ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[redneck51]

But I can tell you that the power grids here are not very good so we can expect blackouts that may last days depending how severe it turns out.

Days in San Juan, weeks out in the country. Jeanne left us without power for over two weeks, water was restored after about 4 weeks!
Irene left us without power for like 10 days if I remember well.

We're finishing preparations today and tomorrow so if the more southern trend continues we will be ready for Irma.

Let's hope the storm stays far away enough to not do a lot of damage to PR and the other islands.
Stay safe!

[Blown Away]

Irma diving SW fast now... Reminds me of Ike/Katrina with that SW to NE orientation due to strong HP...

[knotimpaired]

The newspapers are now reporting that the last boats out of Vieques and Culebra will be at 8 am Tuesday morning.

[GCANE]

Its probably been posted somewhere, but just to make everyone aware.

000
NOUS42 KNHC 021445
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT SAT 02 SEPTEMBER 2017
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2017
TCPOD NUMBER.....17-093

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE IRMA

FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 42 FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 42
A. 03/2100Z A. 04/0900Z
B. NOAA2 0111A IRMA B. NOAA2 0211A IRMA
C. 03/1900Z C. 04/0700Z
D. 17.5N 49.0W D. 17.2N 51.0W
E. 03/2030Z TO 04/0030Z E. 04/0830Z TO 04/1230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. BEGIN 6 HRLY FIX MISSIONS ON HURRICANE IRMA AT 04/1800Z
NEAR 17.2N 52.5W.
B. A G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION AROUND IRMA
WITH TAKEOFF OF 04/1730Z.

[Mouton]

Not liking this comment in the NHC commentary: "It should be noted
that the official forecast still lies to the east of some of the
better-performing models, such as the ECMWF, HWRF, and HCCA, so
additional adjustment are possible in subsequent advisories."

[Blown Away]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
450 AM EDT Sun Sep 3 2017

.DISCUSSION...

...Near to above normal rain chances will continue this week...

...Hurricane Irma is forecast to approach the Bahamas by late week...

Monday-Thursday...A fairly potent autumnal type short wave trough
will amplify over the eastern half of the CONUS on Tuesday-Wednesday
before gradually starting to lift out to the NE by late Thursday.
As this occurs, the weak western nose of the Atlantic surface ridge
over north-central Florida will erode ahead of a bona fide cool
front. Light wind flow Monday-Tuesday will become more southerly on
Wednesday, Then collapse and become north to northeast on Thursday as
the front stalls and lays over across north Florida and offshore the
SE seaboard. After near climo POPs on Monday-Tuesday, expect to see
a significant increase in deep layer moisture with POPs trending
back above normal once again across ECFL. As has been the case the
past several days, Lightning and heavy rain continue to be the main
storm threats, with strong gusty winds also occurring with the
strongest cell cores. Expect temps to be pretty close to normal.

Friday-Sunday...Focus for late week into next weekend will obviously
be toward the SE. Major Hurricane Irma is forecast to approach the
Bahamas and make its closest point of approach, which remains highly
uncertain, to Florida next weekend. While it is still too early to
talk about any specific direct impacts, we are now getting into the
time frame (days 6-8) where model solutions typically begin to show
less run-to-run variance and successively better consensus. Forecast
confidence is increasing that Irma will be a major hurricane as it
passes north, very close to the Greater Antilles through Thursday,
and then near the Bahamas from Friday into this weekend.

Just how close Irma will eventually get to the Bahamas and the
Florida east coast will not be known for several days. However,
given the strength of the system and the overall agreement that the
system will be approaching the Bahamas, it is prudent for people in
east central Florida to closely monitor the system, including
forecasts from the National Hurricane Center, and National Weather
Service, throughout the week. Now is also the time to review your
personal hurricane plan, and ensure you have a fully stocked
hurricane supply kit.

The overall forecast trend should be toward and increasingly breezy
onshore flow through the period. Rain chances are progged to remain
near to above normal, but again will be highly dependent on Irma`s
CPA to Florida. With increasing winds, precip will likely be more of
the gusty/showery type, with lower coverage of storms, especially
next weekend. Max temps will likely be on the lower side of climo
given the increasing clouds and winds.

