ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[newtotex]

Even though this is a ways out, I am seeing 5000 CAPE in the NW end of the GOM.
Goes to show you how juiced it is.
Doesn't get much higher than that.

That's some crazy CAPE. I didn't realize hurricanes were affected by CAPE in the same way tornadoes were? Instability for the thunderstorms to build I guess?

[South Texas Storms]

Quick question for any of the pro METS on here. How is this not a TS? I have personally seen much worse from recently named TSs.

I bet the NHC is waiting for recon to get in there and confirm before upgrading it. I'm thinking it will get upgraded at 10pm.

[SouthDadeFish]

Quick question for any of the pro METS on here. How is this not a TS? I have personally seen much worse from recently named TSs.

Because there isn't any clear evidence of TS-force winds. Since the system isn't moving much, there isn't a component of motion to be added onto the overall circulation, which helps explain the weaker winds found by recon earlier. Harvey may be a TS at this time, but without scatterometer observations, recon, or subjective Dvorak estimates saying so, there isn't justification for an upgrade at this time.

[tolakram]

As night arrives here's the SLIDER shortwave. Banding looks to be setting up now.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=conus&x=5241.5&y=6185.5&z=2&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=6&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

visible
http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=conus&x=5241.5&y=6185.5&z=2&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[lrak]

Man I've be in Houston all day and they were all saying this will be a SE Texas event. Now I get home and log on to Storm2K and ask WTH? Is Corpus Christi going to experience a Hurricane?

[South Texas Storms]

Man I've be in Houston all day and they were all saying this will be a SE Texas event. Now I get home and log on to Storm2K and ask WTH? Is Corpus Christi going to experience a Hurricane?

Yeah I think Corpus Christi has a decent shot at seeing hurricane conditions with Harvey.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Quick question for any of the pro METS on here. How is this not a TS? I have personally seen much worse from recently named TSs.

Because there isn't any clear evidence of TS-force winds. Since the system isn't moving much, there isn't a component of motion to be added onto the overall circulation, which helps explain the weaker winds found by recon earlier. Harvey may be a TS at this time, but without scatterometer observations, recon, or subjective Dvorak estimates saying so, there isn't justification for an upgrade at this time.

I thought I seen an estimate on it earlier today of 2.7. I could be wrong though, and we will find out soon enough. Just the best looking TD I have ever seen.

[lrak]

Man I've be in Houston all day and they were all saying this will be a SE Texas event. Now I get home and log on to Storm2K and ask WTH? Is Corpus Christi going to experience a Hurricane?

Yeah I think Corpus Christi has a decent shot at seeing hurricane conditions with Harvey.

thank you, I don't have to read pages and pages. I'm kinda in shock.

[Kingarabian]

Quick question for any of the pro METS on here. How is this not a TS? I have personally seen much worse from recently named TSs.

Because there isn't any clear evidence of TS-force winds. Since the system isn't moving much, there isn't a component of motion to be added onto the overall circulation, which helps explain the weaker winds found by recon earlier. Harvey may be a TS at this time, but without scatterometer observations, recon, or subjective Dvorak estimates saying so, there isn't justification for an upgrade at this time.

I thought I seen an estimate on it earlier today of 2.7. I could be wrong though, and we will find out soon enough. Just the best looking TD I have ever seen.

SAB came in with a 2.0, and that's what the NHC usually goes with when it comes to newly developed systems.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Because there isn't any clear evidence of TS-force winds. Since the system isn't moving much, there isn't a component of motion to be added onto the overall circulation, which helps explain the weaker winds found by recon earlier. Harvey may be a TS at this time, but without scatterometer observations, recon, or subjective Dvorak estimates saying so, there isn't justification for an upgrade at this time.

I thought I seen an estimate on it earlier today of 2.7. I could be wrong though, and we will find out soon enough. Just the best looking TD I have ever seen.

SAB came in with a 2.0, and that's what the NHC usually goes with when it comes to newly developed systems.

What is 2.0? Is it a TD?

[Kingarabian]

I thought I seen an estimate on it earlier today of 2.7. I could be wrong though, and we will find out soon enough. Just the best looking TD I have ever seen.

SAB came in with a 2.0, and that's what the NHC usually goes with when it comes to newly developed systems.

What is 2.0? Is it a TD?

Yes.

[RL3AO]

Quick question for any of the pro METS on here. How is this not a TS? I have personally seen much worse from recently named TSs.

It's not really that well organized if you're looking at banded convection. I think in the Atlantic we're just biased to TDs that are embedded within 20 knot easterlies and therefore have a much less impressive circulation. Those stronger background winds also make it easier to get a 35kt wind without the banding structure that Dvorak requires for a typical WPAC/EPAC tropical storm (which Harvey is more similar too).

[tatertawt24]

Yikes, it hasn't even reformed into a TS yet and states of emergencies have already been declared? How often does that happen?

More frequent in recent years. States and counties are getting smarter and trying to prepare and place resources well before the storm impacts an area.

Weird, I don't remember the other instances. Did they do it with Bill in 2015? I remember that one taking forever to form a LLC.

[CrazyC83]

Seeing SFMR values in the 30s already on the first set of operational data. 35 and 36 were flagged though.

[Alyono]

Seeing SFMR values in the 30s already on the first set of operational data. 35 and 36 were flagged though.

do NOT use the auto flagging to determine if the winds are valid. Those winds are about 133% of the flight level winds. Likely not valid

[floridasun78]

can their be chance that wont be hurr only strong ts but we know ts can be big rainy maker as hurr?

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

18z NAVGEM much stronger and near or slightly south of the 12z run...makes landfall near Baffin Bay.

OK it's 48 hours out will you tell me if I should evacuate or not I'm on Mustang island in corpus christi thoughts ?

[hohnywx]

can their be chance that wont be hurr only strong ts but we know ts can be big rainy maker as hurr?

Of course there is a chance, but it is not looking likely. Most globals and the NHC are anticipating a hurricane at landfall.

[South Texas Storms]

18z NAVGEM much stronger and near or slightly south of the 12z run...makes landfall near Baffin Bay.

OK it's 48 hours out will you tell me if I should evacuate or not I'm on Mustang island in corpus christi thoughts ?

I think there's a pretty good chance of hurricane conditions there, but it's up to you to make that call.

[RL3AO]

18z NAVGEM much stronger and near or slightly south of the 12z run...makes landfall near Baffin Bay.

OK it's 48 hours out will you tell me if I should evacuate or not I'm on Mustang island in corpus christi thoughts ?

Are you in an area prone to storm surge? Do you know how far above sea level your house is? Do you know if you are in an evacuation zone? Do you know where to find evacuation information. These are all critical questions to have answers to now.