ATL: CINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[srainhoutx]

07Z NWS/NHC Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch suggests the parent low will be in the Western Gulf in 72 Hours generally heading toward the NE Mexico/S Texas Coast.

[gatorcane]

https://s10.postimg.org/cri5wpa15/wv-animated_1.gif

So far it looks like the GFS was on the right track.

To be honest, it is hard to see how this can move into the BOC or Western GOM looking at the trough over the NW Gulf. Not one GFS ensemble takes this anywhere close to the Western GOM any longer. Now maybe that trough will get replaced by a ridge in few days.

[GCANE]

GOM Dry Slot is definitely filling in with moisture.

Animation of GOES16 6.95 micro-meter imager (Band 9)
6.50 to 7.00 um works well for moisture.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/b ... 0(Band%209)&time_drop=show

[GCANE]

[stormreader]

I think any type of right bending motion as it approaches Northern Gulf Coast would be very unusual for a June storm. So if short term motion brings storm into W Gom, then I have to give greater credence to the Euro solution of upper Texas coast. South Texas to Sabine River (La-Tex border okay). But any move back further east after making a push across Yucatan I would find less likely. Euro seems more logical.

[1900hurricane]

I grabbed some 12Z soundings from Belize and the Yucatan. The Belize sounding showed a saturated airmass with light winds throughout the column. Nebulous low level winds don't speak much for organization, but the light winds aloft show that the heart of the system isn't dealing with shear currently. However, the Yucatan sounding to the north did begin to sample the subtropical jet with 35-45 kt southwesterlies in the upper levels. LCL-EL shear here is 57 kt.

[Javlin]

If you look at the surface on the RGB loop you can see something being drawn E to the main convection.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[gatorcane]

The GFS has been ever so slightly shifting east each run since 12Z yesterday. No GFS ensembles go into the Western Gulf any longer, they are tightly clustered into the Florida panhandle.

[stormreader]

Still early, but I'm a little more concerned now with intensity. Talking about Euro-W Gom solution. Earlier those runs featured a very minimal tropical storm. Seems like later runs calling for something more significant. Believe I saw a Cat 1 projection near Houston. Cat 1 would be manageable, but the forecast is hinting at greater strength now. Even in June you can in special circumstances get something stronger. At this stage, I'm not giving a lot of credence to the GFS eastern solution which has already been forecasting a Cat 1 off Fl.

[boca]

It will be interesting to see which model will be correct with 93L.

[stormreader]

The GFS has been ever so slightly shifting east each run since 12Z yesterday. No GFS ensembles go into the Western Gulf any longer, they are tightly clustered into the Florida panhandle.

Well, if GFS-Fl landfall pans out (and its holding steady in outright defiance of the Euro), then it will obviously be a huge early season won for that model. But you have to forgive me for being skeptical at this time.

[tolakram]

I'm not seeing anything except some sort of MLC and a broad circulation near the coast.

http://i.imgur.com/jPcQRCX.gif

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro Parallel very similar to the operational run, just more SW, with landfall over the central Texas coast and a lot weaker @ 1005mb.

[Steve]

The GFS has been ever so slightly shifting east each run since 12Z yesterday. No GFS ensembles go into the Western Gulf any longer, they are tightly clustered into the Florida panhandle.

Well, if GFS-Fl landfall pans out (and its holding steady in outright defiance of the Euro), then it will obviously be a huge early season won for that model. But you have to forgive me for being skeptical at this time.

I'm going to disagree. It was buried in the BoC, hitting farther south in FL, Texas and Alabama. It hasn't shown any consistency. It was the Canadian from Tuesday until yesterday that the hit was between Gulf and Santa Rosa Counties. It's pulled a bit to the west since. Now if GFS stays where it is for several runs and ends up being right, it would have gotten the end game right later in the game. I'm not impressed with it at all anymore, and the replacement can't come soon enough with the way it's 5 Day skill scores have been going. NAM 32z is out to 48 and apparently heading toward Texas.

[GeneratorPower]

I'm not seeing anything except some sort of MLC and a broad circulation near the coast.

http://i.imgur.com/jPcQRCX.gif

I'd be surprised if recon goes today.

[RL3AO]

While I understand there is some frustration about the lack of model agreement, let's remember that we've been talking about this monsoon trough and possible tropical cyclone for close to 10 days now. Sometimes it's easy to forget how good the models are on a larger scale.

[psyclone]

FWIW the WPC 7 day QPF has broad brushed the heaviest rain from Louisiana eastward. Relative to previous forecasts it looks like they're hedging their bets a bit so it will be interesting to see if this trend continues but it makes sense considering the right loaded nature of the system thus far.

[boca]

Can I have the link to that site that shows the precipitation totals?

[RL3AO]

Can I have the link to that site that shows the precipitation totals?

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-7.shtml

[psyclone]

Can I have the link to that site that shows the precipitation totals?

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-7.shtml