ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AutoPenalti]

Is it me or is this about to miss the 18z forecast point to its North? It stopped its WSW motion...moving due West.

[Ken711]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/904352145239146498

[Raebie]

First recon flight is at 5 PM today, correct?

[Hurricane Andrew]

She looks kinda sick this morning...inner core undisturbed, but outer convection dying from dry air.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[1900hurricane]

Looks like the dry air wrap has advanced even further into the circulation than it was yesterday.

https://i.imgur.com/4zZ7ruJ.jpg?1

I'm a bit confused, how do you get that's dry air from a scale that shows temperature?

Lower PW air emits higher brightness temperatures. It can make it confusing in the presence of convection if you don't know what you're looking for. You can cross-compare the 89 GHz brightness temperatures to the derived PWs in the updated post to see how they relate to each other.

[LarryWx]

**Edit: A bit after posting this analysis, I realized I had an error in it that makes it flat out wrong. For my follow up posts detailing my error, please go to the next page of this thread.**

The 11AM NHC coordinates are 17.7N, 48.4W. That means that she is located to the south of all 50 0Z EPS members!! ALL of them are between 18N and 20.5N when at 48.4W. This is a very significant indicator and, therefore, I'm fully expecting further SW adjustments in the EPS mean and probably also in the more volatile Euro operational as well as general model consensus as we move forward. That means increased risks for the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, PR, and the entire NE Caribbean. This also means the risk for FL, Bahamas, Hispaniola (especially Dominican Republic), Cuba (especially eastern), and the US GOM coast is continuing to increase as the SW trends continue.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Honestly she looks pretty sick to me RN, if recon were to fly in, I'd predict they would find a weak C2, not a C3. But I am no pro...

[northjaxpro]

Excellent analysis Larry! You're on top of it. A very significant southward miss at 48.4 longitude as indicated in that post. Yeah, there will be likely continued subtle shifts of the models as time progresses.

[eastcoastFL]

Is it me or is this about to miss the 18z forecast point to its North? It stopped its WSW motion...moving due West.

I don't see it. Still appears to be heading wsw to me.

[SoupBone]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/904352145239146498

Notice that he was sure to include Houston in his cone? Nothing against Bastardi, but that was intentional.

[Hurricane Andrew]

I mean...wouldn't the circulation be impinged if it travels that close to the Hispanola shredder?

[robbielyn]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/904352145239146498

Notice that he was sure to include Houston in his cone? Nothing against Bastardi, but that was intentional.

that was early on. the first of the four pics is the current synopsis.

[BobHarlem]

Is it me or is this about to miss the 18z forecast point to its North? It stopped its WSW motion...moving due West.

I don't see it. Still appears to be heading wsw to me.

The clouds filled in the eye a bit, but it does appear to be moving more west than anything now if that continues it'll likely stop the south drift on the models (hoping at least, especially for the Caribbean islands).

[SFLcane]

The 11AM NHC coordinates are 17.7N, 48.4W. That means that she is located to the south of all 50 0Z EPS members!! ALL of them are between 18N and 20.5N when at 48.4W. This is a very significant indicator and, therefore, I'm fully expecting further SW adjustments in the EPS mean and probably also in the more volatile Euro operational as well as general model consensus as we move forward. That means increased risks for the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, PR, and the entire NE Caribbean. This also means the risk for FL, Bahamas, Hispaniola (especially Dominican Republic), Cuba (especially eastern), and the US GOM coast is continuing to increase as the SW trends continue.

Not what I'd like to here but fantastic post!

[SoupBone]

Notice that he was sure to include Houston in his cone? Nothing against Bastardi, but that was intentional.

that was early on. the first of the four pics is the current synopsis.

It says "with diminishing weight", not that it isn't still a consideration. Am I missing something?

[Extratropical94]

Is it me or is this about to miss the 18z forecast point to its North? It stopped its WSW motion...moving due West.

I don't see it. Still appears to be heading wsw to me.

The clouds filled in the eye a bit, but it does appear to be moving more west than anything now if that continues it'll likely stop the south drift on the models (hoping at least, especially for the Caribbean islands).

Looks like it. In the last frames you can see the eye getting closer to 18°N again.

[SouthDadeFish]

The 11AM NHC coordinates are 17.7N, 48.4W. That means that she is located to the south of all 50 0Z EPS members!! ALL of them are between 18N and 20.5N when at 48.4W. This is a very significant indicator and, therefore, I'm fully expecting further SW adjustments in the EPS mean and probably also in the more volatile Euro operational as well as general model consensus as we move forward. That means increased risks for the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, PR, and the entire NE Caribbean. This also means the risk for FL, Bahamas, Hispaniola (especially Dominican Republic), Cuba (especially eastern), and the US GOM coast is continuing to increase as the SW trends continue.

First of all, this likely belongs in the model thread, but regardless, I don't think this is correct. According to Brian Tang's page, verification looks to be well within the plume of 00Z ensembles. What information did you use to make this analysis?

[MetroMike]

NHC did not mention dry air intrusions for today. Do not believe it will affect the overall structure.

[Nimbus]

The eye wall replacement cycle wobbled Irma SW some of that motion was actually modeled.
Still hoping it goes north of todays 18Z forecast point.

[RL3AO]

Been busy most of the weekend so I've only occasionally checked the models. Watching closely in Raleigh and plan on getting some supplies to deal with potential power outages in the next day or two. Don't plan on dealing with a potential last minute rush.