ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jdjaguar]

Maria is in the Caribbean...

she wasnt born in the caribbean and hasnt quite reached it yet. It starts right around Haiti.

Huh? She most definitely is in the Caribbean now. The Carib runs from Venezuela to Florida, and from Panama to the leewards/windwards.

It most assuredly does not run to florida

[Alyono]

Maria is growing significantly in size. Hurricane winds not seem to extend out about 50 miles from the center

[HedwigTramp]

Weather station in Lime Tree Bay, St. Croix
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=ltbv3

[DTMEDIC]

she wasnt born in the caribbean and hasnt quite reached it yet. It starts right around Haiti.

Huh? She most definitely is in the Caribbean now. The Carib runs from Venezuela to Florida, and from Panama to the leewards/windwards.

It most assuredly does not run to florida

Per Wikipedia: The Caribbean Sea (Spanish: Mar Caribe; French: Mer des Caraïbes Dutch: Caraïbische Zee) is a sea of the Atlantic Ocean in the tropics of the Western Hemisphere. It is bounded by Mexico and Central America to the west and south west, to the north by the Greater Antilles starting with Cuba, to the east by the Lesser Antilles, and to the south by the north coast of South America.

[chaser1]

Unfortunately, it appears Puerto Rico will not escape landfall from one of the most devastating hurricanes in the islands modern history. I worry many will be without electricity for weeks or months.

You know, being without power for 3 days during Irma sucked just enough. Couple days ago I spoke to a woman working at Publix here in Orlando and she was still without power and said that Duke Energy said it may well be upwards to about 25 more days before everyone in Sanford (just north of Orlando) had power back? Beyond the damage in the Florida Keys, Irma was a walk in the park compared to what Puerto Rico is about to experience. Gonna be one nasty storm

[rickybobby]

Wesh 2 were interviewing people at Home Depot who were buying water, wooden sheets, batteries and generators because they did not want to take a chance with Maria. Tony said Maria will be over 300 miles away and no threat to Florida. Eric on his coffee chat said something's is trying to form in the gulf and push it towards Florida next week.

[SkeetoBite]

[NDG]

211000 1654N 06354W 6970 02724 9578 +116 +116 113131 137 116 025 00
211030 1652N 06355W 6956 02623 9448 +127 +127 102146 148 137 041 00
211100 1651N 06357W 6992 02464 9232 +141 //// 091098 146 148 012 05
211130 1649N 06358W 6982 02408 9175 +177 +152 077045 072 /// /// 03
211200 1647N 06358W 6961 02414 9137 +200 +130 075018 033 062 003 00
211230 1646N 06358W 6968 02392 9127 +203 +118 304005 013 053 000 03
211300 1644N 06357W 6971 02398 9141 +194 +127 270033 048 /// /// 03
211330 1642N 06358W 6959 02449 9193 +174 +149 276080 099 095 005 03

[sweetpea]

So I just checked closest approach with the 5 pm numbers. My dad will be 8.3 miles from the center of the eye. He is 1.5 miles from the shore in Aguirre. He is 81 years old and stubborn, he will not leave his house. His neighbors are coming to his house. When I talked to him a little while ago I hung up crying because he actually sounded scared. Not something I have ever heard from him before. He is in a poured concrete house that my grandfather built 60 years ago. The rest of my family there are either in wood built houses or on a mountain or a side of a mountain. My dad might be in the best place, but with this storm I am not sure there is a best place on an island.

I sit here with my stomach in knots and tears coming down my face. My heart hurts thinking about everything my family and all the people on that beautiful island will go through in the next 24 hours. All these islands have been through hell and back the last few weeks. I hope they can recover quickly.

Sending prayers to everyone in the path of this storm. Sorry for the long post, but I had to vent for a minute, hubby is down in Florida for hurricane Irma relief, so I am here by myself.

[flamingosun]

Wind field:

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

From the 5PM advisory

[BlowHard]

Unfortunately, it appears Puerto Rico will not escape landfall from one of the most devastating hurricanes in the islands modern history. I worry many will be without electricity for weeks or months.

