ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[txwatcher91]

Regardless of the actual landfall, areas near and to the north of the storm will experience a “firehose” of moisture dropping a ton of rain. The biggest threat right now appears to be widespread flooding and everyone in SE TX needs to prepare for the worst. It’s better to be over-prepared rather than caught off guard.

Also, in my opinion this will make a run for a major hurricane, especially if it goes a bit more north like the UK shows.

[1900hurricane]

I like the developing anticyclonic outflow jet.

[davidiowx]

I like the developing anticyclonic outflow jet.

http://i.imgur.com/cnRrkX0.gif

http://i.imgur.com/L7kELdQ.gif

I do too.. but it's a bad sign for the TX coast. The stall today has allowed it to consolidate and stack itself. Interesting times to come.

[ROCK]

Yes organized some but it still hasn't tap the TCP. Needs to build a core like building an engine. The gas is there but if the spark plugs are missing it ain't going anywhere.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

The upper level high pressure to the east is forcing the air along that outflow jet.

[1900hurricane]

I like the developing anticyclonic outflow jet.

[images removed]

I do too.. but it's a bad sign for the TX coast. The stall today has allowed it to consolidate and stack itself. Interesting times to come.

Oh yeah, for sure. As a meteorology major and a tropical cyclone fan in general, I often speak relative to the storm. I probably should have rephrased to "That is a good developing anticyclonic outflow jet" or something similar.

Anyway, under ideal conditions, an outflow channel like that can help promote rapid intensification once a core is established. At the moment, there is some relatively drier air lurking off to the northwest of the system, which is denoted by some of the lighter blues and greens in the recent F-18 pass, which I have provided below. KBRO, or Brownsville, appears to be within this swath, so I pulled the 00Z sounding from there (also provided below) to see that airmass's characteristics. Sure enough, it shows a (relatively) dry profile with decent dewpoint depressions and a PW of only 1.83". This is an airmass that will limit Harvey if it becomes entrained within the circulation, but it's somewhat difficult to tell how much of an effect it might have, particularly since Harvey appears to be in a fairly low shear environment at the moment.

[Hammy]

Still 15-20kt of shear and quite a bit of dry air to the SW that seems to be preventing intensification--I'm still not seeing this make hurricane intensity and with the westward trend to the models, it'll have less time over water as well.

[jasons2k]

Tropical Depression Harvey Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft suggest
that Harvey's structure has consolidated a little bit, with the
pressure falling to 1002 mb and the radius of maximum winds
shrinking to 60 n mi. However, there have been no reliable reports
of winds indicating that the cyclone has reached tropical-storm
strength, and the convective cloud pattern remains ragged. Based on
these data, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt. Perhaps the most
significant finding of the aircraft is that the center was to the
east of the previous advisory position.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Just my 2 cents with so much low level cloud showing on the 91 and 85's. It looks
a precursor to a eyewall formation when this wraps.

[SoupBone]

Tropical Depression Harvey Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft suggest
that Harvey's structure has consolidated a little bit, with the
pressure falling to 1002 mb and the radius of maximum winds
shrinking to 60 n mi. However, there have been no reliable reports
of winds indicating that the cyclone has reached tropical-storm
strength, and the convective cloud pattern remains ragged. Based on
these data, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt. Perhaps the most
significant finding of the aircraft is that the center was to the
east of the previous advisory position.

Which means a potential shift in the next set of model runs.

[CycloneGuru]

Tropical Depression Harvey Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft suggest
that Harvey's structure has consolidated a little bit, with the
pressure falling to 1002 mb and the radius of maximum winds
shrinking to 60 n mi. However, there have been no reliable reports
of winds indicating that the cyclone has reached tropical-storm
strength, and the convective cloud pattern remains ragged. Based on
these data, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt. Perhaps the most
significant finding of the aircraft is that the center was to the
east of the previous advisory position.

Which means a potential shift in the next set of model runs.

Bingo

[1900hurricane]

Just for visualization, the center is about here:

[mcheer23]

Tropical Depression Harvey Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft suggest
that Harvey's structure has consolidated a little bit, with the
pressure falling to 1002 mb and the radius of maximum winds
shrinking to 60 n mi. However, there have been no reliable reports
of winds indicating that the cyclone has reached tropical-storm
strength, and the convective cloud pattern remains ragged. Based on
these data, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt. Perhaps the most
significant finding of the aircraft is that the center was to the
east of the previous advisory position.

Which means a potential shift in the next set of model runs.

Bingo

But which way

[Rgv20]

Tropical Depression Harvey Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft suggest
that Harvey's structure has consolidated a little bit, with the
pressure falling to 1002 mb and the radius of maximum winds
shrinking to 60 n mi. However, there have been no reliable reports
of winds indicating that the cyclone has reached tropical-storm
strength, and the convective cloud pattern remains ragged. Based on
these data, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt. Perhaps the most
significant finding of the aircraft is that the center was to the
east of the previous advisory position.

Which means a potential shift in the next set of model runs.

Coordinates from this morning
INIT 23/1500Z 21.5N 92.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

Latest Coordinates as of 10pm tonight
INIT 24/0300Z 21.9N 92.6W 30 KT 35 MPH

[tropicwatch]

Flip a coin.

[Hurricaneman]

Tropical Depression Harvey Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft suggest
that Harvey's structure has consolidated a little bit, with the
pressure falling to 1002 mb and the radius of maximum winds
shrinking to 60 n mi. However, there have been no reliable reports
of winds indicating that the cyclone has reached tropical-storm
strength, and the convective cloud pattern remains ragged. Based on
these data, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt. Perhaps the most
significant finding of the aircraft is that the center was to the
east of the previous advisory position.

Which means a potential shift in the next set of model runs.

Coordinates from this morning
INIT 23/1500Z 21.5N 92.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

Latest Coordinates as of 10pm tonight
INIT 24/0300Z 21.9N 92.6W 30 KT 35 MPH

So basically drifting north which is quite interesting

[Aric Dunn]

well recon is painting a good picture.. its still pretty disorganized. at least its not deepening now..

[SouthDadeFish]

Looks pretty sheared out in recent IR imagery. In fact, the low-level center might be exposed at this time. Still liking the prospects of quick intensification starting tomorrow night though.

[Steve]

Some of the NAM runs have been solid from a couple days out with the exit off the Yucatan, spin in place then consolidate idea. Yeah, it's too far south and the end games of the low rest stuff won't work out. But since it is a tropical model and too far south for it to matter, it's not done terrible. 3km looked like it was following the TVCN on Monday night, but it only runs out to 60 hours. The 12 and 32 look like a return to the Gulf via deep south TX or NE Mexico, but the 3km doesn't go out far enough to show it. Really a different setup than what we see most of the time for a threat to South Texas.

[Aric Dunn]

with the convective pattern.. a La landfall .. even eastern LA is quite possible..