ATL: IRMA - Models

[AxaltaRacing24]

Seems to be dipping more wsw this run compared to the 18zGFS

Slightly faster and more south. HMMM

[SouthFLTropics]

It's definitely quicker and more SW than the 18z

[SunnyThoughts]

Is it weaker than last run?

[sma10]

Thru 84hrs has closed the gap slightly with the 96hr Euro, but still lagging behind. I imagine this run will look similar to previous

[AxaltaRacing24]

[SouthFLTropics]

Is it weaker than last run?

3mb stronger at 90 hours

[AxaltaRacing24]

Is it weaker than last run?

No. It is equivalent so far.

[Kingarabian]

Should begin lifting out to the WNW soon as it begins to slow at hour 96.

[AxaltaRacing24]

[SouthFLTropics]

Looks like it bottomed out the dive at 90 hours...at 96 it is headed WNW. Not sure I buy that abrupt course change.

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS hours 72-96:

[tgenius]

Looks like it bottomed out the dive at 90 hours...at 96 it is headed WNW. Not sure I buy that abrupt course change.

It appears to be not as much of a WSW compared to Euro too.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Not that it probably means much but in regards to Harvey and the second landfall, the euro nailed it days before the gfs had any idea what to do with him. The gfs was south and west and dissipate. North, west and dissipate. And when it finally did show him in the gulf was always due north through Houston and up into east Texas. Never got it right. Sure the euro could be wrong this go around but would definitely put more money on it being more right than wrong compared to the gfs.

Also just can't get over how many times the gfs has always showed a system turning and moving north out of the atlantic only to go out to sea or hit the NE only for it to end up going much further west then it showed. The euro with the southern solution and the gfs being so close to the east coast and then lifting due north in New England should really open people's eyes in Florida and the gulf. Of course everyones in Texas and LA are already glued to the tropics and will be the rest of the season I'm sure.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Looks like it bottomed out the dive at 90 hours...at 96 it is headed WNW. Not sure I buy that abrupt course change.

Just put the model's flaws in the back of your mind. Since you know it's going to turn into the ridge a bit too quickly, just keep it in mind after it shows landfall.

[pcolaman]

72 to 96 looks like bumping the ridge

[sma10]

Looks like it bottomed out the dive at 90 hours...at 96 it is headed WNW. Not sure I buy that abrupt course change.

Still sticking to its guns by changing from wsw to wnw almost immediately. Essentially, this is the ballgame as it is the main difference between itself and Euro/HWRF

[AxaltaRacing24]

Trend

[Miami Storm Tracker]

I would go with a gradual west to WNW climb but an abrupt sudden NW turn can't see it.

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like it bottomed out the dive at 90 hours...at 96 it is headed WNW. Not sure I buy that abrupt course change.

Looks like it's more north of due west

[AxaltaRacing24]

I would go with a gradual west to WNW climb but an abrupt sudden NW turn can't see it.

I agree. Nothing against the GFS but I just cannot see this storm immediately turning NW into a ridge that quickly.