ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SoupBone]

with the convective pattern.. a La landfall .. even eastern LA is quite possible..

Not a first landfall, you're meaning a second, or even third right?

[BRweather]

Looks like on IR a huge burst of convection is sinking towards the center.

[Aric Dunn]

with the convective pattern.. a La landfall .. even eastern LA is quite possible..

Not a first landfall, you're meaning a second, or even third right?

nope....

[AxaltaRacing24]

This reminds me of Matthew about 12-24 hours before it blew up.

[drezee]

It will be hard for the center to not get sucked N by that tower...

[Alyono]

I'd like to know how NHC has determined that this is CURRENTLY in a low shear environment (aside from SHIPS output). It's clear that this has decent shear right now, though the shear should decrease tomorrow

[tarheelprogrammer]

I think I am seeing a center in the area I put an X on. Anyone else seeing this?

[Alyono]

I think I am seeing a center in the area I put an X on. Anyone else seeing this?

it's exposed to the SW of the convection

[jasons2k]

I'm a bit surprised by the shift in the track. When you still have shear, always err to the right, especially after just a single model suite...plus you always wait for the 0Z.

[Steve]

with the convective pattern.. a La landfall .. even eastern LA is quite possible..

Not a first landfall, you're meaning a second, or even third right?

nope....

Yo Aric, you know dynamics a ton better than I do. But near term impacts I see from the pattern are more or less outflow and wrap around stuff. On the one hand, it hasn't felt like August much the last few days. It's different out. But it's lower to mid level stuff here - maybe strato-cumulus? I think the front coming down with the high behind it will prevent that scenario for now. I'm not saying 4-5-6 days down the road, things couldn't be different. But when you look how the flow is (there's a bad photo toward the end), the window to get up this way would close after Friday. And I don't think it would come up this way that fast.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/wv-animated.gif

[Steve]

I'm a bit surprised by the shift in the track. When you still have shear, always err to the right, especially after just a single model suite...plus you always wait for the 0Z.

I don't know, but I think it's decent. This type of track has been on the table for a while and makes sense.

[BRweather]

Recon confirming that the big burst of convection and the center are being intertwined quickly now.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I'm a bit surprised by the shift in the track. When you still have shear, always err to the right, especially after just a single model suite...plus you always wait for the 0Z.

What makes the 0z different?


Looking at the IR, def feel like the center moved northward under the convection....

[pcolaman]

Well my thoughts are Recon found said center well to the east of the track currently set. With that being said we shall see the cone shift to the east in the next few advisories. Has more of a northward component to the storm at the present according to track. So we shall see what unfolds in the next day or two.

[MississippiWx]

New GFS coming in much stronger so far..

[NDG]

Recon finally finding some stronger winds on the NE quadrant.

032730 2229N 09208W 9248 00725 0042 +222 +208 152041 043 029 002 00

[drewschmaltz]

I don't like the way this is setting up...

[pcolaman]

So the models show stronger storm. So wouldn't it be reasonable to think more of a northward component?

[MississippiWx]

45-50kt flight level winds being recorded now in the intense convection. Harvey is once again a TS.

[Alyono]

45-50kt flight level winds being recorded now in the intense convection. Harvey is once again a TS.

NO SFMR winds of TS force