ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[FLpanhandle91]

looks like another wobble to the right.. nearly due north on this pass maybe a nne wobble..

Recon is finding the center is NNW of last fix. Not seeing the wobble to the right you are mentioning. Curious to hear your thoughts on the wobble.

yeah it was there position and brief heading at the end of the last set that looked like that turned north early.

Until I see a definite center fix, It does appear that Nate is moving at 340 to 350 degrees.

[PTPatrick]

looks like HWF is going to end with landfall at MS/AL line 970s and near 90 mph...which given that it is stronger than it initialized definitely gives me concern for a cat 2.

That would be very serious for Mobile bay and surge potential.

current NHC track is basically right over the MS/AL state line where family lives...which is why the surge maps posted in NHC websites have kind of thrown me for a loop. They seem to have highest surge in Hancock even with center coming in a good bit to the east. I told mom to prep for 10 feet. If their track verifies seems like MObile bay will be on the high side of the 5 to 8 and probably more like 6-10

EDIT: next HWRF frame is in and its sitting over Grand Bay AL at 30 hours

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 070452
AF307 0716A NATE HDOB 52 20171007
044230 2249N 08615W 8430 01416 //// +190 //// 215047 050 044 002 01
044300 2251N 08616W 8426 01415 //// +190 //// 216042 045 040 003 01
044330 2252N 08617W 8435 01398 //// +195 //// 219037 040 041 001 05
044400 2252N 08619W 8424 01409 //// +193 //// 223034 037 038 001 05
044430 2254N 08620W 8424 01405 //// +192 //// 219026 033 029 001 05
044500 2255N 08621W 8425 01405 9884 +202 +195 228015 022 024 002 03
044530 2256N 08622W 8432 01397 9879 +212 +193 242008 012 021 000 03
044600 2257N 08623W 8427 01402 9876 +216 +196 207002 005 015 000 03
044630 2259N 08624W 8430 01398 9878 +208 +198 088005 007 015 000 03
044700 2300N 08625W 8436 01395 9880 +211 +192 072012 013 017 001 03
044730 2300N 08625W 8436 01395 9888 +203 +186 071015 015 018 001 00
044800 2303N 08627W 8426 01411 9893 +202 +180 072018 019 020 001 03
044830 2304N 08629W 8431 01413 9898 +201 +188 070019 020 024 000 00
044900 2305N 08630W 8429 01417 9900 +203 +189 065020 021 025 000 00
044930 2306N 08631W 8434 01414 9907 +196 +192 067019 020 029 001 00
045000 2308N 08633W 8427 01423 9906 +209 +170 068020 021 031 002 00
045030 2309N 08634W 8431 01422 9909 +211 +163 073023 023 032 000 00
045100 2310N 08635W 8429 01428 9915 +206 +166 077024 024 032 001 03
045130 2311N 08637W 8430 01427 9920 +202 +169 080024 025 030 001 03
045200 2313N 08638W 8429 01434 9926 +193 +174 088028 031 030 001 00
$$
;

Pressure 988mb.

[FLpanhandle91]

Bear in mind that the Florida panhandle/AL gulf coast haven't seen a situation like this since Ivan/Dennis is '04 and '05. Did A LOT of pruning the oak trees around the house today. I expect widespread power outages due to foliage coming down. This area is littered with oak trees.

[Janie2006]

This is bad. Really bad. Nate is booking it and a lot of people are going to wake up to a very nasty surprise tomorrow....with very little time left for preps.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through 12:52am EDT:

[Aric Dunn]

per recon.. at least pressure wise the strengthening has paused.

[chaser1]

WHOA?!!!!! Turned away to get stuff done and forget about how rapidly Nates inner core has expanded...... is it going due north??????? I flipped from one satellite resolution to another to another. 20 knots of forward motion doesnt as commonly lend a large storm to "jog" nearly as much as a slow moving storm might. I'm concerned that the COC is practically getting forced/aided by fast moving southerly (or SSW) winds a tad higher up than 500mb; We already know the storm is asymmetric as it is, so it stands to reason the mid level vortex might be getting a bit yanked more to the right. I'd be putting my hurricane prep into full-on if I were in Pensacola, and east a good 100 miles.

[Janie2006]

per recon.. at least pressure wise the strengthening has paused.

