ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Folks, this is a very serious situation. Hurricane impacts are essentially guaranteed at this point. Considering recent observations and modeling simulations, there is a very real possibility the US has its first landfalling major hurricane since 2005. Residents in the path of the storm need to listen to their local emergency management and take the necessary precautions. If you have friends or family in the path of the storm, please make sure they are ready for the impact of a hurricane.

I totally agree, the drought has a good chance of coming to an end each hour that passes by.

[Kingarabian]

Very close to hurricane status.

At the rate it's going, it could be a borderline cat.2 before recon leaves.

[KWT]

EURO is laughable on intensity at best right now.

Yeah its not even in the ballpark, throw out the 00z thats for sure!

Also worth noting the model that is closest to this current deepening...NAM 3km which drops this sub 900mbs...

[Pearl River]

What's the steering currents look like for a much stronger storm, since it appears the models weren't looking at it to strengthen this quickly? Or was that taken into affect?

Thanks.

Mike

[MGC]

Houston, we've got a problem.....wow Harvey has got his act together overnight. A bombing storm with a few hundred miles of very warm ocean ahead of it. Can we say possible major at landfall? ULL is gone, looks like a good upper environment for Harvey to continue to intensify till Texas coast.....MGC

[hurricaneCW]

It's likely going to be a major before the day is over, once an eye pops out it's going to quicken it intensification and go from a Cat 1 to a 3.

[Portastorm]

Houston, we've got a problem.....wow Harvey has got his act together overnight. A bombing storm with a few hundred miles of very warm ocean ahead of it. Can we say possible major at landfall? ULL is gone, looks like a good upper environment for Harvey to continue to intensify till Texas coast.....MGC

Yessir. Unfortunately the worst case scenario for us appears to be unfolding. I hope my fellow Texans in the southern half of the state understand this is a LIFE THREATENING situation and that they are finalizing preparations.

[OntarioEggplant]

The one bright side... If there is one... Is that if it undergoes explosive deepening today, there should be plenty of time for it to undergo an eyewall replacement cycle prior to landfall tomorrow night.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Any bets on how long before we see an eye? I say about 2 hours

[galvestontx]

What's the steering currents look like for a much stronger storm, since it appears the models weren't looking at it to strengthen this quickly? Or was that taken into affect?

Thanks.

Mike

My thoughts too, I thought stronger storms go more poleward.

[NDG]

Where Recon found the COC of Harvey, right in the middle of the CDO.

[Kingarabian]

The one bright side... If there is one... Is that if it undergoes explosive deepening today, there should be plenty of time for it to undergo an eyewall replacement cycle prior to landfall tomorrow night.

That's only if it tapers off and the Ri period is over. 36 hours sometimes is not enough time for RI to finish.

[KWT]

The one bright side... If there is one... Is that if it undergoes explosive deepening today, there should be plenty of time for it to undergo an eyewall replacement cycle prior to landfall tomorrow night.

Possibly, but that would only extend the wind radius and therefore range of severe rainfall totals, so even though it may reduce the amount of strength, it would mean flooding could be an even bigger issue.

The word needs to get out today that this is potentially a dangerous situation unfolding.

[Kingarabian]

How far is the nearest radar?

[GCANE]

37GHz

[NDG]

Official pressure from the VDM, 986mb, that is still a good drop, 10 mb in 4 hours!

URNT12 KNHC 241152
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092017
A. 24/11:25:20Z
B. 23 deg 43 min N
092 deg 58 min W
C. 850 mb 1306 m
D. 51 kt
E. 292 deg 14 nm
F. 013 deg 54 kt
G. 290 deg 20 nm
H. 986 mb
I. 17 C / 1525 m
J. 21 C / 1526 m
K. 19 C / NA
L. OPEN NW
M. C24
N. 12345 / 08
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF309 1209A HARVEY OB 06
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 62 KT 122 / 9 NM 11:29:00Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 325 / 3 KT

[Kingarabian]

Where Recon found the COC of Harvey, right in the middle of the CDO.

Thankfully it's rather a small storm

[tropicwatch]

Just woke up am I seeing this right close to 985mb?

[ScottNAtlanta]

I'm guessing national media will latch on to this today. Hopefully no panic

[Kingarabian]

37GHz

There it is. Tight small core, very susceptible for continued rapid intensification.