ATL: HARVEY - Models

[HurricaneBrain]

Comparing 18z and 12z guidance:

[ROCK]

Another view of the 06Z HWRF.

LOL it's the HWRF thank goodness..

[RL3AO]

HMON is similar intensity although further south.

[Steve]

While we're in a lull waiting on more model runs want to ask about the chances of this getting back out into the gulf and making a second landfall somewhere in LA. I know it will come down to the speed of the shortwave dropping south into the trough and high building out over the SW US. But what are the chances this does what the euro shows or even worse, stalls closer to the coast and spends more time out over the gulf? The GFS is showing the same idea but it's much further north and inland with the system before it turns it east into central/northern LA. Will it start leaning to euros solution or vice versa?

Just got to work and was running the models. Pinball effect compliments of the Japanese Model 12z (yesterday), European 00z and the 00z Canadian. They all re-hit LA after milling around the TX Coast inland and offshore. Lots of punishing rain for the TX Coast if any of them verify:

CMC back offshore at 162 hours:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=259

CMC 2nd Landfall (or however many it is by then) at 210 hours (next Wed night) landfall in the Atchafalaya Bay
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=259

JMA - hasn't updated since 12z on the Tropical Tidbits site but does the same thing but quicker.

ECMWF - Back offshore at 168
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=259

ECMWF - Landfall in Cameron or Vermilion Parishes a 192 (next Wednesday morning)
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=259

?

[Stormcenter]

What a forecasting nightmare if this were to pan out. Thanks Steve for the info.

While we're in a lull waiting on more model runs want to ask about the chances of this getting back out into the gulf and making a second landfall somewhere in LA. I know it will come down to the speed of the shortwave dropping south into the trough and high building out over the SW US. But what are the chances this does what the euro shows or even worse, stalls closer to the coast and spends more time out over the gulf? The GFS is showing the same idea but it's much further north and inland with the system before it turns it east into central/northern LA. Will it start leaning to euros solution or vice versa?

Just got to work and was running the models. Pinball effect compliments of the Japanese Model 12z (yesterday), European 00z and the 00z Canadian. They all re-hit LA after milling around the TX Coast inland and offshore. Lots of punishing rain for the TX Coast if any of them verify:

CMC back offshore at 162 hours:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=259

CMC 2nd Landfall (or however many it is by then) at 210 hours (next Wed night) landfall in the Atchafalaya Bay
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=259

JMA - hasn't updated since 12z on the Tropical Tidbits site but does the same thing but quicker.

ECMWF - Back offshore at 168
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=259

ECMWF - Landfall in Cameron or Vermilion Parishes a 192 (next Wednesday morning)
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=259

?

[Steve]

No problem SC. Tough forecasting problem and big cleanup issues likely if that much of the coast is affected. Again, we're really lucky that the central TX Coast is more sparsely populated than other coastal points. You have Brownsville/Harlingen/McAllen and the RGV, Corpus Christi, Freeport area and then obviously Houston-Galveston and The Golden Triangle. But there are a lot of really empty spaces along the way that don't have much along the coast. There are the refuges, obviously very few people live in King's Ranch area and North Padre last time I was down there was somewhat sparse and also provides that barrier island protection for bigger storms.

Gonna get hot and heavy quick.

[ROCK]

No problem SC. Tough forecasting problem and big cleanup issues likely if that much of the coast is affected. Again, we're really lucky that the central TX Coast is more sparsely populated than other coastal points. You have Brownsville/Harlingen/McAllen and the RGV, Corpus Christi, Freeport area and then obviously Houston-Galveston and The Golden Triangle. But there are a lot of really empty spaces along the way that don't have much along the coast. There are the refuges, obviously very few people live in King's Ranch area and North Padre last time I was down there was somewhat sparse and also provides that barrier island protection for bigger storms.

Gonna get hot and heavy quick.

Right Steve and what's concerning is any wobbles or timing is off. This could very well track up the coast into LA.

[ROCK]

No problem SC. Tough forecasting problem and big cleanup issues likely if that much of the coast is affected. Again, we're really lucky that the central TX Coast is more sparsely populated than other coastal points. You have Brownsville/Harlingen/McAllen and the RGV, Corpus Christi, Freeport area and then obviously Houston-Galveston and The Golden Triangle. But there are a lot of really empty spaces along the way that don't have much along the coast. There are the refuges, obviously very few people live in King's Ranch area and North Padre last time I was down there was somewhat sparse and also provides that barrier island protection for bigger storms.

