ATL: HARVEY - Models

[hd44]

Euro would indicate a widearea of tornado potential as well as it merges with the mid latitude trough and maintains strong 850 flow and the mid latitude trough would add 500 mb shear.

[marionstorm]

I think I'm most confused about the Euro showing it strengthening while it's over land in Texas.

Sometimes tropical storms strengthen over land. It isn't impossible. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brown_ocean_effect

[cycloneye]

Latest guidance.

[hohnywx]

I think I'm most confused about the Euro showing it strengthening while it's over land in Texas.

Sometimes tropical storms strengthen over land. It isn't impossible. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brown_ocean_effect

How interesting...I didn't realize there was an actual name for this scenario. Thanks!

[Ivanhater]

Euro and CMC showing wild weather for the entire northern gulfcoast! wow

[Texashawk]

That would actually be a terrible scenario for Houston.

[ROCK]

Euro and CMC showing wild weather for the entire northern gulfcoast! wow

Yeah MIke hard to go against a EURO in the short range...seems it is follows the UKMET in some respects. The trend is still right and upp the TX coast and into LA....be it back over the GOM or barely inland...

[p1nheadlarry]

I think I'm most confused about the Euro showing it strengthening while it's over land in Texas.

Sometimes tropical storms strengthen over land. It isn't impossible. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brown_ocean_effect

How interesting...I didn't realize there was an actual name for this scenario. Thanks!

Neat tidbit: people generally think of Erin in Oklahoma with brown ocean, but Hurricane Andrew's peak intensity of 922 mb occurred just before it reached the Bahamas...and 922 mb again after it's landfall near Homestead, FL

[p1nheadlarry]

Euro and CMC showing wild weather for the entire northern gulfcoast! wow

Both the GFS and Euro have a potent outer band sweeping through the panhandle...I have a lot of trees in my backyard, and my house faces north...

[SouthFLTropics]

I don't think I recall ever personally seeing a model run such as today's 12z Euro where it takes a storm inland and then essentially backtracks over the original track and takes it back over water. I had to look twice to make sure I had the run looping in the correct direction.

[Rgv20]

12zECMWF Control Ensemble Run starts to move Harvey back to Deep South Texas after going as far north as San Antonio....Scary trends as most of the Computer models see some kind of stall system in the state of Texas

[Nimbus]

I don't think I recall ever personally seeing a model run such as today's 12z Euro where it takes a storm inland and then essentially backtracks over the original track and takes it back over water. I had to look twice to make sure I had the run looping in the correct direction.

Hurricane Elena made a bank shot off Florida near Tampa making landfall near Biloxi as a cat 3.
50 more miles east and it would have been inland over Tampa.
The model spread of the tracks for Harvey moving east after the stall is significant but that is better than what they had in the 1980's.

[Kingarabian]

12z EPS control is now different from the OP. Keeps it over southern Texas/northern Mexico.

[Ivanhater]

Euro and CMC showing wild weather for the entire northern gulfcoast! wow

Yeah MIke hard to go against a EURO in the short range...seems it is follows the UKMET in some respects. The trend is still right and upp the TX coast and into LA....be it back over the GOM or barely inland...

Model runs should be interesting tonight Rock!

[stormreader]

Euro and CMC showing wild weather for the entire northern gulfcoast! wow

Yeah MIke hard to go against a EURO in the short range...seems it is follows the UKMET in some respects. The trend is still right and upp the TX coast and into LA....be it back over the GOM or barely inland...

Right, I'm not sold yet on the first landfall in Texas. Don't get me wrong, it may well be in the coastal waters, maybe skirt the coast. I think that's more likely, before I think a one-time landfall in the Port Arthur-Sabine Pass border region. But the model is being awfully consistent now.

[Steve]

12z EPS control is now different from the OP. Keeps it over southern Texas/northern Mexico.

Sounds like the TVCN South Texas mentioned last night and seems as reasonable as anything else.

NAM 18Z 12km and 32km are doubling down on the North pull after looping a couple of times. But they just drag on it. I don't see it. 3km which heads for Brownsville area but doesn't run long enough. Maybe a hint or two but essentially worthless that far south.

[hd44]

Ukmet has a strong hurricane approaching Texas in 84 hrs.
https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/2017/2017082212/gfs2.2017082600.084.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.png

[stormreader]

I don't think I recall ever personally seeing a model run such as today's 12z Euro where it takes a storm inland and then essentially backtracks over the original track and takes it back over water. I had to look twice to make sure I had the run looping in the correct direction.

Can't give you specifics no, but if you look at a good book of hurricane history, you will see some incredible and unreal tracks. Often wondered how our advanced models would do with some of those kinds of storms. Maybe the Euro has this one sniffed out. Let's see.

[wicked_wx_watcher]

EURO 12z SW LA

Very reasonable. I still favor slightly west of that run, more like Port Arthur or Sabine Pass at the Tex-La border. But splitting hairs here, that's very close.

Of course, big difference is that this is a second landfall, with first being on Texas coast.

In case some can't read it on their phone, this is Wednesday Aug 30 7:00 am

[stormreader]

Ukmet has a strong hurricane approaching Texas in 84 hrs.
https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/2017/2017082212/gfs2.2017082600.084.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.png

This UK is closer to my thinking. Not so much with the going in and then backing out like the Euro. But a track to the right of the Euro coming up beneath Galvestion and then a nudge east toward Port Arthur area.