You know, being without power for 3 days during Irma sucked just enough. Couple days ago I spoke to a woman working at Publix here in Orlando and she was still without power and said that Duke Energy said it may well be upwards to about 25 more days before everyone in Sanford (just north of Orlando) had power back? Beyond the damage in the Florida Keys, Irma was a walk in the park compared to what Puerto Rico is about to experience. Gonna be one nasty storm

Many people still don't have power in PR. At least not in Vieques. In Vieques, power was restored three days ago.

[Aric Dunn]

Wind field:

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

From the 5PM advisory

not according to recon..

[Aric Dunn]

well at least for now looks like the pressure has leveled off.

[cjrciadt]

So I just checked closest approach with the 5 pm numbers. My dad will be 8.3 miles from the center of the eye. He is 1.5 miles from the shore in Aguirre. He is 81 years old and stubborn, he will not leave his house. His neighbors are coming to his house. When I talked to him a little while ago I hung up crying because he actually sounded scared. Not something I have ever heard from him before. He is in a poured concrete house that my grandfather built 60 years ago. The rest of my family there are either in wood built houses or on a mountain or a side of a mountain. My dad might be in the best place, but with this storm I am not sure there is a best place on an island.

I sit here with my stomach in knots and tears coming down my face. My heart hurts thinking about everything my family and all the people on that beautiful island will go through in the next 24 hours. All these islands have been through hell and back the last few weeks. I hope they can recover quickly.

Sending prayers to everyone in the path of this storm. Sorry for the long post, but I had to vent for a minute, hubby is down in Florida for hurricane Irma relief, so I am here by myself.

I understand your feelings. My Grandfather is in a similar built home in Carolina. He gained power back two days ago.

[FLpanhandle91]

117115 118 105 010 01
211000 1654N 06354W 6970 02724 9578 +116 +116 113131 137 116 025 00
211030 1652N 06355W 6956 02623 9448 +127 +127 102146 148 137 041 00
211100 1651N 06357W 6992 02464 9232 +141 //// 091098 146 148 012 05
211130 1649N 06358W 6982 02408 9175 +177 +152 077045 072 /// /// 03
211200 1647N 06358W 6961 02414 9137 +200 +130 075018 033 062 003 00
211230 1646N 06358W 6968 02392 9127 +203 +118 304005 013 053 000 03
211300 1644N 06357W 6971 02398 9141 +194 +127 270033 048 /// /// 03
211330 1642N 06358W 6959 02449 9193 +174 +149 276080 099 095 005 03
211400 1641N 06358W 6962 02525 9326 +153 //// 285119 130 139 043 01
211430 1640N 06359W 6990 02559 9405 +136 //// 287123 130 135 049 05
211500 1640N 06400W 6947 02674 9468 +133 //// 288118 120 117 033 01
211530 1639N 06401W 6972 02699 9514 +128 //// 290112 117 112 021 01

[jdjaguar]

Huh? She most definitely is in the Caribbean now. The Carib runs from Venezuela to Florida, and from Panama to the leewards/windwards.

It most assuredly does not run to florida

Per Wikipedia: The Caribbean Sea (Spanish: Mar Caribe; French: Mer des Caraïbes Dutch: Caraïbische Zee) is a sea of the Atlantic Ocean in the tropics of the Western Hemisphere. It is bounded by Mexico and Central America to the west and south west, to the north by the Greater Antilles starting with Cuba, to the east by the Lesser Antilles, and to the south by the north coast of South America.

To the north, bounded by Cuba.

I rest my case.

[Aric Dunn]

umm ok... last 20 min or so radar showing the outer eyewall has pretty much filled in ... weird..

[chaser1]

Wesh 2 were interviewing people at Home Depot who were buying water, wooden sheets, batteries and generators because they did not want to take a chance with Maria. Tony said Maria will be over 300 miles away and no threat to Florida. Eric on his coffee chat said something's is trying to form in the gulf and push it towards Florida next week.

Models 1-2 days ago were hinting at a broad system later in the cycle to emerge from the S. Gulf and move toward Florida. I'm not seeing continued model consistency with this feature though. Could pop back up I suppose but far from any certainty yet. Present GFS 12Z data shows a possible candidate for an E. Pac storm to develop and attempt to cross over into the Gulf around 162 hours but failing, then making a second attempt to come play in our sandbox at about 300 hr.'s. Nothing very clear yet.

[NDG]

I see that NOAA is finally sampling the atmosphere around Maria, will go into tonight's 0z model runs.

[SunnyThoughts]

912.7 mb?