Edited slightly, it begins... Good info...

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/904312876084711424

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/904311043803017216

[AJC3]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
450 AM EDT Sun Sep 3 2017

.DISCUSSION...

<snip>

Edited slightly, it begins... Good info...

Listen to that guy at your own risk - I heard that he drinks on the midnight shift. LOL

[abajan]

They are obviously taking it very seriously if they are flying out to 49W to catch this system, thats pretty far east for recon to go.

Quite. Only recently I read somewhere that due to the expenses involved, recon don't normally investigate systems until they've passed 53W. But I don't know how true that is.

[Blown Away]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
450 AM EDT Sun Sep 3 2017

.DISCUSSION...

<snip>

Edited slightly, it begins... Good info...

Listen to that guy at your own risk - I heard that he drinks on the midnight shift. LOL

I knew it would be a stellar disco... Hopefully a catastrophic bulletin won't be needed for our area next weekend...

[tolakram]

SLIDER visible

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=18240&y=7229&z=4&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[euro6208]

Interested due to all of the hype. GFS has a sub -900 mb hurricane into the carolinas? Come on GFS, it's not the WPAC!.

[euro6208]

Why are we not worrying about our friends in the Antilles?
I lived there. They are thriving and active islands with families and children and
airports and danger.

Sadly the members here are mostly U.S based and care only their area. More pages mean more interest. The U.S territory of Puerto Rico will feel the brunt.

[Blown Away]

Why are we not worrying about our friends in the Antilles?
I lived there. They are thriving and active islands with families and children and
airports and danger.

Sadly the members here are mostly U.S based and care only their area. More pages mean more interest. The U.S territory of Puerto Rico will feel the brunt.

That is totally untrue, the casual folks that jump in when a storm threatens their area, yes, but the foundation folks on Storm2k are very sensitive to areas outside the US...

[euro6208]

Old news...EURO and GFS has a Cat 5 for the Bahamas before turning north.

[KWT]

Interested due to all of the hype. GFS has a sub -900 mb hurricane into the carolinas? Come on GFS, it's not the WPAC!.

Yep its going to get HUGE attention soon, especially because Harvey has caught the publics mind. I remember in 2004/2005 the storms got huge attention (even here in the UK!) as there was a succession of storms hitting USA in that time period.

Also, does anyone know how far west this needs to be to begin to get rapid scan updates of Irma like we had with Harvey?

[euro6208]

Interested due to all of the hype. GFS has a sub -900 mb hurricane into the carolinas? Come on GFS, it's not the WPAC!.

Yep its going to get HUGE attention soon, especially because Harvey has caught the publics mind. I remember in 2004/2005 the storms got huge attention (even here in the UK!) as there was a succession of storms hitting USA in that time period.

Also, does anyone know how far west this needs to be to begin to get rapid scan updates of Irma like we had with Harvey?

I wonder if it will be remembered if those storms actually hit the Caribbean or Mexico and thus less media.

[KWT]

I wonder if it will be remembered if those storms actually hit the Caribbean or Mexicoand thus less media.

Certainly the ones that hit the states, particularly big cities are remember more, some I suspect Harvey will stick around a long time due to Houston.

However I know that if Irma does hit any of the Caribbean Islands it will get lots of attention on this forum. I'm confident this will be the first hurricane to reach 1000 pages combined (IE, model thread, recon and also this thread.). Matthew came close but just missed out by something like 12 pages. Thats a sure firer way to gauge interest in a storm!

[mike2kt]

Interested due to all of the hype. GFS has a sub -900 mb hurricane into the carolinas? Come on GFS, it's not the WPAC!.

Yep its going to get HUGE attention soon, especially because Harvey has caught the publics mind. I remember in 2004/2005 the storms got huge attention (even here in the UK!) as there was a succession of storms hitting USA in that time period.

Also, does anyone know how far west this needs to be to begin to get rapid scan updates of Irma like we had with Harvey?

GOES-16 Mesoscale-2 @ 1min intervals right now...

SLIDER:

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/ ... mmb-slider