ATL: HARVEY - Models

[sphelps8681]

http://fltwx.db.erau.edu/get_loop.php?&cnt=27&dir=model_erau/NAM/FLLWS/US/

http://fltwx.db.erau.edu/get_loop.php?& ... AM/FPW/US/

Looks a tad further north.

Look further north and a hint of a N or NNE component at the very end of the run... that run looks like a Galveston impact

Yes I see!! Definitely a a more N/NNE move there.

[weatherguy425]

Looks a tad further north.

Look further north and a hint of a N or NNE component at the very end of the run... that run looks like a Galveston impact

Yes I see!! Definitely a a more N/NNE move there.

*Be careful* judging perceived motion with variables such as PWATS, Wind; especially with a system that has modeled structure changes through the course of the run.

[Craters]

Because the model does not start running until after 21z.

Also gfs uses a 3dvar based system that maps all obs to the starting model time

Ah! Okay -- thank you!

[Steve]

NAM 12km is out to 24 hours and organizing, 1004mb and probably a bit NW of where I thought it would be in 24 hours. CAVEAT: Best Track was around 20N so it's 5 degrees to far south to even pretend like it's any good. But it's the only game in town now.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=708

[Blown Away]

Nearly all the 00z intensity models do not take Ex Harvey to Hurricane...

[Steve]

Okay it loops it down there a couple times buying time. Too out of range imho

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

NAM 12km is out to 24 hours and organizing, 1004mb and probably a bit NW of where I thought it would be in 24 hours. CAVEAT: Best Track was around 20N so it's 5 degrees to far south to even pretend like it's any good. But it's the only game in town now.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=708

This run is more reasonable and it has the data fed into it from the NOAA missions today !

[mcheer23]

00Z Nam so far is further north

[msp]

Both 12km and 32km NAM are stronger and further north than 18z

[lrak]

If you look at the new 200mb Vorticity - North Atlantic Map it shows a new ULL low in the BOC. I wonder if this is going to steer it between the two?

[cycloneye]

@EricBlake12
All G-IV dropsondes should be in the 00z models, along w/special soundings across the South- time to watch for any #Harvey model shifts

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/900163038866804736

[stormlover2013]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=140

[Hammy]

I think we can toss the NAM intensity forecast.

[jason1912]

Hopefully that 3KM NAM forecast is wrong

[South Texas Storms]

I think we can toss the NAM intensity forecast.

And it's track. Has it heading towards Louisiana without a landfall in Texas at the end of the run. Only model to show that.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Let us all hope and pray that the NAM does not verify. Heading toward LA at the end as a very strong hurricane. Kind of stalled out off the Texas coastline.

[stormlover2013]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=109

Nam is done

[tarheelprogrammer]

I think we can toss the NAM intensity forecast.

Why? I see the 3km is showing something crazy, but 32km not so much. At least in my opinion.

[HurricaneBrain]

Question is, did that gulfstream jet data have a factor in the NAM running further north? And will it have the same effect on 0z GFS?

[Steve]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam&region=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2017082300&fh=69&xpos=0&ypos=140

The 3km resolution is the best one in my opinion. And it cuts off south of 25N. So it stalls it and loops it around because it's out of range. Crazy enough it's down to like the 920s and nowhere near land. I think that's a throw away. Because there is no reason that wouldn't get to Cat 4 or 5 the way it's going with the run. I seriously doubt (hope) that isn't the way this is going to go and don't buy it. Unless I'm dead wrong, it's a great teaching example of why you can't look at the NAM that far south. I'm not fully against the ideas of a hit up closer to Galveston from the lower res runs, but globals and time will have to convince me.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... =0&ypos=10