ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

It deserves an upgrade, just by the flight level winds.

034800 2310N 09119W 9256 00734 0065 +215 +194 138055 056 038 013 00
034830 2311N 09118W 9248 00741 0064 +215 +193 141056 056 037 010 00
034900 2312N 09117W 9248 00741 0065 +212 +190 141057 058 038 005 00
034930 2313N 09116W 9249 00739 0066 +208 +188 140057 058 040 010 00
035000 2314N 09115W 9247 00741 0072 +188 +185 141057 058 044 028 00
035030 2315N 09113W 9250 00737 0075 +180 +180 139058 059 048 067 00
035100 2316N 09112W 9250 00742 0078 +178 +178 139059 060 050 069 03
035130 2317N 09111W 9252 00742 0082 +177 +177 139059 062 /// /// 03
035200 2318N 09111W 9244 00754 0083 +183 +155 137049 064 /// /// 05
035230 2319N 09112W 9242 00756 0082 +187 +114 128048 055 /// /// 03
035300 2319N 09114W 9265 00727 0083 +170 +124 135058 060 050 059 00
035330 2319N 09116W 9241 00749 0081 +170 +156 133058 061 048 055 03
035400 2319N 09118W 9248 00743 0079 +173 +171 133056 060 050 046 00
035430 2319N 09120W 9255 00738 0078 +181 +175 133054 056 045 024 00
035500 2319N 09122W 9252 00740 0074 +200 +080 136053 055 041 024 00
035530 2319N 09122W 9252 00740 0073 +204 +057 137054 055 038 017 00
035600 2319N 09122W 9252 00740 0073 +204 +057 137054 055 038 017 00
035630 2319N 09122W 9252 00740 0073 +204 +057 137054 055 038 017 00

[NDG]

Last pass of data in the rainband had 64 kt FL (supports 48 kt) and 50 kt SFMR, but they may be contaminated by rain.

I don't believe flight level winds get contaminated by heavy rains, only SFMR.

[Aric Dunn]

well good night all... the system needs some more time to organize. expect some more northerly trends.

[Hammy]

Data supports upgrade at 2am, probably 40-45kt.

it was not open ended.. just follow the the convective pattern. its likely going to miss the slight building of the ridge do to inner dynamics and might not ever landfall in texas.

Would Jerry in 1989 (or slightly east) be a good general analog of your track thinking, at least up to landfall?

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

Consider it done !!!
Tropical Storm Harvey Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1100 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...

An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft just measured
tropical storm force winds in Harvey. The maximum winds are
estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM CDT...0400 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 92.6W
ABOUT 500 MI...810 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM SE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Avila/Zelinsky

[hd44]

I went strong ts by 8am... looks like that may occur. 65 kt flight level wind found wow ..

[Alyono]

wasn't expecting these winds.

I would like to confirm the AF winds with the NOAA plane just to make sure they are not due to a transient feature before I'd raise them to 50 kts

[djones65]

NHC officially upgraded to tropical storm in a TC Update statement

[AxaltaRacing24]

This is organizing faster than I thought.

[hd44]

40 kt find that is non contaminated. This should be around 45 mph

[CrazyC83]

000
WTNT64 KNHC 240403
TCUAT4

Tropical Storm Harvey Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1100 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...

An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft just measured
tropical storm force winds in Harvey. The maximum winds are
estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM CDT...0400 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 92.6W
ABOUT 500 MI...810 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM SE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Avila/Zelinsky

[ScottNAtlanta]

wasn't expecting these winds.

I would like to confirm the AF winds with the NOAA plane just to make sure they are not due to a transient feature before I'd raise them to 50 kts

Arent these winds in the area that just saw the convection pop?

[wxmann_91]

funny thing about SMFR vs flight level... despite a upgrade to TS or to Hurricane or to major or to cat 5.. sfmr never delivers. .. flight level winds of cat 5 may never show on sfmr.. however.. all it takes is that one moment that flight level translates to the surface ansd someone dies.. SFMR is very flaud..

