ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I think Harvey is ready to go now. The ULL near the LA coastline is basically nonexistence. Here we go.

[Aric Dunn]

Not a first landfall, you're meaning a second, or even third right?

nope....

Yo Aric, you know dynamics a ton better than I do. But near term impacts I see from the pattern are more or less outflow and wrap around stuff. On the one hand, it hasn't felt like August much the last few days. It's different out. But it's lower to mid level stuff here - maybe strato-cumulus? I think the front coming down with the high behind it will prevent that scenario for now. I'm not saying 4-5-6 days down the road, things couldn't be different. But when you look how the flow is (there's a bad photo toward the end), the window to get up this way would close after Friday. And I don't think it would come up this way that fast.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/wv-animated.gif

Convection drives nearly everything... everything follows the path of least resistance. the trend will continue easterly..

[MississippiWx]

So the models show stronger storm. So wouldn't it be reasonable to think more of a northward component?

Maybe slightly, but it won't change the fact that a ridge is sitting over Florida keeping Harvey bound for Texas initially.

[Ptarmigan]

Harvey is a real pain to forecast.

[MississippiWx]

45-50kt flight level winds being recorded now in the intense convection. Harvey is once again a TS.

NO SFMR winds of TS force

Yes, but they will soon translate to surface. Convection is too intense not to.

[Aric Dunn]

45-50kt flight level winds being recorded now in the intense convection. Harvey is once again a TS.

NO SFMR winds of TS force

SFMR is not needed.. it has it many issues. they will do a blend..

[AxaltaRacing24]

45-50kt flight level winds being recorded now in the intense convection. Harvey is once again a TS.

NO SFMR winds of TS force

SFMR is not needed.. it has it many issues. they will do a blend..

There is no way they aren't going to upgrade this. There is enough evidence.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The Plane took a jog to the north, CoC change?

[SoupBone]

nope....

Yo Aric, you know dynamics a ton better than I do. But near term impacts I see from the pattern are more or less outflow and wrap around stuff. On the one hand, it hasn't felt like August much the last few days. It's different out. But it's lower to mid level stuff here - maybe strato-cumulus? I think the front coming down with the high behind it will prevent that scenario for now. I'm not saying 4-5-6 days down the road, things couldn't be different. But when you look how the flow is (there's a bad photo toward the end), the window to get up this way would close after Friday. And I don't think it would come up this way that fast.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/wv-animated.gif

Convection drives nearly everything... everything follows the path of least resistance. the trend will continue easterly..

Come on mannnnnn, I've been reading your posts for years. You can't leave it open ended like this. You're thinking a first landfall in Louisiana is a possibility?

[NDG]

Tropical Storm Harvey?

034500 2304N 09126W 9252 00737 0061 +220 +193 143052 052 038 001 00
034530 2305N 09125W 9252 00737 0063 +217 +194 142052 053 031 003 00
034600 2306N 09124W 9250 00738 0064 +213 +195 139050 051 035 003 00
034630 2307N 09123W 9254 00734 0064 +215 +195 139053 056 033 003 00
034700 2308N 09122W 9250 00738 0062 +216 +195 140056 057 037 008 00
034730 2309N 09121W 9248 00740 0062 +220 +193 140056 057 038 008 00
$$

[Aric Dunn]

funny thing about SMFR vs flight level... despite a upgrade to TS or to Hurricane or to major or to cat 5.. sfmr never delivers. .. flight level winds of cat 5 may never show on sfmr.. however.. all it takes is that one moment that flight level translates to the surface ansd someone dies.. SFMR is very flaud..

[CrazyC83]

Tropical Storm Harvey?

034500 2304N 09126W 9252 00737 0061 +220 +193 143052 052 038 001 00
034530 2305N 09125W 9252 00737 0063 +217 +194 142052 053 031 003 00
034600 2306N 09124W 9250 00738 0064 +213 +195 139050 051 035 003 00
034630 2307N 09123W 9254 00734 0064 +215 +195 139053 056 033 003 00
034700 2308N 09122W 9250 00738 0062 +216 +195 140056 057 037 008 00
034730 2309N 09121W 9248 00740 0062 +220 +193 140056 057 038 008 00
$$

Can't be disputed there. Both SFMR and FL winds support such.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I still dont fully understand the shift westward. I see the High reaching/pushing in the last run, but not this one, yet it moves west directly into the western ridge.

[Steve]

nope....

Yo Aric, you know dynamics a ton better than I do. But near term impacts I see from the pattern are more or less outflow and wrap around stuff. On the one hand, it hasn't felt like August much the last few days. It's different out. But it's lower to mid level stuff here - maybe strato-cumulus? I think the front coming down with the high behind it will prevent that scenario for now. I'm not saying 4-5-6 days down the road, things couldn't be different. But when you look how the flow is (there's a bad photo toward the end), the window to get up this way would close after Friday. And I don't think it would come up this way that fast.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/wv-animated.gif

Convection drives nearly everything... everything follows the path of least resistance. the trend will continue easterly..

Surprising with the upper flow across the US. I don't see it particularly after tomorrow. If it was up at like 27N or if it stalled off of Brownsville and South Padre, I'd maybe buy in. Nuts few days ahead regardless.

[Alyono]

45-50kt flight level winds being recorded now in the intense convection. Harvey is once again a TS.

NO SFMR winds of TS force

SFMR is not needed.. it has it many issues. they will do a blend..

just no. SFMR trumps FL winds. It's well known now when the data is reliable and those data were reliable

[Alyono]

just saw the new data, this is beyond a resonable doubt that this is a TS

[davidiowx]

Even though models have had about what? 8-10 hours of consensus (that's not saying much). It's still dumping A LOT of rain across South Central and South East Texas..

[Aric Dunn]

Yo Aric, you know dynamics a ton better than I do. But near term impacts I see from the pattern are more or less outflow and wrap around stuff. On the one hand, it hasn't felt like August much the last few days. It's different out. But it's lower to mid level stuff here - maybe strato-cumulus? I think the front coming down with the high behind it will prevent that scenario for now. I'm not saying 4-5-6 days down the road, things couldn't be different. But when you look how the flow is (there's a bad photo toward the end), the window to get up this way would close after Friday. And I don't think it would come up this way that fast.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/wv-animated.gif

Convection drives nearly everything... everything follows the path of least resistance. the trend will continue easterly..

Come on mannnnnn, I've been reading your posts for years. You can't leave it open ended like this. You're thinking a first landfall in Louisiana is a possibility?

it was not open ended.. just follow the the convective pattern. its likely going to miss the slight building of the ridge do to inner dynamics and might not ever landfall in texas.

[Aric Dunn]

NO SFMR winds of TS force

SFMR is not needed.. it has it many issues. they will do a blend..

just no. SFMR trumps FL winds. It's well known now when the data is reliable and those data were reliable

show me the statistics? system relative ? lol not going to happen. its great concept and is helpful and the NHC ALWAYS WILL DO A BLEND ..

[CrazyC83]

Last pass of data in the rainband had 64 kt FL (supports 48 kt) and 50 kt SFMR, but they may be contaminated by rain.