ATL: HARVEY - Models

[Kingarabian]

H50 GFS heading SSE back towards the Gulf on the immediate coast

Going to be interesting if it redevelops once again as the EPS loses it in the exact same scenario.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS hours 126-156:

[Frank P]

H50 GFS heading SSE back towards the Gulf on the immediate coast

Going to be interesting if it redevelops once again as the EPS loses it in the exact same scenario.

Going to be really interesting if it comes in stronger and makes it back to the Gulf, right on the cusp at H150, almost at the direct spot in came inland at about H84

[NDG]

18z GFS looks more similar to the 12z Euro Ensemble with it tracking back south across TX after stalling in central TX.

Scary similarities.

[Frank P]

H162 back in the Gulf... wow.. to crazy...

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS over water beginning to restrengthen some, hour 162:

[Alyono]

looks like it makes it a hurricane south of Beaumont

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS hours 150-174, beginning to deepen:

[Christiana]

Looks like it's just hugging the coastline.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS hour 180, hugging the Louisiana coast:

[Alyono]

maybe a cat 2 into Louisiana on round 2

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS hour 18 landfall likely as a cat.2 in LA:

[Blown Away]

18z GFS... Crazy run... Just remember how much will change over next 180 hours...

[Frank P]

H186 looks like its over or very near to Baton Rouge... dang...

[hd44]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Allison

Kinda similar to this cat. Hope its not as bad.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS hour 192, maybe a 3rd hurricane landfall over MS:

[South Texas Storms]

Not bad agreement between the latest GFS and Euro runs. Especially considering the complex steering set up.

[Frank P]

18z GFS... Crazy run... Just remember how much will change over next 180 hours...

Crazy for sure, but this is not the GFS first run like this either.. and what really is cray cray is this is very similar to what the EURO has been consistently forecasting for the past 3 runs... and very similar to what the CMC was cooking on its last iteration... at one point, and maybe that's now, you gotta think they might be on to something...

[ROCK]

Racer storm I saw someone post...raked almost the entire Gulf Coast...wow

but lets keep it in perspective....it is the GFS of 2017....lets some more globals follow..soon this will be now casting as its so close...many wobbles to watch.

[Kingarabian]

If the models pan out, this is a classic example on why we shouldn't put too much weight on a hurricane's category to determine potential damage. It doesn't look like Harvey will reach major hurricane status at the moment, but I'm pretty its aftermath in 3 states added up will equate to one. So be prepared.