ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Inner eye is collapsing quickly. Outter eye is not all closed but still taking over. Maybe also the microwave image resolution issue

[seaswing]

[/quote]I took my Chihuahua out one last time in Frances when winds were on the border of TS/Cat 1 it was my first storm. He lifted his leg and flew about 20 feet back.[/quote]

Haha! Well, I usually just lurk but I had to add this off topic comment. During Frances, I had just gotten my new Golden Retriever puppy. He was only 8 weeks old and like you, I took him out to potty during the times in between the squalls. Problem was sometimes the wind would pick up before he was done. My windows were all boarded up so it was black inside. You could not see the poop bombs he would leave. Yuck! You knew it when you stepped in it!! No water to clean up until you went outside and washed it off in the rain. I also have to add that I still have that puppy, except he is 13 yrs. old!! Seems hard yo believe it's been 13 yrs since Florida was hammered one right after another, 2004.

[cycloneye]

@EricBlake12
The much-awaited south-of-west motion has begun- very interested to see how far south #Irma gets since will affect things for days to come

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/904154673204137984

[AutoPenalti]

Inner eye is collapsing quickly. Outter eye is not all closed but still taking over. Maybe also the microwave image resolution issue

Is a EWRC underway?

[eastcoastFL]

I took my Chihuahua out one last time in Frances when winds were on the border of TS/Cat 1 it was my first storm. He lifted his leg and flew about 20 feet back.[/quote]

Haha! Well, I usually just lurk but I had to add this off topic comment. During Frances, I had just gotten my new Golden Retriever puppy. He was only 8 weeks old and like you, I took him out to potty during the times in between the squalls. Problem was sometimes the wind would pick up before he was done. My windows were all boarded up so it was black inside. You could not see the poop bombs he would leave. Yuck! You knew it when you stepped in it!! No water to clean up until you went outside and washed it off in the rain. I also have to add that I still have that puppy, except he is 13 yrs. old!! Seems hard yo believe it's been 13 yrs since Florida was hammered one right after another, 2004.[/quote]


It really doesn't seem like it's been that long. During Wilma and Jeanne he wouldn't even go outside past the steps. He learned.

[NotSparta]

Is it #2 or #3, I thought she went through one early this morning.

It's #3, Irma is the ultimate ERC producer

Hurricane Fernanda would have a problem with this statement.

I think Irma is doing it more, this is Irma's 3rd in 2-3 days, did Fernanda produce more?

[storm_in_a_teacup]

I took my Chihuahua out one last time in Frances when winds were on the border of TS/Cat 1 it was my first storm. He lifted his leg and flew about 20 feet back.[/quote]

Haha! Well, I usually just lurk but I had to add this off topic comment. During Frances, I had just gotten my new Golden Retriever puppy. He was only 8 weeks old and like you, I took him out to potty during the times in between the squalls. Problem was sometimes the wind would pick up before he was done. My windows were all boarded up so it was black inside. You could not see the poop bombs he would leave. Yuck! You knew it when you stepped in it!! No water to clean up until you went outside and washed it off in the rain. I also have to add that I still have that puppy, except he is 13 yrs. old!! Seems hard yo believe it's been 13 yrs since Florida was hammered one right after another, 2004.[/quote]

So hurricanes can throw poop bombs. I learned something today.
(And I always thought that only could happen when all the seagulls get caught inside.)

[NotSparta]

Just an observation, not based on science, but just experience watching hurricanes. When a storm is being forced S of due W, sometimes that S motion component persists longer than forecast. We saw this with Katrina over FL and Ike over Cuba for example... both were delayed in resuming a W and WNW direction. Not saying this setup is the same, but I hope for the sake of those in the islands that Irma doesn't delay her turn back W and WNW.

Probably because southward movements are rarer and harder to predict, that's my guess

[Aric Dunn]

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_pregen_sat/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc17/ATL/11L.IRMA/amsub/89/2degreeticks/20170902.2157.noaa18.x.89.11LIRMA.95kts-973mb-187N-440W.100pc.jpg


Inner eye is collapsing quickly. Outter eye is not all closed but still taking over. Maybe also the microwave image resolution issue

Is a EWRC underway?

Its nearly complete. Larger eye now starting to clear out on IR

[painkillerr]

I took my Chihuahua out one last time in Frances when winds were on the border of TS/Cat 1 it was my first storm. He lifted his leg and flew about 20 feet back.

