ATL: MARIA - Models

[seahawkjd]

Ever so slight east shift on 06z GFS, but basically same as 00, sitting (stalling) right off obx.

it shifted south, not east. That's why the Outer Banks don't get hit hard this run

Also, this could easily end up missing Jose's cold wake

So what is it looking like now for ENC?

[GCANE]

There are a couple secondary effects that are not programmed into the models that could likely make this a CONUS landfall at a higher intensity.

[tolakram]

As of the 0Z run it looks to stay far enough offshore that rain is not a big issue.

[tolakram]

[Alyono]

HMON just made a 3 degree east shift. The hurricane models are not buying into the west shift

[tolakram]

Winds and wind gusts. Note some significant gusts in the Wilmington area, not to mention the Outer Banks.





source: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/737-w-373-n/gusts-3h-mph/20170928-1800z.html

[Vdogg]

HMON just made a 3 degree east shift. The hurricane models are not buying into the west shift

3 degrees is a pretty big shift. How accurate is the HMON with these storms?

[GCANE]

HMON just made a 3 degree east shift. The hurricane models are not buying into the west shift

3 degrees is a pretty big shift. How accurate is the HMON with these storms?

HMON is within 100 nm out to 5 days.

[GCANE]

HMN2 has been the best performer for Maria, within 50nm.

I can't find forecast track for HMN2, but here they are for HMNI and HMON.

[NDG]

A closer look at last night's Euro Ensembles.

[ronjon]

HMON just made a 3 degree east shift. The hurricane models are not buying into the west shift

3 degrees is a pretty big shift. How accurate is the HMON with these storms?

Not very. Big run-to-run inconsistency compared to ECM and GFS. Its sister model HWRF is better.

[Vdogg]

HMN2 has been the best performer for Maria, within 50nm.

I can't find forecast track for HMN2, but here they are for HMNI and HMON.

Seems like there'd still be some pretty significant effects with a track that close to the coast.

[Vdogg]

How do you post a forecast gif from tropical tidbits? Can't seem to get it to take on here.

[Vdogg]

A closer look at last night's Euro Ensembles.

That's a very uncomfortable number of members going into NC. Some tracks look similar to Isabel.

[meriland29]

Does anyone have a map of the current water temps in that area?

[Vdogg]

Does anyone have a map of the current water temps in that area?

There's one posted up thread about 2 pages back IIRC.

[NDG]

Does anyone have a map of the current water temps in that area?

It will be in very warm waters if it tracks closer to the gulf stream, if it tracks east of 74 W much cooler waters.

[Alyono]

aircraft data indicates this may be down to a low to mid range cat 2 now

[Vdogg]

aircraft data indicates this may be down to a low to mid range cat 2 now

That surprised me considering how the eye closed in. Is it going through an EWRC?

[stormreader]

A closer look at last night's Euro Ensembles.

Its the more westerly of the ensemble runs that I find interesting. That's because not only do they show that close approach to the coast of NC, but they also show a little more direct west push right onto the coast before the trough comes in to take the storm out to sea. Most of the ensemble simply shows a generally N move, then the trough comes to push NE. Will check forward speed and timing of Maria approach. If Maria makes its approach a little more quickly, then I think she is more susceptible to the little west push onto E N Carolina (and spending some significant time on the coast there). My best guess right now, is that those more westerly tracks are probably onto the correct solution. The High pressure further north will have built in enough to give the storm that push onto the coast. So I think a NC landfall just south of Cape Hatteras would be my call right now. Just north of Morehead City, but south of Hatteras.
Not as sure about NC geography---but right around Atlantic NC for best guess for landfall.