ATL: IRMA - Models

[KWT]

Euro through 144, HP looks a bit weaker, I'm betting we see a WNW to NW track through 240 hrs...

Yeah agreed, we are slowly seeing the models narrowing into each other, the GFS is moving slowly south and the ECM is going slightly north on this run.

Probably a Florida hit with this run, upper high is still strong enough to keep it chugging along.

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro 168 hours:

[SFLcane]

Ouch at 144 right over you Luis..

[forecasterjack]

This would be devastating for the islands

[WeatherEmperor]

@tolakram, the ridge is stronger and the trough is further west!!


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[sma10]

Euro through 144, HP looks a bit weaker, I'm betting we see a WNW to NW track through 240 hrs...

That is far from certain... looks like HP building as trough retrogrades West

[SouthFLTropics]

12Z Euro 168 hours:

You can see the trough is cutting off and lifting to the North. This isn't going to end well for the peninsula.

[KWT]

ECM down to 937mbs by 150hrs in and raking the NE Caribbean. Very worrying situation for the Ne Caribbean and gotta hope the GFS is onto something with its early climb otherwise we are going to have a monster rolling on through the islands.

[shawn6304]

That is about the last place we want that storm correct , just north of the mountains?

Also is that "jose" back in the picture?

[Blown Away]

HP does look stronger at 168 hrs...

[AxaltaRacing24]

12Z Euro 168 hours:

You can see the trough is cutting off and lifting to the North. This isn't going to end well for the peninsula.

It will either bury it into Cuba or pull it up into us.

[forecasterjack]

ECMWF moves Irma N of Hispaniola with no opportunity for the island's mountains to shred the circulation.

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro 192 hours. This does not look good. That is quite a ridge.

[OntarioEggplant]

The Euro's path for Irma through the islands reminds me a lot of Luis in 1995.

[Dean4Storms]

Eastern Gulf, ridge building back.

[Blown Away]

Uh oh!

[SouthFLTropics]

192 hours puts it almost exactly in the same position as yesterdays 12z run at the same hour.

[tolakram]

[Dean4Storms]

Should head for South FL then over into the eastern Gulf.

[AxaltaRacing24]