown Away]

NHC discussion mentioned the northward motion mentioned earlier tonight, and they noted the GFS northward turn. Don`t be surprised if this continues. It is similar to Frances many years ago - everyone was flipping over a major hurricane so far east but it never made landfall. Interesting to note it was a 968 in the same place as Irma tonight and recurved soon after.

Keep in mind the 18z GFS showed this early N jog and actually dipped to @16.1N which is lower than NHC track. There is just so much climatology history going against a CONUS strike from Irma's spot, it's hard for me to grasp the idea. I can remember being on this board w/ Ike totally not buying what models showed and the lesson I learned is each system is unique...

[AxaltaRacing24]

NHC discussion mentioned the northward motion mentioned earlier tonight, and they noted the GFS northward turn. Don`t be surprised if this continues. It is similar to Frances many years ago - everyone was flipping over a major hurricane so far east but it never made landfall. Interesting to note it was a 968 in the same place as Irma tonight and recurved soon after.

Keep in mind the 18z GFS showed this early N jog and actually dipped to @16.1N which is lower than NHC track. There is just so much climatology history going against a CONUS strike from Irma's spot, it's hard for me to grasp the idea. I can remember being on this board w/ Ike totally not buying what models showed and the lesson I learned is each system is unique...

The truth is that Irma can care less about climo. She cares about the environment around her and that is superior to climo.

[Brent]

NHC discussion mentioned the northward motion mentioned earlier tonight, and they noted the GFS northward turn. Don`t be surprised if this continues. It is similar to Frances many years ago - everyone was flipping over a major hurricane so far east but it never made landfall. Interesting to note it was a 968 in the same place as Irma tonight and recurved soon after.

didn't Frances make landfall in Florida??

[floridasun78]

this hurr could beat Harvey lowest pressure

[NDG]

I wonder what the GFS huggers think about the NHC forecaster Zelibsky tonight for mentioning this at the 11 PM advisory forecast discussion.

The ECMWF has performed better for
Irma thus far, so my forecast continues to favor that solution.

[RL3AO]

I totally agree. Models are all over the place and continue to change each run. We need to deal with the current situations in place right now and how they are affecting the storm and it's path.

I'm calling BS on this. Here's the last four Euro runs verifying 7 days from now.


Here are the last ELEVEN runs of the GFS verifying 7 days from now.



That's remarkable consistency from the models for a 7 to 11 day forecast.

If you're mad because the GFS shifts it's 12 to 16 day forecast, then you should stop looking at models for about 30 more years.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Some confident people in here for a storm 8 days out

Yeah. Not sure why everyone gets worked up about things so far away and uncertain.
I'd much rather just make bad jokes/roleplay as a tiny hurricane.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

I totally agree. Models are all over the place and continue to change each run. We need to deal with the current situations in place right now and how they are affecting the storm and it's path.

I'm calling BS on this. Here's the last four Euro runs verifying 7 days from now.

Here are the last ELEVEN runs of the GFS verifying 7 days from now.

That's remarkable consistency from the models for a 7 to 11 day forecast.

If you're mad because the GFS shifts it's 12 to 16 day forecast, then you should stop looking at models for about 30 more years.

Is this "30 more years" in the same way fusion power is always "30 more years"?

[Blown Away]

Let's hope the 00z GFS/Euro kick Irma OTS before 70W so I can enjoy the weekend and not be a prisoner to these model runs...

[AxaltaRacing24]

Let's hope the 00z GFS/Euro kick Irma OTS before 70W so I can enjoy the weekend and not be a prisoner to these model runs...

There are still plenty of shifts coming sadly. Windshield wiping is hard not to get sucked into.

[SFLcane]

It looks like it's started that wsw drop