A glimmer of good news, for the moment.

[bella_may]

Unless the models show a huge shift we can't put too much stock in them at this point. Kinda just have to watch and see... I say biloxi or 20 miles east or west of there is the safest bet at this point

[ConvergenceZone]

Anyone think a Cat 2 is possible? Or do you think it will run out of time?

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 070502
AF307 0716A NATE HDOB 53 20171007
045230 2314N 08639W 8426 01440 9930 +192 +175 091033 037 035 002 03
045300 2315N 08641W 8424 01444 9937 +185 //// 092040 045 039 005 01
045330 2317N 08642W 8433 01439 9955 +176 //// 087052 054 044 005 01
045400 2318N 08644W 8433 01446 9964 +180 //// 076059 061 040 005 01
045430 2319N 08645W 8423 01459 9973 +179 //// 075063 066 039 004 01
045500 2321N 08647W 8432 01458 9979 +185 +185 071061 064 036 011 00
045530 2322N 08648W 8427 01468 9985 +183 +183 074060 061 037 009 00
045600 2323N 08650W 8433 01467 9992 +183 +183 074055 060 039 007 03
045630 2324N 08651W 8428 01479 9995 +175 //// 078051 052 035 006 01
045700 2325N 08652W 8430 01478 //// +174 //// 076050 052 033 002 01
045730 2327N 08654W 8431 01482 //// +183 //// 076049 051 030 002 05
045800 2328N 08655W 8438 01475 9989 +182 +180 076051 052 031 002 01
045830 2329N 08656W 8429 01485 9992 +182 +177 079051 052 031 001 05
045900 2331N 08658W 8429 01492 9994 +188 +172 082047 050 029 000 03
045930 2332N 08659W 8429 01494 9998 +186 +168 081046 048 027 001 03
050000 2333N 08701W 8424 01499 9999 +182 +168 085045 047 026 001 05
050030 2334N 08702W 8428 01499 0007 +177 +173 093044 044 027 001 03
050100 2336N 08704W 8429 01500 0006 +185 +166 096044 045 025 002 00
050130 2337N 08705W 8430 01500 0008 +185 +164 097045 046 025 001 03
050200 2338N 08707W 8430 01501 0009 +186 +167 097045 046 024 002 00
$$
;

[Dean4Storms]

Anyone think a Cat 2 is possible? Or do you think it will run out of time?

Certainly possible after seeing what happened this evening.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Anyone think a Cat 2 is possible? Or do you think it will run out of time?

Very likely, may even become a cat 3 at this rate

[Sanibel]

GOM can do weird things to hurricanes...

[ktulu909]

Anyone think a Cat 2 is possible? Or do you think it will run out of time?

Nothing more than a hobbyist here,so what do I know,but at this rate its more likely than not. Weather channel is even saying maybe more.

[SouthDadeFish]

Pressure falls temporarily paused, but wind field is becoming much better defined within inner-core. I think next 6 hours are key. If western eyewall closes off during this time then further RI is possible. Otherwise the 00Z HWRF solution could be possible.

[NDG]

Pressure down another mb.

000
URNT12 KNHC 070506
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL162017
A. 07/04:46:20Z
B. 22 deg 58 min N
086 deg 24 min W
C. 850 mb 1328 m
D. 55 kt
E. 140 deg 16 nm
F. 218 deg 64 kt
G. 142 deg 18 nm
H. 987 mb
I. 19 C / 1526 m
J. 22 C / 1516 m
K. 20 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 08
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF307 0716A NATE OB 25
MAX FL WIND 89 KT 123 / 52 NM 03:05:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 195 / 5 KT

[Chris_in_Tampa]

1:02am EDT:

[CrazyC83]

URNT12 KNHC 070506
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL162017
A. 07/04:46:20Z
B. 22 deg 58 min N
086 deg 24 min W
C. 850 mb 1328 m
D. 55 kt
E. 140 deg 16 nm
F. 218 deg 64 kt
G. 142 deg 18 nm
H. 987 mb
I. 19 C / 1526 m
J. 22 C / 1516 m
K. 20 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 08
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF307 0716A NATE OB 25
MAX FL WIND 89 KT 123 / 52 NM 03:05:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 195 / 5 KT
;