ATL: HARVEY - Models

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tolakram
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1481 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 22, 2017 1:08 pm

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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1482 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Aug 22, 2017 1:11 pm

The same models that just a few days ago said this was only a Mexico issue....sorry but everything is still only the table until whatever develops is inland. IMO



Thetxhurricanemaster wrote:
Blinhart wrote:
Thetxhurricanemaster wrote:The 18Z spaghetti models will likely show a more border hit or corpus christi !


Don't think there is a chance of a Mexico/Texas border hit, more like Louisiana/Texas border hit.

Maybe after stalling but no model shows this hitting Louisiana first except 1 Euro ESEMBLE member so I'm pretty sure right now it would be safe to say that this is a southern texas system then it stalls and moves towards Louisiana
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hd44

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1483 Postby hd44 » Tue Aug 22, 2017 1:12 pm

So the model is saying if is weaker it moves further west and quicker. Jma is pretty similar to the Ecmwf at 72 with weak or no development.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1484 Postby Alyono » Tue Aug 22, 2017 1:14 pm

EC going for a sheared tropical storm at landfall. Vastly different from most of the other models
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1485 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 22, 2017 1:16 pm

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hd44

Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1486 Postby hd44 » Tue Aug 22, 2017 1:16 pm

The system needs to tighten up quickly because it needs to over come the upper level low to the nw and establish outflow. The whole key to intensity is the next 24 hours. It could be either a weak ts or a major cane. Both scenario are on the table with the 00z gfs/ 12z ecmwf solutions.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1487 Postby Alyono » Tue Aug 22, 2017 1:19 pm

hd44 wrote:The system needs to tighten up quickly because it needs to over come the upper level low to the nw and establish outflow. The whole key to intensity is the next 24 hours. It could be either a weak ts or a major cane. Both scenario are on the table with the 00z gfs/ 12z ecmwf solutions.


the models are saying that it's the final 24 hours before landfall that will determine the intensity. Most have a weak to moderate tropical storm until then. The latest EC shows little intensification as it approaches. Looks like Cindy 2.0. Other models show a full hurricane
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1488 Postby hd44 » Tue Aug 22, 2017 1:21 pm

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2017082212/jma_z500_mslp_eus_4.png
Jma also has a shear stormed like the ecmwf as mentioned above.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1489 Postby msp » Tue Aug 22, 2017 1:22 pm

euro pretty much has no difference in position at 96hrs, but, as already posted, is much weaker
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1490 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 22, 2017 1:22 pm

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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1491 Postby hd44 » Tue Aug 22, 2017 1:24 pm

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif
Didn't see the ukmet posted. Looks like it is the strongest at 12z.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1492 Postby davidiowx » Tue Aug 22, 2017 1:25 pm

Perhaps the Euro is thinking the ULL will hamper development and push it more on a westward track?
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1493 Postby Blown Away » Tue Aug 22, 2017 1:26 pm

Euro big drop off in intensity through 96 hours and landfall in S Tx... Weak TS...
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1494 Postby Nederlander » Tue Aug 22, 2017 1:26 pm

I am curious to know why the models aren't showing much strengthening? Shear forecast? There doesn't seem to be a copious amount at the moment. SSTs are in the upper 80s. Just curious to hear an educated opinion on the models keeping it weak.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1495 Postby Wx_Warrior » Tue Aug 22, 2017 1:26 pm

EURO 12z, 120H

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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1496 Postby Alyono » Tue Aug 22, 2017 1:26 pm

davidiowx wrote:Perhaps the Euro is thinking the ULL will hamper development and push it more on a westward track?


it's an upper low over Mexico, not the one in the Gulf, that causes the shear
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1497 Postby PTrackerLA » Tue Aug 22, 2017 1:26 pm

Looks like the Euro could be abandoning the ENE turn as well at 120hrs.

Edit: I was wrong, heads back to the coast ESE at 144hrs.
Last edited by PTrackerLA on Tue Aug 22, 2017 1:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1498 Postby hd44 » Tue Aug 22, 2017 1:28 pm

Ecmwf again starting to move east at 144 , could be back over water similar to past 2 runs.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1499 Postby Janie2006 » Tue Aug 22, 2017 1:30 pm

GFS is probably sniffing out a strengthening ridge over the Southwest...in combination with the strong-ish through making its way into the Midwest that is going to help break down the upper ridge over a lot of the Southeast. Now, whether that happens is quite another matter.
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Re: ATL: HARVEY - Models

#1500 Postby Pearl River » Tue Aug 22, 2017 1:30 pm

The Euro at 144 actually looks like it pushes it back southeast because of the building western ridge.

jmho
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