ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hammy]

Convection appears that it's starting to rotate around the circulation rather than having a shear pattern with convection in a somewhat static line. Harvey's organizing quicker than I expected--it's already close to what I thought a few days back the landfall intensity would be.

[South Texas Storms]

Convection appears that it's starting to rotate around the circulation rather than having a shear pattern with convection in a somewhat static line. Harvey's organizing quicker than I expected--it's already close to what I thought a few days back the landfall intensity would be.

Yep Harvey's satellite appearance has definitely improved over the past several hours. Starting to see banding form.

[BRweather]

How accurate is that pressure drop? Down to 999mb according to vortex message.

[drezee]

It will be hard for the center to not get sucked N by that tower...

That was spot on...the center went straight N after that. I believe RI is imminent! I pray for those in Harvey's path. I frankly feel the forecast is underdone. I would be preparing for a major hurricane landfall unless Harvey speeds up. Getting that early Opal look...

[Sciencerocks]

It will be hard for the center to not get sucked N by that tower...

That was spot on...the center went straight N after that. I believe RI is imminent! I pray for those in Harvey's path. I frankly feel the forecast is underdone. I would be preparing for a major hurricane landfall unless Harvey speeds up. Getting that early Opal look...

I think this is a good candidate to end our 12 year major drought.

[Hammy]

Pressure below 1000mb, and close to the middle of the convection, which is looking a bit circular now.

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

I see retirement is imminent...

[Hammy]

Latest recon pass looks like it's going to be almost a half degree north of the previous one--the further north this goes (and the sooner it does so) the less distance inland I think it's going to go when it gets to Texas.

[Alyono]

How accurate is that pressure drop? Down to 999mb according to vortex message.

21 kts at the surface. pressure may be 997

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

HARVEY is doing better than most though it would. Quite a few wrote this storm off in the
Caribbean.

[hd44]

Harvey is likely 50 mph... however this cdo is irregular and not circular as of now. Probably watch for new burst to form later today and really get going.

[hurricanehunter69]

Check out the latest water vapor loop. It appears the west ridge is blocking movement to the west and the approaching trough is inducing a slow movement north. I would not at all be surprised to see Harvey resume a NNW movement though, Therefore, I would be very interested in this storm if I lived in Galveston/Houston area on east......all the way to New Orleans. All those in Corpus Christi ( MAY ) be able to breath a sigh of relief. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

[hd44]

Indication of how fast storms can intensify if the system takes a loop and moves near the shelf waters. Humberto is an example.

[BRweather]

Well. Pressure seems to he falling at a good clip. At least 996mb at this latest pass.

[paintplaye]

Check out the latest water vapor loop. It appears the west ridge is blocking movement to the west and the approaching trough is inducing a slow movement north. I would not at all be surprised to see Harvey resume a NNW movement though, Therefore, I would be very interested in this storm if I lived in Galveston/Houston area on east......all the way to New Orleans. All those in Corpus Christi ( MAY ) be able to breath a sigh of relief. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

These are not actual movements, these are center relocations/tugs under the heavier convection, not true movement. In actuality there isn't much of any movement with this system. No one can breath any sigh of relief. Corpus area still looks like likely landfall point.

[loon]

sorry for super off topic, but is storm2k IRC still on esper? like, there is 8 people? It use to be 200 in storms. i have to believe im on the wrong server. i went by the forum guidelines though.

also, im in downtown houston and will report as long as i can.

good luck all, and good to see you all again, keep up the good work, especially Jeff L. !!! <3

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

996 in the ALT likey a T3. Shear looks to holding this back atm.

[Hammy]

FWIW pressure is five hours ahead of where the 3km NAM had it, which is certainly something.

[Bizzles]

FWIW pressure is five hours ahead of where the 3km NAM had it, which is certainly something.

As in lower? IIRC the 3km NAM had landfall near 912mb

[drezee]

It will be hard for the center to not get sucked N by that tower...

That was spot on...the center went straight N after that. I believe RI is imminent! I pray for those in Harvey's path. I frankly feel the forecast is underdone. I would be preparing for a major hurricane landfall unless Harvey speeds up. Getting that early Opal look...

3mb drop in 90 mins
No coc drop with less than 20 mph in hours. Violent center...lightning soon