ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[txwatcher91]

ERC may not be a good thing. If winds slightly decrease but spread out over a larger area, the total destruction will likely be greater.

Yep. Quadrupling the area that gets cat 3 winds vs a smaller area of cat 4/5 is probably worse overall.

Not to mention if it's a fast EWRC and it completes before reaching land it will have time to tighten up the new eye and be strengthening as it moves that way. No matter how you slice it... this is a really bad situation for PR and the US Virgin Islands.

[SunnyThoughts]

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT MARIA HAS STRENGTHENED...

Recent reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Maria has strengthened above the intensity in the
2 PM AST advisory, with estimated maximum sustained winds of 165 mph
(265 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 215PM AST...1815 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 63.6W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SE OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM W OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...265 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...920 MB...27.17 INCHES

[terstorm1012]

I noticed San Juan has some high rises near the coast. Just curious if those types of structures (there or anywhere) have ever experienced Cat 5 winds?

maybe dadeland did in Andrew? Can't remember how many of those highrises were there then.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/910208325886689280




Philip Klotzbach ✔ @philklotzbach
#Maria's pressure now 920mb - 5 other <= 920mb Atl TCs since satellites (>=1966) this late in calendar yr: Gloria, Opal, Mitch, Rita, Wilma
2:25 PM - Sep 19, 2017

[dukeblue219]

Shoot, just noticed the second dropsonde (NW quad) stopped reporting after the 861mb level after peaking at 165 knots.

[plasticup]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/910208325886689280




Philip Klotzbach ✔ @philklotzbach
#Maria's pressure now 920mb - 5 other <= 920mb Atl TCs since satellites (>=1966) this late in calendar yr: Gloria, Opal, Mitch, Rita, Wilma
2:25 PM - Sep 19, 2017

Is this actually late in the year? Mid-September is the peak. Top 10 most Intense of all Time:

Wilma, late Oct
Gilbert, mid Sept
Labor Day, early Sept
Rita, late Sept
Allen, early Aug
Camille, mid Aug
Katrina, late Aug
Mitch, late Oct
Dean, mid Aug
Cuba, mid Oct
Ivan, mid Sept

[Craters]

200 frame visible. The darn eye continues to shrink.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso2-02-200-1-100

My God. Look at those mesovortices whipping around inside the eye like a bunch of demons dancing around their next victim.

Unbelievable.

[supercane4867]

A 5nm eye is a pretty tiny for her circulation size. It's impressive that Maria can maintain the small eye for such a long time, perhaps due to interaction with Dominica.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/910208443386036226

[MGC]

Outer eyewall is becoming quite evident on San Juan long range radar. Sadly, I think the EWRC should be finished and Maria will likely be intensifying again as the hurricane approaches Puerto Rico. Everyone in PR and VI stay safe.....MGC

[eastcoastFL]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/910208325886689280




Philip Klotzbach ✔ @philklotzbach
#Maria's pressure now 920mb - 5 other <= 920mb Atl TCs since satellites (>=1966) this late in calendar yr: Gloria, Opal, Mitch, Rita, Wilma
2:25 PM - Sep 19, 2017

Is this actually late in the year? Mid-September is the peak. Top 10 most Intense of all Time:

Wilma, late Oct
Gilbert, mid Sept
Labor Day, early Sept
Rita, late Sept
Allen, early Aug
Camille, mid Aug
Katrina, late Aug
Mitch, late Oct
Dean, mid Aug
Cuba, mid Oct
Ivan, mid Sept

Im not sure about all but most of those are Caribbean or Gulf storms. I think hes talking about the Atlantic

[CrazyC83]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/910208325886689280




Philip Klotzbach ✔ @philklotzbach
#Maria's pressure now 920mb - 5 other <= 920mb Atl TCs since satellites (>=1966) this late in calendar yr: Gloria, Opal, Mitch, Rita, Wilma
2:25 PM - Sep 19, 2017

Is this actually late in the year? Mid-September is the peak. Top 10 most Intense of all Time:

Wilma, late Oct
Gilbert, mid Sept
Labor Day, early Sept
Rita, late Sept
Allen, early Aug
Camille, mid Aug
Katrina, late Aug
Mitch, late Oct
Dean, mid Aug
Cuba, mid Oct
Ivan, mid Sept

Im not sure about all but most of those are Caribbean or Gulf storms. I think hes talking about the Atlantic

Opal and Rita were in the Gulf while Mitch and Wilma were in the western Caribbean. It's not too common to get a cat 5 east of 70°W as it is.

[plasticup]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/910208325886689280




Philip Klotzbach ✔ @philklotzbach
#Maria's pressure now 920mb - 5 other <= 920mb Atl TCs since satellites (>=1966) this late in calendar yr: Gloria, Opal, Mitch, Rita, Wilma
2:25 PM - Sep 19, 2017

Is this actually late in the year? Mid-September is the peak. Top 10 most Intense of all Time:

Wilma, late Oct
Gilbert, mid Sept
Labor Day, early Sept
Rita, late Sept
Allen, early Aug
Camille, mid Aug
Katrina, late Aug
Mitch, late Oct
Dean, mid Aug
Cuba, mid Oct
Ivan, mid Sept

Im not sure about all but most of those are Caribbean or Gulf storms. I think hes talking about the Atlantic

Maria is in the Caribbean...

[Raebie]

Winds really picking up in St. Croix on Earth Cam.

[gatorcane]

Good luck those in Puerto Rico and surrounding islands who will be impacted by Maria. Cycloneye and others, please check in with us as soon as the storm passes so we know you are OK. Saved VIS loop as Maria aims at Puerto Rico:

[chaser1]

Shoot, just noticed the second dropsonde (NW quad) stopped reporting after the 861mb level after peaking at 165 knots.

Gonna need a bigger weight on that down-rigger

[chaser1]

200 frame visible. The darn eye continues to shrink.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso2-02-200-1-100

My God. Look at those mesovortices whipping around inside the eye like a bunch of demons dancing around their next victim.

Unbelievable.

Interesting arc clouds flying from the outflow north of Puerto Rico

[chaser1]

Winds really picking up in St. Croix on Earth Cam.

Do you have a link?

[znel52]

200 frame visible. The darn eye continues to shrink.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso2-02-200-1-100

My God. Look at those mesovortices whipping around inside the eye like a bunch of demons dancing around their next victim.

Unbelievable.

Interesting arc clouds flying from the outflow north of Puerto Rico

Looks like it barfed out some outflow boundaries not sure if that's what they are though. It did this earlier in its life in generally the same part of the storm. Didn't seem to have any impacts on intensity though.

[GCANE]

Last recon pass showed 45 mm/hr rain rate in eyewall.
Definitely getting choked off.
EWRC started just after sunrise this morning by the convective burst in the SW quad along the same axis as the eyewall convective burst.