ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[BeRad954]

What would happen if the SW bend was deeper? Would that shift the guidance more west and south as well?

[NDG]

I would had feel much better for FL and eastern US if the trough was to deepen over the SE US and push offshore into the Atlantic, east of FL like they did back in 2010 and 2011.
Like I've been saying if the trough is weaker and lifts up really quick it will give time for the Bermuda ridge to retrograde back to the north of Irma when it nears the area of the Bahamas,
IMO.

[WeatherLovingDoc]

Friend has flight to Antiqua on the 9th for week of vacation. Advice?

[alan1961]

Space Station just made a pass over Irma

[curtadams]

Friend has flight to Antiqua on the 9th for week of vacation. Advice?

Wait. Irma will pass or strike Antigua on the 6th. Your friend can make his decision on the 7th after it has happened. Most likely Antigua will not be seriously affected although it's not safe until Irma is past and a catastrophic strike is a reasonable possibility, with a problematic near-miss more likely.

[TheStormExpert]

I would had feel much better for FL and eastern US if the trough was to deepen over the SE US and push offshore into the Atlantic, east of FL like they did back in 2010 and 2011.
Like I've been saying if the trough is weaker and lifts up really quick it will give time for the Bermuda ridge to retrograde back to the north of Irma when it nears the area of the Bahamas,
IMO.

So you don't think Florida is out of the woods just yet?

[AxaltaRacing24]

I would had feel much better for FL and eastern US if the trough was to deepen over the SE US and push offshore into the Atlantic, east of FL like they did back in 2010 and 2011.
Like I've been saying if the trough is weaker and lifts up really quick it will give time for the Bermuda ridge to retrograde back to the north of Irma when it nears the area of the Bahamas,
IMO.

So you don't think Florida is out of the woods just yet?

No. Too far out still. We will know more after the SW dip.

[BobHarlem]

I would had feel much better for FL and eastern US if the trough was to deepen over the SE US and push offshore into the Atlantic, east of FL like they did back in 2010 and 2011.
Like I've been saying if the trough is weaker and lifts up really quick it will give time for the Bermuda ridge to retrograde back to the north of Irma when it nears the area of the Bahamas,
IMO.

So you don't think Florida is out of the woods just yet?

It's beyond 5 days, why would anyone say that now? Florida's odds are a heck of a lot less than others though, I think out to sea is more likely than Florida, but both are still possible.

[frey]

Friend has flight to Antiqua on the 9th for week of vacation. Advice?

Wait. Irma will pass or strike Antigua on the 6th. Your friend can make his decision on the 7th after it has happened. Most likely Antigua will not be seriously affected although it's not safe until Irma is past and a catastrophic strike is a reasonable possibility, with a problematic near-miss more likely.

And remind them to always purchase travel insurance when traveling during hurricane season

[psyclone]

I would had feel much better for FL and eastern US if the trough was to deepen over the SE US and push offshore into the Atlantic, east of FL like they did back in 2010 and 2011.
Like I've been saying if the trough is weaker and lifts up really quick it will give time for the Bermuda ridge to retrograde back to the north of Irma when it nears the area of the Bahamas,
IMO.

So you don't think Florida is out of the woods just yet?

It's beyond 5 days, why would anyone say that now? Florida's odds are a heck of a lot less than others though, I think out to sea is more likely than Florida, but both are still possible.

Recognizing a reducing risk for a given area doesn't mean they're "out of the woods"...it simply means the risk has reduced some. As of now that's the case for Florida. If you look at the EURO ensemble map posted by US tropics, Florida went from 10 strikes to 6 and all 6 were concentrated on the east coast. the earlier run with 10 hits had a few in the eastern gulf. those disappeared on the latest iteration. at this juncture you have to look for trends. there's a reason we don't have 10 day forecast tracks from the NHC (thank goodness) but it's important to realize that a reducing threat for a given area doesn't= no threat...but simply that it has reduced to some extent (while remaining cognizant that things could reverse yet again)

[tiger_deF]

How about instead of discussing models on the hurricane page, how about we actually look at the current status of the hurricane, like its intensity, look, dvorak signature, and other features? The last talk about the actual hurricane is 2 pages back, and meaningless speculation is rampant.

[Yellow Evan]

Holding steady at T5.0 I think.

[GCANE]

[NDG]

I would had feel much better for FL and eastern US if the trough was to deepen over the SE US and push offshore into the Atlantic, east of FL like they did back in 2010 and 2011.
Like I've been saying if the trough is weaker and lifts up really quick it will give time for the Bermuda ridge to retrograde back to the north of Irma when it nears the area of the Bahamas,
IMO.

So you don't think Florida is out of the woods just yet?

Nope.

[GCANE]

Jeff tracking Irma for his next chase.

https://www.pscp.tv/w/1DXGyOEjOvvxM

[NDG]

How about instead of discussing models on the hurricane page, how about we actually look at the current status of the hurricane, like its intensity, look, dvorak signature, and other features? The last talk about the actual hurricane is 2 pages back, and meaningless speculation is rampant.

This is a discussion page, anything goes from posting about a storm's current status, to personal forecasts, to personal discussions, pros' tweets, NHC's discussions & forecasts etc.
I believe if you go to the first page of this thread you will find all updated information on the storm.

[TheStormExpert]

I would had feel much better for FL and eastern US if the trough was to deepen over the SE US and push offshore into the Atlantic, east of FL like they did back in 2010 and 2011.
Like I've been saying if the trough is weaker and lifts up really quick it will give time for the Bermuda ridge to retrograde back to the north of Irma when it nears the area of the Bahamas,
IMO.

So you don't think Florida is out of the woods just yet?

Nope.

Any idea on when we might know?

[NDG]

So you don't think Florida is out of the woods just yet?

Nope.

Any idea on when we might know?

When is near the Lesser Antilles we should have a better idea.

[Blinhart]

How about instead of discussing models on the hurricane page, how about we actually look at the current status of the hurricane, like its intensity, look, dvorak signature, and other features? The last talk about the actual hurricane is 2 pages back, and meaningless speculation is rampant.

This is a discussion page, anything goes from posting about a storm's current status, to personal forecasts, to personal discussions, pros' tweets, NHC's discussions & forecasts etc.
I believe if you go to the first page of this thread you will find all updated information on the storm.

And it used to be we would discuss models here also, or they would have a separate page for model discussion and page for just posting models no discussion, just like we do with recon..

[gatorcane]

Going to need to watch how close Irma gets to the Lesse Antilles. Latest GFS ensembles had a decent shift SW with some ensembles reaching the islands. How much latitude this loses is critical.