WPAC: NORU - Low

[euro6208]

JTWC is up to 5.5.

TPPN10 PGTW 301231

A. TYPHOON 07W (NORU)

B. 30/1200Z

C. 22.87N

D. 141.38E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T5.5/5.5/D2.0/24HRS STT: D1.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.0. ADDED 1.0 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 6.0. MET YIELDS A 5.0 AND PT YIELDS A 5.5. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
30/0825Z 23.07N 141.50E SSMS
30/0957Z 22.82N 141.48E MMHS
30/1119Z 22.72N 141.13E MMHS


BERMEA

[euro6208]

07W NORU 170730 1200 22.9N 141.4E WPAC 95 954

[NotoSans]

Up to 80 knots and 955 mb from the JMA.

[euro6208]

RAW T approaching 6.5...

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 946.8mb/109.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.8 5.9 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km

Center Temp : +14.2C Cloud Region Temp : -70.7C

[euro6208]

[1900hurricane]

Whew.

[NotoSans]

A reasonable Dvorak fix from the SAB.

TXPQ23 KNES 301531
TCSWNP

A. 07W (NORU)

B. 30/1430Z

C. 22.8N

D. 141.3E

E. ONE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T6.0/6.0/D2.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...WMG EYE IN EMBEDDED IN LG AND SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS A DT OF
6.0 AFTER 1.0 IS ADDED AS AN EYE ADJUSTMENT. 6-HOUR AVERAGE DT IS 5.75,
WHICH JUSTIFY BREAKING CONSTRAINTS AT THIS TIME. MET=5.0 AND PT=5.5. FT
IS BASED ON RAPID INTENSIFICATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIM

[shah83]

GFS is consistently doing weird and unlikely things with this scenario...

[Ntxw]

Maybe soon first STY of the season? ACE raker for sure

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 JUL 2017 Time : 151000 UTC
Lat : 22:50:53 N Lon : 141:07:51 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 944.6mb/112.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 6.0 6.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 22 km

Center Temp : +15.6C Cloud Region Temp : -75.0C

Scene Type : EYE

[dexterlabio]

So the long tracker and big ACE raker (potentially) of this season originated from the subtropics. Interesting.

[1900hurricane]

Just posted a new blog entry. Unsurprisingly, I mostly discuss Noru in this one.

Western Pacific Tropical Analysis: July 30, 2017

[mrbagyo]

Getting more symmetrical with each frame, eye temp is also rising. NORU must be a major typhoon now and still has a legit shot at STY status

Whats the current total ACE output of Noru as of now?

[NotoSans]

Up to 115kt according to the latest ATCF update.
07W NORU 170730 1800 22.8N 141.0E WPAC 115 937

[Ntxw]

115kts seems a little conservative to me given presentation.

[NotoSans]

The JTWC seems too aggressive on this one.

07W NORU 170730 1800 22.8N 140.9E WPAC 140 912

[1900hurricane]

The JTWC seems too aggressive on this one.

07W NORU 170730 1800 22.8N 140.9E WPAC 140 912

Wow, really? That's a pretty absurd jump. First category 5 for 2017?

[NotoSans]

Yep. Consistent with their T7.0 Dvorak estimate (which I don't agree either). 12Z intensity has been bumped upward to 115kt as well.

TPPN10 PGTW 301825

A. SUPER TYPHOON 07W (NORU)

B. 30/1740Z

C. 22.79N

D. 140.95E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T7.0/7.0/D3.5/24HRS STT: D1.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 1.0 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 7.0. MET YIELDS 5.0 AND PT YIELDS 6.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


LOWE

[Kingarabian]

Who's doing the Dvorak estimates at the JTWC? Eye is not clear/round enough to qualify for a cat. 5...

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Barring persistence, there's no doubt this is a Cat 5. In fact, if it was the East Pacific or Atlantic, it'd probably be 145-150kt.

[Yellow Evan]

Who's doing the Dvorak estimates at the JTWC? Eye is not clear/round enough to qualify for a cat. 5...

Eye is WMG and it has a thick W ring. T7.0 is good.