ATL: GERT - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

[Hurricaneman]

http://imageshack.com/a/img923/8035/jp7vBE.gif

Looks like the eye is clearing out, probably a hurricane

[Alyono]

it's probably a cane, but the Dvoraks are 3.5, so I highly doubt NHC will upgrade

[xironman]

My eyes are probably getting bad with age, but I don't see due North motion with this storm.

[tolakram]

18:32Z

[NotoSans]

Up to 55kt as per the latest best track update, perhaps due to consensus T3.5/3.5 Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Looks a bit low to me tbh.

AL, 08, 2017081418, , BEST, 0, 302N, 723W, 55, 996, TS, 34, NEQ, 90, 80, 30, 60, 1014, 140, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GERT, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,

[wxman57]

I went with 60 kts in my forecast. Looks close to hurricane strength.

[GCANE]

[Hammy]

Have the models yet again overestimated the shear?

Interestingly if you look back through the satellite archives that are out there, the appearance and latitude remind me of Bob in 1991, about how it looked at this point--could the track and intensity be similar (though shifted east by hundreds of miles?)

[xironman]

Looks like some meso's swinging around the nascent eye wall.

[CrazyC83]

There is no Recon planned, correct? Since this shouldn't be a land threat at all.

I would probably go 60 kt right now...I'd want to see more conclusive data before upgrading to a hurricane, like a clear microwave image.

[cycloneye]

There is no Recon planned, correct? Since this shouldn't be a land threat at all.

No plans for recon to fly to Gert.

[EquusStorm]

The banding and CDO definitely remind me of a storm about to cross the hurricane threshold. Would be nice to have recon but whatevs. It's an exciting little storm though... definitely not one of those marginal transient TS we've had many of these last few years.

[chaser1]

Yep, if the shear abates at all and given that 30C GoGo juice (SST's), it wouldn't surprise me if Gert briefly ran up (or close) to a Cat.2 hurricane before its all said and done.

[gatorcane]

Is that an eye popping out?

[cycloneye]

@NOAASatellitePA
UPDATE: NOAA's #GOES16 captured #TropicalStormGert, gaining a bit of strength this afternoon, August 14, 2017, in the Atlantic

 https://twitter.com/NOAASatellitePA/status/897189396444831745

[AxaltaRacing24]

Is that an eye popping out?

https://s11.postimg.org/n4ab8gl8j/vis_lalo-animated.gif

Yes. It's going to be a hurricane by tomorrow at the latest.

[storminabox]

I think in the 5pm advisory, the NHC will upgrade Gert to a 70 mph tropical storm.

[weathaguyry]

Is that an eye popping out?

https://s11.postimg.org/n4ab8gl8j/vis_lalo-animated.gif

Yes. It's going to be a hurricane by tomorrow at the latest.

Looks like a pretty large eye!

[Langinbang187]

Looks like a borderline Hurricane.