Gonna get hot and heavy quick.

Right Steve and what's concerning is any wobbles or timing is off. This could very well track up the coast into LA.

that trend from 18Z to 12Z yesterday is telling above...

[Steve]

Yeah, it's possible. I do think it's a Texas issue first. I'm curious to see if any of the 12z models take it back offshore or just travel it across SE Texas for the up and out. ECMWF/JMA/CMC alliance isn't probably one to bet against. But I haven't seen the 00z JMA today to know if it continues with that scenario as well.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

That's what I'm most interested in well. It's almost a given this will be a Texas first but how much and whom it affects second is still way up in the air. I do think if more big shifts were to occur or more models latch on to the euro and Canadians solution it will be the 12z and 0z runs today and tonight.

[stormreader]

Comparing 18z and 12z guidance:

Great image. Could easily have changes with that. I'm of a mind that the storm doesn't get as far west, does not make a landfall that far down the Texas coast. That it scoots up a little to the right, then wobbles NE some just before a landfall along the extreme upper Texas coast between Galveston and Sabine Pass (Tex-La) border, before continuing its NE journey into SW La.

[Alyono]

NAM weaker. Has more shear this run

[bohaiboy]

Can someone post an updated cumulative rain prediction model forecast? The mets here in Houston are being very nonchalant about this. Its as if they are being suppressed by corporate so as not to wreak havoc. Off to get some water and other necessities this morning and tuning up the old gen. We went 14 days and 13 hrs without electricity after Ike.

[Tireman4]

Can someone post an updated cumulative rain prediction model forecast? The mets here in Houston are being very nonchalant about this. Its as if they are being suppressed by corporate so as not to wreak havoc. Off to get some water and other necessities this morning and tuning up the old gen. We went 14 days and 13 hrs without electricity after Ike.

Well, as I stated before, Brooks Garner at KHOU is not. He has posted on his Facebook page and the KHOU Weatherboards. He hangs out alot at the Weatherboards... I cannot speak for the others.

[Steve]

Too far south to be taken seriously but the 12z NAM12km, 32km and 3km all have slightly different solutions. First it comes off the Yucatan and loops or stalls and then depending on the resolution picks up a northward component but eventually wants to go to the TX Coast (between mid and upper depending on the resolution you run). 3km is the tightest and it's the farthest south. But caution is that it only goes to 60 hours, so there's no end game on it yet. 12z is making a run for the SE TX Coast after a couple of spins or loops (runs to 84 hours). 32km is making a run for Galveston Bay.

[RL3AO]

Can someone post an updated cumulative rain prediction model forecast? The mets here in Houston are being very nonchalant about this. Its as if they are being suppressed by corporate so as not to wreak havoc. Off to get some water and other necessities this morning and tuning up the old gen. We went 14 days and 13 hrs without electricity after Ike.

I'd recommend using the WPC QPF forecast. It's already accounting for all the models and the human tweaking the forecasts.

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-7.shtml

[Steve]

Can someone post an updated cumulative rain prediction model forecast? The mets here in Houston are being very nonchalant about this. Its as if they are being suppressed by corporate so as not to wreak havoc. Off to get some water and other necessities this morning and tuning up the old gen. We went 14 days and 13 hrs without electricity after Ike.

Run these for Total Accumulated Precipitation:

GFS 00Z
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=518

CMC 00Z
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=690

JMA 12Z Yesterday
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=518

I don't have access or links to the EC total precip that was posted yesterday. Sorry.

[Steve]

Caution on that QPF this season though. Every major tropical and non-tropical even I've looked at this summer has been wildly underestimated. That's like 4 or 5 times this year so far.

[Exalt]

A potential developing Cat. 2 barreling into SE Texas should be talked about more than it currently has been.

[Steve]

A potential developing Cat. 2 barreling into SE Texas should be talked about more than it currently has been.

It will be. I was 2 pages behind on both threads when I woke up and I went to bed late. The panicked, out the woodwork and new crowd will be having this going nuts within the next couple of days.