ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hammy]

FWIW pressure is five hours ahead of where the 3km NAM had it, which is certainly something.

As in lower? IIRC the 3km NAM had landfall near 912mb

Trending lower, yeah. It's about 996-997mb at the moment, whereas the model had it higher than that until about 9am. I don't think it'll reach the peak the model is showing, but if it's outdoing the intensification rate at all that's certainly not a good sign.

[hd44]

This is intensifying fast folks 996 mb? This is getting serious.

[Bizzles]

FWIW pressure is five hours ahead of where the 3km NAM had it, which is certainly something.

As in lower? IIRC the 3km NAM had landfall near 912mb

Trending lower, yeah. It's about 996-997mb at the moment, whereas the model had it higher than that until about 9am. I don't think it'll reach the peak the model is showing, but if it's outdoing the intensification rate at all that's certainly not a good sign.

Very true, just saw the 06Z is now in the low 880s...

[hd44]

Nam is going patricia :O

[Kingarabian]

That NAM needs to be ignored when it comes to intensity.

[Kingarabian]

How accurate is that pressure drop? Down to 999mb according to vortex message.

21 kts at the surface. pressure may be 997

Large systems = lower pressures, similar to Cindy or vice versa?

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Nam is going patricia :O

The last op run channel 4 was much tamer.
https://s30.postimg.org/6fl7pwto1/nam.c ... 4rad51.gif

[hd44]

That NAM needs to be ignored when it comes to intensity.

Right but latest Gfs came in much stronger 00z...so while Nam is wrong... rapid intensification is likely( as of now at least)

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

That NAM needs to be ignored when it comes to intensity.

All the models since the getgo including the ec have been flawed with this system.
The models in the days of lower res imo use to be more accurate at times.

[Alyono]

That NAM needs to be ignored when it comes to intensity.

it's too close to the boundary

[Alyono]

How accurate is that pressure drop? Down to 999mb according to vortex message.

21 kts at the surface. pressure may be 997

Large systems = lower pressures, similar to Cindy or vice versa?

depends upon environmental pressures

[hd44]

Impressive... this looking bad.

[loon]

y'all a little storm just popped up over downtown.. this area is ripe.. http://www.lightningmaps.org/?lang=en#y ... dc=0;ra=1;

[stormreader]

Well. Pressure seems to he falling at a good clip. At least 996mb at this latest pass.

Yes. And I'm not sold on the storm ever making a landfall in south-central Texas coastal area. Tendencies now are running a little more back east. Less penetration of coast in model runs. I'm thinking it will approach the coast there, but stay offshore. Little or no weakening then, before it takes a more ENE course to somewhere in the area of the Tex-La border.

[stormreader]

Oh yeah, it won't be long now. By this afternoon, could be a whole new situation confronting coastal area, not just the rainfall amounts. Coming together nicely.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Putting aside the modeling Alyono and using your skills @ the current synoptics,
whats your opinion in the future intensity for Harvey.

Would be good to know what 57 thinks about this storm , its coming to his neck of the woods.

Most of us here just use models as the intensity guide ie shear, sst, moisture, you have
a big advantage Alyono with your advanced degree a hint please.

[Hammy]

New advisory keeps the intensity the same--it seems the lack of SFMR on the last pass kept them from increasing the intensity.

[northjaxpro]

Harvey is building an impressive convection around the COC. This cyclone is intensifying right now and it will not be long at all before we have the third hurricane of this season. I think it could be a hurricane as early as late this morning.

This is a potentially very bad situation unfolding for all along coastal TX and South and SE Texas with the potential flooding threat. We may be potentially looking at a Cat 3 hurricane making landfall, then meandering and impacting this region for as long as about a week.

My prayers to everyone out there who are facing this prospect for days to come.

[xironman]

The minute I read this I knew it was going to say Avila at the bottom.

"There are some unconfirmed reports of stronger winds at flight-level to the northeast of the center, but I am waiting for the plane to go back to that area for confirmation."

[GCANE]