ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[znel52]

919.6mb extrapolated. Almost 160kts flight level winds. Looks to be a little bit stronger.

[FLpanhandle91]

324096 097 088 012 00
174930 1631N 06342W 6978 02760 9575 +138 +137 327102 106 099 027 00
175000 1632N 06340W 6961 02702 9456 +177 +126 327115 120 104 041 03
175030 1633N 06339W 6978 02581 9410 +140 //// 329116 124 122 045 01
175100 1634N 06339W 6940 02558 9306 +159 +155 335085 109 121 044 03
175130 1634N 06337W 6962 02485 9231 +174 +154 339031 065 050 002 00
175200 1635N 06335W 6987 02441 9218 +176 +149 106002 018 048 002 00
175230 1636N 06334W 7026 02384 9199 +191 +137 125017 023 043 002 03
175300 1637N 06333W 6875 02555 9196 +181 +124 131034 043 /// /// 03
175330 1639N 06332W 6860 02616 9239 +165 +132 136072 094 /// /// 03
175400 1641N 06331W 6936 02608 9398 +137 //// 134138 153 145 039 01
175430 1642N 06330W 6961 02705 9530 +133 +133 128143 153 138 027 00
175500 1644N 06329W 6984 02749 9613 +128 //// 129128 140 120 030 05
175530 1645N 06328W 6978 02803 9653 +125 //// 131119 124 105 010 05

[dukeblue219]

A couple of flight level gusts to 153 knots too. Definitely looks like she's added a bit of strength in the last few hours. Curious to see what the eyewall sonde reveals....

[Aric Dunn]

Dopsonde winds should be interesting in the eyewall

[Michele B]

Got to say, it's pretty quiet here considering we have a category 5 hurricane on its way to hit Puerto Rico tomorrow...

Yeah.. it's weird.

This is how's come so many lost their lives in the Okeechobee hurricane in '28, I think? And '35 in the keys.

THere's a false sense of calm, weather seems "normal," and it's hard to imagine a devastating hurricane is just hours away....

[Hugo1989]

As ugly these houses they may seem to some these reinforced concrete walls & roof homes will probably the only ones that would be left with a roof if Maria remains a Cat 5 as it tracks over St Croix and P.R.
I just talked to my next door neighbor whose mother lives in the town of Fajardo in the eastern side of the Island, I feel better now that he told me her house is similar to one of these.

Most of the houses in PR are build in concrete with very few of these are poorly built in woods and zinc. Those people who are still living in this type of properties were evacuated to shelters or to stay with relatives. I been for Hugo and Georges and now for Irma in Florida and I can't compare the feeling how people's in both side get prepared for a hurricane event.

[Aric Dunn]

double wind maximum showing up nicely now.. over time that outer will grow and the inner will weaken.

[tropicwatch]

NHC stayed with 927mb and 160mph. Did they post before recon data?

[dukeblue219]

NHC stayed with 927mb and 160mph. Did they post before recon data?

I believe so. It was already there when I switched over and they're usually not instantaneous on new data (they'd rather issue additional updates if it's major changes I think).

[JBCycloneStan]

double wind maximum showing up nicely now.. over time that outer will grow and the inner will weaken.

Hopefully, this ERC leads to weakening right before landfall...

[dukeblue219]

Dropsonde data is in, dropped in the SW eyewall. Splashed at 932mb/96 knots. Waiting to see if they tossed one out on the north side where they had the big SFMR winds.

[SouthDadeFish]

ERC may not be a good thing. If winds slightly decrease but spread out over a larger area, the total destruction will likely be greater.

[RL3AO]

ERC may not be a good thing. If winds slightly decrease but spread out over a larger area, the total destruction will likely be greater.

Yep. Quadrupling the area that gets cat 3 winds vs a smaller area of cat 4/5 is probably worse overall.

[chaser1]

Got to say, it's pretty quiet here considering we have a category 5 hurricane on its way to hit Puerto Rico tomorrow...

Funny but true. I for one (and like thousands of others) are still in clean up mode from Irma. That aside though, I've lately chosen to sit back and just Maria in awe. Its just miserable how pummelled the Islands are getting this year. Then I recall my chasing Hugo in Luquillo and the absolute battering that N.E. Puerto Rico took from that storm. Hard to visualize a far more direct hit on the Island but with a distinctly more powerful hurricane than that! In addition to that, i'm just worriedly anticipating future EURO members to begin nudging Maria's downstream track more to the west in response to a building mid level Great Lakes High. I'm still pretty convinced that Maria will be a U.S. problem as well.

[GCANE]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)

A. Time of Center Fix: 19th day of the month at 17:52:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°35'N 63°36'W (16.5833N 63.6W)

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 122kts (~ 140.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 4 nautical miles (5 statute miles) to the WSW (239°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 329° at 124kts (From the NNW at ~ 142.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 4 nautical miles (5 statute miles) to the WSW (239°) of center fix

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 920mb (27.17 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,035m (9,957ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,981m (9,780ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 14°C (57°F)

L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 5 nautical miles


Remarks Section:
Maximum Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 153kts (~ 176.1mph) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the NE (40°) from the flight level center at 17:54:00Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 245° at 6kts (From the WSW at 7mph)

[NotoSans]

Looks like a 920mb/145kt hurricane as per latest recon. Eye has shrunk into 5nm in diameter.

[GCANE]

[Dave C]

They have upped it to 165 mph 2:15 pm pressure 920

[crm6360]

I noticed San Juan has some high rises near the coast. Just curious if those types of structures (there or anywhere) have ever experienced Cat 5 winds? I remember the infamous NWS bulletin for Katrina warning that "a few high rises may sway dangerously, a few to the point of total collapse." That wording always seemed a bit extreme and I question the engineering fact-checking behind that statement.

[chaser1]

visible loop

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-abi?satellite=GOESEastfullDiskband02&lat=17&lon=-65&width=1400&height=900&zoom=2&type=Animation&numframes=15&quality=90

Just AMAZING to watch! From a technical perspective, the clarity and resolution has really come soooo far! It's amazing to think back to the day where myself and others huddled in the NHC Satellite room waiting for the following updated thick glossy satellite snap-shot photo to come off the press LOL! Good 'ol Stan was a really patient man ~~~~~~~~ ah, the good 'ol days.