ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Those flood models from boarder to boarder aint new. Just those should have been enough
for pre-preparation.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/900666100031127552




Eric Blake
These are the days that we train for all year @ @NHC_Atlantic - please take #Harvey seriously & put your #hurricane plan into action! #Texas
6:28 AM - Aug 24, 2017

[ScottNAtlanta]

Within the next 10 minutes or so recon will let us know how stronger Harvey has gotten since the last recon pass 4 hours ago.

Im going 985 and 70 mph ... lets see.

Well recon just measured 985 so you are halfway there

[AubreyStorm]

Well, well! Today I will go up to Aubrey!

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Need to sample the NE quad, could see some high-end TS winds there.

[hd44]

Need to sample the NE quad, could see some high-end TS winds there.

70 or 75 mph likely.985 pressure is indicating of cat 1 cane usually.(low end cat 1)

[RL3AO]

A special advisory to increase forecast winds to near 100 knots probably necessary. A crazy morning at NHC.

[Texas Snowman]

Pressure down to around 985mb!!!!!!!!!

112600 2344N 09255W 8430 01367 9853 +199 +189 139015 019 019 000 03

RI, GFS doesn't look so crazy now.

I'm beginning to wonder about that 923 mb NAM run a couple of days ago.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

mass low level cloud on earlier microwaves was a good inderaction a future eyewall coming
was just a matter of wrapping tighter.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Need to sample the NE quad, could see some high-end TS winds there.

70 or 75 mph likely.985 pressure is indicating of cat 1 cane usually.(low end cat 1)

Winds usually take a little longer to catch up with that much of a MSLP drop, but no doubt they will soon, especially for a small storm like Harvey.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Pressure down to around 985mb!!!!!!!!!

112600 2344N 09255W 8430 01367 9853 +199 +189 139015 019 019 000 03

Thats T4 ATL= cat1

[msp]

also of note: appears to be already to the right of the forecast track

[NDG]

Amazing, just 24 hrs ago the models were forecasting Harvey to be just a weak 1004 mb storm this morning.

[Ntxw]

Pressure down to around 985mb!!!!!!!!!

112600 2344N 09255W 8430 01367 9853 +199 +189 139015 019 019 000 03

Thats T4 ATL= cat1

Yeah, dvorak is not needed when you have recon, but in other basins it would be T4

[hd44]

00z Ecmwf model is laughably low on intensity. Gfs got it right as I can see anyone wana chime in'..

[NDG]

62 knot flight level winds in the SE quadrant, should be upgraded to at least 50 knots. Highter winds probably in the NE quadrant though.

112900 2338N 09248W 8424 01423 9916 +180 +178 205060 062 043 003 01
112930 2337N 09247W 8425 01429 9921 +188 +172 203060 062 046 005 00
113000 2336N 09246W 8434 01434 9944 +176 +171 206059 060 049 009 00

[NDG]

00z Ecmwf model is laughably low on intensity. Gfs got it right as I can see anyone wana chime in'..

Yes the Euro has been very inconsistent this year on strength.

[deltadog03]

EURO is laughable on intensity at best right now.

[KWT]

Need to sample the NE quad, could see some high-end TS winds there.

70 or 75 mph likely.985 pressure is indicating of cat 1 cane usually.(low end cat 1)

Winds usually take a little longer to catch up with that much of a MSLP drop, but no doubt they will soon, especially for a small storm like Harvey.

Yeah I suspect we will look at a wind ramp up in 9-12hrs time, but the pressure drop is VERY worrying, its already deeper than the ECM ever gets this before landfall.

Certainly suggesting an RI is now underway with that sort of pressure drop.

I wouldn't stress too much about wobble wars right now, a rapidly strengthening system will whip around somewhat along its trajectory.

[SouthDadeFish]

Folks, this is a very serious situation. Hurricane impacts are essentially guaranteed at this point. Considering recent observations and modeling simulations, there is a very real possibility the US has its first landfalling major hurricane since 2005. Residents in the path of the storm need to listen to their local emergency management and take the necessary precautions. If you have friends or family in the path of the storm, please make sure they are ready for the impact of a hurricane.