ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tropicwatch]

Thinking upgrade to TS at 7, recon finding some 35kt winds.

[SouthDadeFish]

Thinking upgrade to TS at 7, recon finding some 35kt winds.

I don't see any evidence of TS-force winds so far. Flight-level winds have all been below 35 kt.

[HouTXmetro]

So now the trend is away from SE Texas/SW LA even after landfall?

[jaguars_22]

Port o Connor ? Since we are on north of the gfs and others now

[tropicwatch]

Thinking upgrade to TS at 7, recon finding some 35kt winds.

I don't see any evidence of TS-force winds so far. Flight-level winds have all been below 35 kt.

There are a couple of 35kt surface winds indicated in this graph with not too heavy of rain rate.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF305-0909A-HARVEY_timeseries.png

[Cpv17]

So now the trend is away from SE Texas/SW LA even after landfall?

No one knows for sure what the heck this thing is gonna do! Just be prepared just in case.

[AJC3]

18z NAVGEM much stronger and near or slightly south of the 12z run...makes landfall near Baffin Bay.

OK it's 48 hours out will you tell me if I should evacuate or not I'm on Mustang island in corpus christi thoughts ?

You really should make that decision based on a recommendation or mandatory notice given by your local (county or city level) authorities.

[SouthDadeFish]

Thinking upgrade to TS at 7, recon finding some 35kt winds.

I don't see any evidence of TS-force winds so far. Flight-level winds have all been below 35 kt.

There are a couple of 35kt surface winds indicated in this graph with not too heavy of rain rate.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF305-0909A-HARVEY_timeseries.png

The rain rate was still over 10 mm/hr in those spikes. Flight-level winds would be more reliable. I doubt they upgrade based on anything I've seen so far, but stronger winds may exist elsewhere.

[Sciencerocks]

Recon heads east...Likely if it does have a closed LLC to be found east of where they thought it was.

[CrazyC83]

Pressure looks to be down quite a bit - it went away at 1006mb with 925mb heights of 740 and it's down to 710 now. Pressure probably around 1002 so far.

[ScottNAtlanta]

For whatever reason...there have not been any sfc pressure readings in a while now from recon...last one was 1006 well away from where they are now. I think they are getting close to the center.

[South Texas Storms]

Evening video update from Levi: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/2017/08/23/wednesday-evening-harvey-reforms-likely-to-become-a-hurricane-and-impact-texas-with-dangerous-flooding/

[hd44]

Pressure down to 1003. Intensifying though cimss says 500 mb vort still a bit displaced north of 700/850 vorts.

[hd44]

Storms exploding over the coc.

[tolakram]

SLIDER MESOSCALE view, 1 minute refresh

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_02&x=1010&y=1007&z=1&im=60&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=6&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[psyclone]

You can see Harvey feasting on the afternoon convection emerging off the Yucatan. This is a rather large system...big impacts will likely happen well away from the center..

[ROCK]

has to be a TS now...geez...best TD I have ever seen..

[tolakram]

has to be a TS now...geez...best TD I have ever seen..

Levi did a good job describing what needed to happen to us amateurs. The big bloc of convection NE of the center is a trough of low pressure and until it can choke it off and consolidate there won't be much increase in wind speed.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

A mass of low level cloud is associated with this td when it wraps up tighter its likely game over.

[Sciencerocks]

has to be a TS now...geez...best TD I have ever seen..

System is growing in size instead of focusing on "wind".

When it finally starts strengthening this will be a large hurricane.