ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

ok let me get caught up. been driving.

[Aric Dunn]

I mean really.. the euro which had a cut off low vs a open trough some how still managed to be farther west then the gfs ?

At what time frame? The cut off low vs open trough is impacting the system in 8 or 9 days. Of course the models have huge differences.

Lets start with your animations .. if you can sit there tell me they are not "flapping in the wind " take a closer look. you know .. back and forth ..

also look a the synoptics... each run ( REGARDLESS OF THE HURRICANES POSITON ) the synoptics are fairly consistent but at the same time throughout the last 2 days are varying .. the 12z vs 00z ... the downstream mechanism for "the turn" are different. in some cases not even the same energy.


I agree the hurricane's track and positon are similar ( only varying by a couple hundred miles lol ) but the reason for it has been not consistent.

the only consistent part has been the ridge that drives it WSW to SW after that the models have not been consistent. hence the nhc last discussion.

[Aric Dunn]

well night night we can discuss semantics tomorrow .. though tomorrow is my b-day so I might not be around all to much... though not much is going to change until sunday when the models will have a better idea on the down stream energy.

[Hammy]

935 mb.

[Sciencerocks]

944mb

The system will likely make landfall with pressures in the 950's.

Highest flight level winds of 121knts
Highest sfmr winds of 116knts

This will be in the Bahamas of course.

[Blinhart]

I'm sitting here watching Big Brother After Dark, just imagine if this does turn out to hit the Miami area, Josh will be getting out of the house and have no house to return to.

[brghteys1216]

Is it just me, or does Irma appear to be becoming Annular?

[AJC3]

Is it just me, or does Irma appear to be becoming Annular?

By definition, it's not even close, since the eye is indistinct. Remember, an annulus is a ring, and an annular hurricane is ring or donut-shaped, and usually characterized by large eyes. This is why they are often affectionately referred to by folks in the field as "truck tires". So, even though, the peripheral convective banding is limited with Irma right now, this is in no way an annular hurricane.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Is it just me, or does Irma appear to be becoming Annular?

By definition, it's not even close, since the eye is indistinct. Remember, an annulus is a ring, and an annular hurricane is ring or donut-shaped, and usually characterized by large eyes. This is why they are often affectionately referred to by folks in the field as "truck tires". So, even though, the peripheral convective banding is limited with Irma right now, this is in no way an annular hurricane.

Isn't this one of the things that just happens on this site? Everyone asking "is it going annular?" for every single storm?...

[brghteys1216]

Is it just me, or does Irma appear to be becoming Annular?

By definition, it's not even close, since the eye is indistinct. Remember, an annulus is a ring, and an annular hurricane is ring or donut-shaped, and usually characterized by large eyes. This is why they are often affectionately referred to by folks in the field as "truck tires". So, even though, the peripheral convective banding is limited with Irma right now, this is in no way an annular hurricane.

Isn't this one of the things that just happens on this site? Everyone asking "is it going annular?" for every single storm?...

I'm just an amateur and fan of tropical weather, hence why I was asking so a friendly met could educate me further.

[TheStormExpert]

Wise words!

 https://twitter.com/drrickknabb/status/903821496094789632

[Kingarabian]

Dvorak supports only 90kts and that may be generous considering its satellite presentation. Gonna need another 24 hours or so before it can take off.

[jlauderdal]

nhc continues on the southerly side of guidance and that is concerning regardless of any modeling i see because nhc is extremely good on track even out to 5 days..very important for the islands, bahamas and se united states...they have held firm on the s/sw side of the equation..first up cycloneye, msbee, etc....how far south and west does it get and does it make the turn when expected, its all about the angles, rare to see intensity locked down so far out in time..until nhc changes their tune, i am looking to the left of guidance and ensembles...yikes for now

[drezee]

Irma is ready to intensify...produced a fist three hours ago. Eye will clear out over next 3-6 hours

[northjaxpro]

nhc continues on the southerly side of guidance and that is concerning regardless of any modeling i see because nhc is extremely good on track even out to 5 days..very important for the islands, bahamas and se united states...they have held firm on the s/sw side of the equation..first up cycloneye, msbee, etc....how far south and west does it get and does it make the turn when expected, its all about the angles, rare to see intensity locked down so far out in time..until nhc changes their tune, i am looking to the left of guidance and ensembles...yikes for now

A very good post! first and foremost, our immediate concerns are the islands. I'm very concerned for our friends and neighbors down in the Northeast Caribbean . Cycloneye, gustywind and msbee in particular, I know you all are watching this situation extremely close given that Irma potentily will be bearing down on the islands later in the next 5-6 days. Keep us posted!!

[mrbagyo]

[tiger_deF]

Any dry air intrusion? It would certainly explain Irma's temporary weakening.

[USTropics]

Any dry air intrusion? It would certainly explain Irma's temporary weakening.

There certainly is, you can see this in the TPW imagery (and the GFS initialization as well):





SST's and OCH will improve shortly though:

[Sciencerocks]

Probably a close analog to the gfs

[Kingarabian]

[img]https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc17/ATL/11L.IRMA/tc_ssmis/composite/20170902.0854.f18.x.composite.11LIRMA.100kts-967mb-191N-411W.67pc.jpg[img]

Any dry air intrusion? It would certainly explain Irma's temporary weakening.

Green embedded in the core = dry air.