ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[dukeblue219]

Honestly hope this storm does turn OTS. It's a tragedy what has happened thus far in the Caribbean, and I am in sorrow for all suffering.

To go OTS it basically has to hit somebody first, unfortunately.

[Gustywind]

I'm really glad that you're ok Gusty.

Thanks but winds are always strong in gusts during the spirals bands at 150 km/h, huge showers are expected till the day, and we should be confined till 11 or 12 AM given the authorities. Numerous damages have been reported, but luckily i had power during the strong part of the episode! I will keep you informed.

[dukeblue219]

Dropsonde showed 199mph gust about 500ft up. I wonder if we'll ever know the peak gusts experienced on the front face of the mountain on Dominica.

[Kenderkin17]

Yeah, reality is a mean lady. I'm not liking the way this radar is shaping up though. There is a lot going on in the GOM right now that makes me wonder exactly how this one is going to play out.

*** Not professional, just an opinionated idiot. Please see NHS, and NOAA for any and all forecasts, information, and planning. ***

[GCANE]

Large convective burst of eyewall hot towers starting up.
Given the 75 mm/hr rain rate, it was just a matter of time.
Wonder if she goes sub 900mb.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/ ... mmb-slider

[GCANE]

Going to start sucking in the massive pool of high CAPE air to the west.

[GCANE]

Warm core must be massive.
Last drop in the SE eyewall showed a step jump up in temperature above 800 mb.

[PandaCitrus]

Is there a good chance maria misses Puerto Rico to the northeast? The gfs seems to keep wanting to do that.

[GCANE]

Could be a sign of the start of an EWRC

[GCANE]

Can see the meso-vorticies in the eye.

[cjrciadt]

NE pass underway!

[SouthDadeFish]

Cloud tops have rapidly cooled near the eyewall over the past hour or so. I would imagine Maria is strengthening again. SFMR may find very strong winds in NE eyewall considering what the dropsonde that rotated trough there showed.

[tolakram]

visible loop

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso2-02-48-1-100

SLIDER

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_02&x=1080.5&y=1039.5&z=2&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[euro6208]

Honestly hope this storm does turn OTS. It's a tragedy what has happened thus far in the Caribbean, and I am in sorrow for all suffering.

To go OTS it basically has to hit somebody first, unfortunately.

Let me guess, you are in the U.S? Already millions of people will feel the wrath of this. The caribbean gets it worst than the U.S.

[tolakram]

[GCANE]

Wonder if they make a turn to heading 180 to catch the possible secondary eyewall forming.

[Dave C]

Starting to show up on long range radar from Puerto Rico now. very tight little eyewall feature.

[NDG]

Maria's eyewall is so high that PR's long range radar is already catching it nicely that far away.

[jlauderdal]

Bad storm for the Caribbean, but it's looking more likely it won't be a threat to the East U.S. Coast. Chances of it passing within 125 miles of Florida down to 2-3%. Still about a 5% chance for the Outer Banks. Deep trof/front approaching the East Coast early next week should steer it northeastward. Time to head to the office to work on the next Maria advisory...

Time to start looking at the gulf for future florida threats

[NDG]

Bad storm for the Caribbean, but it's looking more likely it won't be a threat to the East U.S. Coast. Chances of it passing within 125 miles of Florida down to 2-3%. Still about a 5% chance for the Outer Banks. Deep trof/front approaching the East Coast early next week should steer it northeastward. Time to head to the office to work on the next Maria advisory...

Time to start looking at the gulf for future florida threats

And NW Caribbean.