ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

Shear has vanished. Please be careful everyone ... if I was in a warned area I would already be driving away from the coast. Pay attention to local authorities for evacuation plans.

[Hurricaneman]

Shear has vanished. Please be careful everyone ... if I was in a warned area I would already be driving away from the coast. Pay attention to local authorities for evacuation plans.

If I were on the Texas coast I'd be heading for Oklahoma

[hd44]

This is starting to remind me of the bad storms of the past. Gulf does it again.

[Kingarabian]

Damn too bad these Microwave passes are useless. Would love to see its current structure...

[Texas Snowman]

Based on trends and model output, time may certainly be of the essence today.

Will be interesting to see decisions made as NHC and local governments discuss landfall and intensity possibilities.

[hd44]

Shear has vanished. Please be careful everyone ... if I was in a warned area I would already be driving away from the coast. Pay attention to local authorities for evacuation plans.

If I were on the Texas coast I'd be heading for Oklahoma

Yeh the upper low was forecasted to dissipate. It appears model underestimated the initial state (vorticity) of the system. These can sometimes lead to massive intensity differences days beyond hour 0.

[GCANE]

This is what I have been worried about.
As Harvey deepens it may connect with the EPAC pool of high-energy air.
MIMIC-TPW is a great tool to see this.
It looks like Harvey has indeed done this.
You can see the "river" opening up over the Yucatan thru Guatemala,
This is an almost unlimited source of energy, not to mention the hot water in the GOM.
The only impairment is the dry slot to Harvey's west.

This GCANE!!

Good post here..This is also my extreme worry. Storm surge will be bad, but on top of that, all that deep, tropical moisture converging potentially in that region. A meandering powerful tropical cyclone just pumping in all that rain and no where for that water to go, with the ground already saturated!

This is very worrisome situation no doubts about it!

Much thanks Northjaxpro.

I just checked COAMPS and it does not show the connection. Very likely models are not factoring this in and underestimating intensity.

[South Texas Storms]

Satellite structure continues to improve with each new image. This may be the start of RI.

[GCANE]

Damn - this pretty much kills the last inhibiting factor for Harvey.
According to COAMPS, that dry slot to the west will fill in with moisture in about 18 hrs.
500mb to 700mb Relative Humidity at 8/24 1800Z.
I hate to say it, but this will be a historical event.
Prayers for everyone in its path.

[RL3AO]

Wow. What a change in organization overnight. Today will likely be a day of critical decisions in the Corpus Christi area.

[KWT]

The structure has got a real look, I've gotta say yesterday morning it had a 'look' that you see in real classic ramping up storms, but now its got itself a ton of convection its hard to imagine this doesn't undergo some form of RI.

I think the NHC have a tough choice now, obviously they have been suggesting a cane is probable into landfall, but with the latest GFS and the current structure the way it is, starting to get the feeling the NHC intensity is going to have to be bumped up at least a solid 20kts, and even that may end up underselling this system!

[otowntiger]

Wow. What a change in organization overnight. Today will likely be a day of critical decisions in the Corpus Christi area.

Hopefully the local officials are getting all the info they need.

[hd44]

Folks this has another day and half to intensify. That is what is most scary.

[KWT]

Folks this has another day and half to intensify. That is what is most scary.

Yes and all those times you hear people say "if only this has another 12hrs over water"...unfortunatly I'm getting a feeling we may actually have that scenario here.

The flooding is still a HUGE concern, but if you get cat-3/4 winds thrown into the mix, that is a huge disaster waiting to happen.

[GCANE]

Maybe this should be in the model thread, but just as a heads up for those that may not look at it.
ULL condtions will be ideal at landfall for a very powerful hurricane.
Technically, there will be no impariments on the vortex structure.
It should be perfectly stacked.

[RL3AO]

Nine hours apart. The major hurricane drought is starting to look like it could be in jeopardy.

[Kingarabian]

Okay well maybe the NAM isn't that crazy. Hopefully the dry air somehow keeps it in check. Thankfully there's disagreement between the Euro and the GFS.

[Kingarabian]

ADT raw numbers up to 4.3. So satellite backs this being a hurricane right now. Hopefully we can get a microwave pass.

[W8NC4TX]

Pro mets: My brother lives in Houston area. Based on what you're seeing now, would this be enough of a threatening situation that I should urge him to head north even though local officials haven't told residents to go yet? And is there still any threat to TX/LA border, based on current info? Thanks.

[BRweather]

ADT raw numbers up to 4.3. So satellite backs this being a hurricane right now. Hopefully we can get a microwave pass.

Thankfully recon is on the way.