ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

3500 CAPE and 361 Theta-E on the NE side of the CoC.
In fact, Theta-E is intensifying and being drawn into the center.
Should get a real strong feeder band kick in soon.

[Kingarabian]

Not a single mention on the front pages of CNN.com/Foxnews.com about this immense threat.

Wait until it actually gets going, the news will be all over it like they were with Matthew and residents of Cape Canaveral....

Well with Matthew people had time to prepare as coverage started earlier. But this is a natural disaster that is less than a day and half away. How are you going to buy necessity items, board your house up, sand bag it, in such little time.

[Kingarabian]

3500 CAPE and 361 Theta-E on the NE side of the CoC.
In fact, Theta-E is intensifying and being drawn into the center.
Should get a real strong feeder band kick in soon.

Do you think the SW quadrant has much to be desired?

[Ntxw]

Not a single mention on the front pages of CNN.com/Foxnews.com about this immense threat.

Wait until it actually gets going, the news will be all over it like they were with Matthew and residents of Cape Canaveral....

Well with Matthew people had time to prepare as coverage started earlier. But this is a natural disaster that is less than a day and half away. How are you going to buy necessity items, board your house up, sand bag it, in such little time.

Yeah, it's probably too late for them to do any major preparation. Best solution is to get out.

[KWT]

Regardless of potenial intensity, its been known for at least a few days that flooding is going to be a major risk with this one, and I sadly think alot of people will get caught out by that alone, not even taking into consideration the chance of much higher winds than planned.

[Cpv17]

Could anyone possibly tell me how much wind I could expect here in Wharton County if a cat 3 or 4 were to make landfall near Corpus Christi?

[NDG]

Within the next 10 minutes or so recon will let us know how strong Harvey has gotten since the last recon pass 4 hours ago.

[GCANE]

3500 CAPE and 361 Theta-E on the NE side of the CoC.
In fact, Theta-E is intensifying and being drawn into the center.
Should get a real strong feeder band kick in soon.

Do you think the SW quadrant has much to be desired?

Not at the moment.
Pretty low Theta-E.
However, I think it will change tonight.
Yesterday afternoon over Mexico there were some small popups struggling to form.
Indicated to me there was moisture in the boundary layer but dry above it.
With the outflow from Harvey, the mid-layer should moisten real well today.

[WeatherGuesser]

To be honest people should've been prepping since this past weekend when the models changed their tracks and started sending this into Texas.

Alyono prepped canned goods and water well in advance.

I **always** have a 3-4 week supply of food and drink on hand. Wouldn't do me much good though if the house was destroyed and it was spread all over a couple of acres.

[hd44]

Within the next 10 minutes or so recon will let us know how stronger Harvey has gotten since the last recon pass 4 hours ago.

Im going 985 and 70 mph ... lets see.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Could anyone possibly tell me how much wind I could expect here in Wharton County if a cat 3 or 4 were to make landfall near Corpus Christi?

Ask a pro met for the correct answer bro. And then hope there is no tornado spawned.

[NDG]

Is getting that classical comma shape

[tolakram]

Could anyone possibly tell me how much wind I could expect here in Wharton County if a cat 3 or 4 were to make landfall near Corpus Christi?

There is no definitive answer to this question. You've seen the models, you can call or otherwise check with your NWS office to get a prediction. The final answer will be if/when/where the storm stalls and how long it stays over an area. You should be prepared for the worst and hope for the best.

This is the GFS total precip map from the 6Z run. It's one model and probably not the exact solution.



Here is the weather prediction center with links to some of their rainfall estimates embedded on the page.

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#

The NHC also has links and images for rainfall totals. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/092930.shtml?rainqpf#contents

[NDG]

Pressure down to around 985mb!!!!!!!!!

112600 2344N 09255W 8430 01367 9853 +199 +189 139015 019 019 000 03

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Not a single mention on the front pages of CNN.com/Foxnews.com about this immense threat.

Wait until it actually gets going, the news will be all over it like they were with Matthew and residents of Cape Canaveral....

Well with Matthew people had time to prepare as coverage started earlier. But this is a natural disaster that is less than a day and half away. How are you going to buy necessity items, board your house up, sand bag it, in such little time.

Yea, agreed. Even if it doesn't become a major hurricane, the impacts still look quite extreme with respect to flooding as well. But it's definitely looking like Harvey could break the almost 12-year streak this AM.

[RL3AO]

11 mb drop in four hours.

[Ntxw]

Pressure down to around 985mb!!!!!!!!!

112600 2344N 09255W 8430 01367 9853 +199 +189 139015 019 019 000 03

RI, GFS doesn't look so crazy now.

[hd44]

Pressure down to around 985mb!!!!!!!!!

112600 2344N 09255W 8430 01367 9853 +199 +189 139015 019 019 000 03

Called it wow.

[RL3AO]

Also signs of an eyewall.

[NDG]

That pressure drop should be a big wake up call this morning for people to evacuate when the message gets passed along to coastal residents by the media.