ATL: HARVEY - Models

[jasons2k]

This is gonna be a real doozie for the Houston area. Incredible rain and flooding with this run, as it almost parks with us on the dirty side. I'm glad I already stocked-up.

[AubreyStorm]

00z GFS through hour 84:

WHATTT!
I live in Aubrey, Texas

[Steve]

987mb sounds close to right on that track but maybe a little high. I could see 960s and maybe even low 960s on that track if things went right.

[Cpv17]

Huge difference so far between the 18z and 0z. The 18z exited the area on Wednesday where this one exits the area by Sunday. Way less rainfall on this run.

[ROCK]

Well this run is absolutely is worst track acenario moving N NE into Freeport west end of Galveston would hammered by the right quad and of course I had to move closer to the coast..

[South Texas Storms]

I really don't like the 0z GFS solution. Would be quite the storm for the Houston area. We'll see if there's an east trend in the other models tonight.

[TexWx]

Those runs couldn't be any worse for Houston.
jeez

[Janie2006]

A whole lotta questions on the table for this system. A bit further east and north, but then what happens after landfall.....does it take the "classic car cruise" down Interstate 10? Inch its way to Memphis? RI prior to landfall? Hrmmmmm.

[South Texas Storms]

0z Canadian is slightly southwest through 30 hours.

[Steve]

Strange thing is that GFS is starting to pop 92L out of the pattern at 96. I haven't even looked at that all day. Things got busy. Haha

[AxaltaRacing24]

CMC @ 30Hrs (farther south)

[jasons2k]

987mb sounds close to right on that track but maybe a little high. I could see 960s and maybe even low 960s on that track if things went right.

I could too. The fact that the GFS is showing 987mb this rapidly is concerning. Pretty good run, the most plausible of the day, so I think we're finally getting there. I can't stay up for the Euro, but I think I've seen what I need to see for the night. Time to rest up - a long few days ahead. The hype will start in earnest tomorrow...

[Cpv17]

I really don't like the 0z GFS solution. Would be quite the storm for the Houston area. We'll see if there's an east trend in the other models tonight.

Honestly, the last 4 or 5 runs of the GFS would clobber Houston.This run is actually better overall for everyone. It only lingers around for 3 days instead of 5 days. Way less flooding.

[Wx_Warrior]

Louisiana getting hammered on Sunday....Going to have to deal with a ton of water. I know my brother (KFDM Met in Beaumont) is ready. I work for a newspaper so I will be out in it and will post photos when I can.

[msp]

0z Canadian is slightly southwest through 30 hours.

It has a very pronounced westward component to Harvey's motion over the next 24hrs

[tolakram]

Honestly, the last 4 or 5 runs of the GFS would clobber Houston.This run is actually better overall for everyone. It only lingers around for 3 days instead of 5 days. Way less flooding.

Not sure what you are seeing, though it moved east rainfall looks same to worse.

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS hours 96-126:

[South Texas Storms]

0z Canadian is slightly southwest through 30 hours.

It has a very pronounced westward component to Harvey's motion over the next 24hrs

Yep which is similar to what the hurricane models show (HMON and HWRF).

[Cpv17]

Honestly, the last 4 or 5 runs of the GFS would clobber Houston.This run is actually better overall for everyone. It only lingers around for 3 days instead of 5 days. Way less flooding.

Not sure what you are seeing, though it moved east rainfall looks same to worse.

I'll show you.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Wide View of the GFS @132 Hrs