Haha! Well, I usually just lurk but I had to add this off topic comment. During Frances, I had just gotten my new Golden Retriever puppy. He was only 8 weeks old and like you, I took him out to potty during the times in between the squalls. Problem was sometimes the wind would pick up before he was done. My windows were all boarded up so it was black inside. You could not see the poop bombs he would leave. Yuck! You knew it when you stepped in it!! No water to clean up until you went outside and washed it off in the rain. I also have to add that I still have that puppy, except he is 13 yrs. old!! Seems hard yo believe it's been 13 yrs since Florida was hammered one right after another, 2004.[/quote]

So hurricanes can throw poop bombs. I learned something today.
(And I always thought that only could happen when all the seagulls get caught inside.)[/quote]

Can we drop the Chihuahua distraction please? Some of us are in the cross hairs here and need to focus on serious things. Thanks!

[pcolaman]

Just an observation, not based on science, but just experience watching hurricanes. When a storm is being forced S of due W, sometimes that S motion component persists longer than forecast. We saw this with Katrina over FL and Ike over Cuba for example... both were delayed in resuming a W and WNW direction. Not saying this setup is the same, but I hope for the sake of those in the islands that Irma doesn't delay her turn back W and WNW.

Probably because southward movements are rarer and harder to predict, that's my guess

I believe that Ivan did the same and then danced around most of the islands

[painkillerr]

Can we drop the Chihuahua distraction please? Some of us are in the cross hairs here and need to focus on serious things. Thanks![/quote]

[wxman57]

https://i.imgur.com/prtBOCW.gif
Irma losing latitude quickly now..
Lowest Latitude Predicted By Past Few Forecasts:
5pm: 16.8 (Today)
11am: 17.1
5am: 17.0
11pm: 16.8 (Last Night)

** I'll be interested to see if the 11pm drops lower than 16.8, farther S Irma goes the longer it will take to go W and becomes a closer call for NE Caribbean... Something to watch...

Our 7-day track has it down to 16.7N but passing far enough north of the Lesser Antilles to keep hurricane-force winds out of the islands. Hurricane-force winds will only extend about 30 miles south of the center. I think San Juan will be OK, perhaps brushed by the outer edge of TS winds if the storm tracks a bit south of the forecast. Keep a sharp eye on it until it passes, though.

[Aric Dunn]

https://i.imgur.com/prtBOCW.gif
Irma losing latitude quickly now..
Lowest Latitude Predicted By Past Few Forecasts:
5pm: 16.8 (Today)
11am: 17.1
5am: 17.0
11pm: 16.8 (Last Night)

** I'll be interested to see if the 11pm drops lower than 16.8, farther S Irma goes the longer it will take to go W and becomes a closer call for NE Caribbean... Something to watch...

Our 7-day track has it down to 16.7N but passing far enough north of the Lesser Antilles to keep hurricane-force winds out of the islands. Hurricane-force winds will only extend about 30 miles south of the center.

Assuming it does not go through 10 more ERC before then lol.. Then the wind wind field will likely quite a bit bigger.

Or wobbles are an issue with such a angle and close approach.

[tiger_deF]

If you look at the large green tongue of air extending into the system, is it possible that the dry air could potentially intrude inside the system and keep it from strengthening significantly at all?

[Hurricane Andrew]

Looking at microwave, does anyone else see this system as decoupled?

[weathaguyry]

Looking at microwave, does anyone else see this system as decoupled?

I didn't even know a Cat 2 hurricane over the water could decouple

[Alyono]

Ridge likely stronger than modeled. Forcing it WSW at a faster speed.

The forward motion is one thing.. the big player is when the turn happens. How far south it gets will act like a slower or faster system.

What would that mean for the northern islands...I'm on St. Thomas

I'm becoming more worried. Greatest worries are for Barbuda, St. martin, and Anguilla

[Aric Dunn]

Looking at microwave, does anyone else see this system as decoupled?

I didn't even know a Cat 2 hurricane over the water could decouple

Just check recent sat loop. Here . IR channel 4

Its clearing out nicely.
https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/ ... and14.html

[txwatcher91]

Looks like the warmer waters are really starting to help Irma out. EWRC almost done based on a recent 37GHz pass.