ATL: HARVEY - Models

[Steve]

I think we can toss the NAM intensity forecast.

And it's track. Has it heading towards Louisiana without a landfall in Texas at the end of the run. Only model to show that.

Not the 3km. It looks like TX, but 920s. Almost a 0% chance.

[stormlover2013]

Nam look like it's headed to Tex/la border

[Hammy]

I think we can toss the NAM intensity forecast.

Why? I see the 3km is showing something crazy, but 32km not so much. At least in my opinion.

I don't see this reaching any higher than low-end Cat 1 given the upper air situation. Track is interesting--I won't discount it entirely as it was the first model to depict Harvey emerging farther north off the Yucatan, so this could be another trend it spots first.

[stormreader]

Looks a tad further north.

Look further north and a hint of a N or NNE component at the very end of the run... that run looks like a Galveston impact

Yes I see!! Definitely a a more N/NNE move there.

Well, that is now getting close to my own view expressed here for quite some time now. I have not bought into the central Texas landfall models. Models which were outliers showing a trek approaching Texas then turning N and NNE for a landfall near Port Arthur and The Tex-La border is what I have thought is more likely. I think models will swing now north and somewhat east.

[South Texas Storms]

I think we can toss the NAM intensity forecast.

And it's track. Has it heading towards Louisiana without a landfall in Texas at the end of the run. Only model to show that.

Not the 3km. It looks like TX, but 920s. Almost a 0% chance.

Yeah Steve, the 3km track seems more reasonable. The intensity is probably way off.

[tarheelprogrammer]

I think we can toss the NAM intensity forecast.

Why? I see the 3km is showing something crazy, but 32km not so much. At least in my opinion.

I don't see this reaching any higher than low-end Cat 1 given the upper air situation. Track is interesting--I won't discount it entirely as it was the first model to depict Harvey emerging farther north off the Yucatan, so this could be another trend it spots first.

Personally, I think it has the potential if it takes that track as it spends more time over water. What is the upper level conditions on the NAM that would prevent it making major status?

[sphelps8681]

Look further north and a hint of a N or NNE component at the very end of the run... that run looks like a Galveston impact

Yes I see!! Definitely a a more N/NNE move there.

Well, that is now getting close to my own view expressed here for quite some time now. I have not bought into the central Texas landfall models. Models which were outliers showing a trek approaching Texas then turning N and NNE for a landfall near Port Arthur and The Tex-La border is what I have thought is more likely. I think models will swing now north and somewhat east.

I agree that it might move n/nne at landfall but even if it does not the Texas coast to LA will get inundated with rain. Still not a good thing.

[stormreader]

Nam look like it's headed to Tex/la border

Nam has been respectable in so far as its forecast for storm's present location has been born out, while most others had the storm down in the BOC at this time.

[cycloneye]

25 minutes till the 00z GFS.

And with the data from the gulfstream jet ingested,it will be very interesting to see what track and what intensity it will have.

[sphelps8681]

25 minutes till the 00z GFS.

And with the data from the gulfstream jet ingested,it will be very interesting to see what track and what intensity it will have.

When is Euro?

[hd44]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _us_60.png
Cat 5 on Nam. Ukmet had a major so we will see.

[cycloneye]

25 minutes till the 00z GFS.

And with the data from the gulfstream jet ingested,it will be very interesting to see what track and what intensity it will have.

When is Euro?

1:45 AM EDT.

[jaguars_22]

I'm going to say finally Galveston on this next run of gfs!! I think it's going to be further east than matagorda. It has been that way since 2003 why change

[South Texas Storms]

I'm going to say finally Galveston on this next run of gfs!! I think it's going to be further east than matagorda. It has been that way since 2003 why change

That's not a good way to think about it. You being in Victoria should be preparing for this storm to head your way. You're currently near the model consensus. Just because you haven't been hit since 2003 doesn't mean you won't get hit again for a while.

[MississippiWx]

Can't stress enough to those of you living along the TX coastline and possibly SW Louisiana that this storm could be a doozy. Lots of "ifs" as usual, but if this is able to concentrate an area of low pressure sooner rather than later, the strength possibilities are worrisome. I'm not saying Cat 5, but a major hurricane of some sort is not out of the question at all when considering upper level environment and the hottest water temps on the planet. This one should be a strengthening storm at landfall.

The flooding threat post landfall looks extremely bad.

I'm not the kind for hype...these are just very real possibilities. Prepare.

[jaguars_22]

Yes sir I agree this storm is going to have a mind of its own and it's only 2.5 days out. We are taking it seriously

[tolakram]

GFS 0Z Init

[Steve]

And it's track. Has it heading towards Louisiana without a landfall in Texas at the end of the run. Only model to show that.

Not the 3km. It looks like TX, but 920s. Almost a 0% chance.

Yeah Steve, the 3km track seems more reasonable. The intensity is probably way off.

Yeah, I like where the track is going but 923mb at 60 hours is ridiculous. For everyone worrying about the NAM consider that. I disagree with Hammy a little and think that it could get to 2 or possibly push for a 3 in the lesser chance it were to landfall farther up the TX Coast. But we won't have a Cat 5 on Friday morning.

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS trend so far:

[tolakram]

You all are welcome to talk about potential and other general topics in the discussion thread.