What. SFMR has showed surface winds can be near or stronger than FL winds in rapidly intensifying high-end hurricanes -- Felix in 2007, Patricia in 2015, Matthew in 2016 just to name a few -- where strong convective elements transfer momentum aloft completely down to the surface.

Do you know how SFMR works?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Tropical Storm Harvey?

034500 2304N 09126W 9252 00737 0061 +220 +193 143052 052 038 001 00
034530 2305N 09125W 9252 00737 0063 +217 +194 142052 053 031 003 00
034600 2306N 09124W 9250 00738 0064 +213 +195 139050 051 035 003 00
034630 2307N 09123W 9254 00734 0064 +215 +195 139053 056 033 003 00
034700 2308N 09122W 9250 00738 0062 +216 +195 140056 057 037 008 00
034730 2309N 09121W 9248 00740 0062 +220 +193 140056 057 038 008 00
$$

Translation?

[djones65]

TeamPlayerBlue : these are the recon reports.
The first set of numbers is the Time in UTC including seconds So 034500 is 03hours 45minutes 00seconds
The second set is Latitude in Degrees and Minutes so 2304 is 23 Degrees 04 minutes North
Next set is Longitude so 9126 is 91 degrees 26 minutes West which is position of the aircraft at that time
Next set is the Pressure Level aircraft is flying in MB so 9252 is 925.2 mb pressure level.
Next set is the aircraft altitude relative to Earth surface or sea level which is 737 meters
Next set is extrapolated surface pressure which was 0061 which is 1006.1 mb
Next set is air temperature is degrees Celsius so +220 is 22.0 C
Next set is dew point temperature so +193 is 19.3 C
Next set is flight level winds averaged over 30 seconds so 143052 stands for 143 degree wind direction at 52 knots
Next set is peak flight level wind of 10 second duration. It says 052 therefore peak flight lvl wind was 52 knots also.
Next set is Estimated Surface winds from the SFMR instrument Which was 038 or 38 knots.
Next set is estimated rainfall rate in Mm/hr which in this case is 01 or very light precipitation.
Last set is a automated indicator whether any of the data is possibly suspect. 00 means its good. (Anything else suggests may not be valid)

I hope that helps you.

[latitude_20]

Looking like a Tropical Storm has been discovered.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

TeamPlayerBlue : these are the recon reports.
The first set of numbers is the Time in UTC including seconds So 034500 is 03hours 45minutes 00seconds
The second set is Latitude in Degrees and Minutes so 2304 is 23 Degrees 04 minutes North
Next set is Longitude so 9126 is 91 degrees 26 minutes West which is position of the aircraft at that time
Next set is the Pressure Level aircraft is flying in MB so 9252 is 925.2 mb pressure level.
Next set is the aircraft altitude relative to Earth surface or sea level which is 737 meters
Next set is extrapolated surface pressure which was 0061 which is 1006.1 mb
Next set is air temperature is degrees Celsius so +220 is 22.0 C
Next set is dew point temperature so +193 is 19.3 C
Next set is flight level winds averaged over 30 seconds so 143052 stands for 143 degree wind direction at 52 knots
Next set is peak flight level wind of 10 second duration. It says 052 therefore peak flight lvl wind was 52 knots also.
Next set is Estimated Surface winds from the SFMR instrument Which was 038 or 38 knots.
Next set is estimated rainfall rate in Mm/hr which in this case is 01 or very light precipitation.
Last set is a automated indicator whether any of the data is possibly suspect. 00 means its good. (Anything else suggests may not be valid)

I hope that helps you.

Excellent, thank you sir!

[Alyono]

the RMW is unusually large. Looks to be about 80 nm

[ConvergenceZone]

I think the fact that since this has ALREADY become a tropical storm, increases the likelihood that this will be a hurricane by landfall. I didn't think this would reach tropical storm status until late tomorrow morning

[lester]

Looking like a Tropical Storm has been discovered.

It's been a Tropical Storm for 40 minutes :p