ATL: CINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[RL3AO]

It's all about the pressure gradient (rate of change of pressure over distance), not the lowest pressure. With a storm as spread out as Cindy, 996mb or even 990mb won't amount to much wind. But if Cindy was a tiny storm with a tight core, then 990mb might result in close to hurricane strength.

-(1/ρ)∇p or something right

(Well per unit mass to get the force...but still)

[cycloneye]

Recon is in there now?

The morning mission is over.Here is the whole flight.

[Steve]

This should be called subtropical storm IMO. Naked swirl, dying convection displaced well to the east. Amazing that this is only 200 some miles south of LA coast and almost everyone south of I-10 is dry. Kind of get how people feel up in the northeast when they have that big noreaster and get completely dry slotted.

Dry south of I-10 are you kidding me. I'm in Panama City and have had over 4 inches of rain. Plenty of other people south of I-10 have had that much if not more.

Was talking about south Louisiana.

We got probably 3" so far. I'm not sure if we'll get a ton more. It's going to depend on feeder moisture. I still think S AL and NW FL are going to get the worst of the rain. But there are still ongoing tornado warnings in South MS (2 currently as I'm typing this out).

[jabman98]

A bit gustier here in Houston this morning than I was expecting. Nothing major, just a bit more than I thought we'd see at this point.

[Steve]

Also, this has been a day weighted storm that's been recharging in the overnight. They're all a little different, but Cindy gets juiced in the day time and then tapers off usually around 10-11pm. Higher cloud tops are showing up on JSL. We'll have to see what she brings up on the wet side today as well as what she does nearer to landfall.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[djmikey]

A bit gustier here in Houston this morning than I was expecting. Nothing major, just a bit more than I thought we'd see at this point.

I was thinking the same here Jab! Im in Beaumont, and winds here are certainly picking up. Not anything to write home about but it sure has that tropical feel to it.

[BobHarlem]

 https://twitter.com/HerzogWeather/status/877522845039038465




Trying to confirm that tweet, pressure is dropping, it does seem to be a bit west, but not sure about the shear part. The convection on the NW side is firing this morning though.

[Stormcenter]

Doesn't seem to be in any hurry and looks better organized. IMO



http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=gulf-02-24-1

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/HerzogWeather/status/877522845039038465




Trying to confirm that tweet, pressure is dropping, it does seem to be a bit west, but not sure about the shear part. The convection on the NW side is firing this morning though.

Shear is dropping due to the gradual filling of the upper level low, but it's still present. KLCH and KLIX still had 35 kt SW winds above 200 mb in their 12Z soundings. Dry air is still a major problem too.

[sphelps8681]

 https://twitter.com/HerzogWeather/status/877522845039038465




Trying to confirm that tweet, pressure is dropping, it does seem to be a bit west, but not sure about the shear part. The convection on the NW side is firing this morning though.

Does say on his twitter page the wind shear has backed off.

[jabman98]

A bit gustier here in Houston this morning than I was expecting. Nothing major, just a bit more than I thought we'd see at this point.

I was thinking the same here Jab! Im in Beaumont, and winds here are certainly picking up. Not anything to write home about but it sure has that tropical feel to it.

Yeah! It surprised me. I'm taking care of my neighbor's house while she's out of town and I was just thinking I was glad I didn't have to prep her house and yard. Then I went outside and a strong gust kind of blew me backwards a step. Like I said, nothing major but I wasn't expecting that. It's cloudy too. You can tell a tropical system is nearby. We've been really dry here for a few weeks so we could use a little rain so it would be nice if we got an inch or two.

[wxman57]

Just a reminder to keep the discussions civil today. Don't attack anyone for being "wrong" or whatever. If I see any of that I'll force you to endure a REALLY warm winter next December-February. For now, I'll keep my promise of a cold, icy winter for the Deep South.

[cajungal]

I live in Thibodaux. An hour southwest of New Orleans. We had some heavy rain and wind last night. But now sun has been peeking through all morning and it is calm.

[BobHarlem]

https://twitter.com/HerzogWeather/status/877522845039038465

Trying to confirm that tweet, pressure is dropping, it does seem to be a bit west, but not sure about the shear part. The convection on the NW side is firing this morning though.

Shear is dropping due to the gradual filling of the upper level low, but it's still present. KLCH and KLIX still had 35 kt SW winds above 200 mb in their 12Z soundings. Dry air is still a major problem too.

http://i.imgur.com/4sOXeFE.gif

Yeah the dry air is really cutting to the heart of Cindy, heck most of the rainfall is in the Panhandle, well away from it.

[TwinMom1021]

BTR mets mentioning increased tornado threat this afternoon and overnight tonight for SE LA and MS.

[Cuda17]

Sure does look like Cindy is taking a jog West to WSW of the NHC line...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/03L/flash-rgb-long.html

[caneman]

You expect heavy rains and tornados with these types of systems. Maybe it will make one last run but looks awfully dry surrounding the llc. I'd be surprised if it has enough time to fill in but never say never

[Stormcenter]

Another loop in the making?

Sure does look like Cindy is taking a jog West to WSW of the NHC line...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/03L/flash-rgb-long.html

[Cuda17]

Another loop in the making?

Sure does look like Cindy is taking a jog West to WSW of the NHC line...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/03L/flash-rgb-long.html

Could be, just so hard to tell what's going on with such a massive CoC.

[tropicwatch]

10am PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
I am not sure where they get 10mph from looking at the past recon fixes and satellite images. Somewhat confused