ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CycloneGuru]

I think the fact that since this has ALREADY become a tropical storm, increases the likelihood that this will be a hurricane by landfall. I didn't think this would reach tropical storm status until late tomorrow morning

RI has begun

[Alyono]

I think the fact that since this has ALREADY become a tropical storm, increases the likelihood that this will be a hurricane by landfall. I didn't think this would reach tropical storm status until late tomorrow morning

RI has begun

no, it has not. The structure is not yet right for rapid intensification to occur. Need that RMW to contract significantly first

[1900hurricane]

Still much to be desired structurally.

[SouthDadeFish]

Looks to me like the center is reforming closer to the deep convective bursts. All that diabating heating is generating a ton of low-level vorticity. The 00Z HWRF seems to have accurately predicted this so far.

[NDG]

Based on the NOAA recon, Harvey is on the move again, or at least the LLC has tugged closer to the convection on the norther quadrant.

[hd44]

Looks to me like the center is reforming closer to the deep convective bursts. All that diabating heating is generating a ton of low-level vorticity. The 00Z HWRF seems to have accurately predicted this so far.

'Yes which is why the Ukmet may be right .

[wxmann_91]

It almost feels like shear has picked up a bit tonight. Harvey's structure looks more asymmetric than earlier in the day and you can see the movement of cirrus streamers to Harvey's southwest. The shear should decrease in the coming 24 hr but sometimes global models are a bit too quick to weaken ULL's and their shearing influences.

[TexWx]

Looks to me like the center is reforming closer to the deep convective bursts. All that diabating heating is generating a ton of low-level vorticity. The 00Z HWRF seems to have accurately predicted this so far.

'Yes which is why the Ukmet may be right .

Yep.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

Looks to me like the center is reforming closer to the deep convective bursts. All that diabating heating is generating a ton of low-level vorticity. The 00Z HWRF seems to have accurately predicted this so far.

'Yes which is why the Ukmet may be right .

UKMET shifted west

[BRweather]

It really did not take long for the center to get under the convection. Every recon pass showing significant jump to north. Probably will resume slow northwest/north-northwest drift again soon.

[mcheer23]

Looks to me like the center is reforming closer to the deep convective bursts. All that diabating heating is generating a ton of low-level vorticity. The 00Z HWRF seems to have accurately predicted this so far.

'Yes which is why the Ukmet may be right .

UKMET shifted west

UKMET is still around matagorda bay.

[hd44]

Looks to me like the center is reforming closer to the deep convective bursts. All that diabating heating is generating a ton of low-level vorticity. The 00Z HWRF seems to have accurately predicted this so far.

'Yes which is why the Ukmet may be right .

UKMET shifted west

Its well east of the Gfs.

[1900hurricane]

Here's a SLIDER loop of Harvey from GOES-16's Mesoscale Window 2 of band 13 overlaid on band 7.

http://col.st/HqwT7

[KyleEverett]

000
WTNT64 KNHC 240403
TCUAT4

Tropical Storm Harvey Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1100 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...

An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft just measured
tropical storm force winds in Harvey. The maximum winds are
estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM CDT...0400 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 92.6W
ABOUT 500 MI...810 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM SE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Avila/Zelinsky

[BRweather]

Goodness.

That center has shot north considerably. Was not expecting that

[SoupBone]

Goodness.

That center has shot north considerably. Was not expecting that

I don't see it, but maybe this is what Aric was talking about. He seems to believe that a first landfall in Louisiana is possible, missing Texas altogether (outside of bands).

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

Goodness.

That center has shot north considerably. Was not expecting that

I don't see it, but maybe this is what Aric was talking about. He seems to believe that a first landfall in Louisiana is possible, missing Texas altogether (outside of bands).

The center never shifted north it'd a illusion this is heading for Texas

[Blinhart]

000
WTNT64 KNHC 240403
TCUAT4

Tropical Storm Harvey Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1100 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...

An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft just measured
tropical storm force winds in Harvey. The maximum winds are
estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM CDT...0400 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 92.6W
ABOUT 500 MI...810 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM SE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Avila/Zelinsky

At that speed it would take almost 2 weeks to get to the coastline, so it definitely needs to speed up.

And it has basically gone due north.
Coordinates from this morning
INIT 23/1500Z 21.5N 92.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

Coordinates as of 10pm tonight
INIT 24/0300Z 21.9N 92.6W 30 KT 35 MPH

[BRweather]

Goodness.

That center has shot north considerably. Was not expecting that

I don't see it, but maybe this is what Aric was talking about. He seems to believe that a first landfall in Louisiana is possible, missing Texas altogether (outside of bands).

The center never shifted north it'd a illusion this is heading for Texas

I am looking at it on recon. It has definitely moved further north under the convection.

[1900hurricane]

Goodness.

That center has shot north considerably. Was not expecting that

I don't see it, but maybe this is what Aric was talking about. He seems to believe that a first landfall in Louisiana is possible, missing Texas altogether (outside of bands).

The center never shifted north it'd a illusion this is heading for Texas

I'm skeptical of a Louisiana solution, but the center has absolutely shifted north per recon data.